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Athlone Town vs UCD Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 0-0
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
Vs
41%
27%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Athlone Town hosts UCD in a highly competitive First Division match, with both teams coming off wins in their previous encounters. The home side, Athlone Town, boasts a recent form note of coming off a win, having defeated Longford Town 2-1. However, their home form against similar opponents is less impressive, with an average of 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. Meanwhile, UCD has a recent form note of coming off a win, having thrashed Wexford 4-1, but their away form against similar opponents is also concerning, with an average of 1.54 goals scored and 2.15 conceded.

The model predicts a home win, with a 41% probability, making it the favourite. The model's selection is the home win. The draw is a 27% possibility, while an away win is a 33% chance. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, but the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has an 80.7% probability, with a 4% edge. The model's selection, Over 1.5, is the favourite.

Results analysis

Athlone Town's winning streak came to an abrupt end as they drew 0-0 with UCD, spoiling the pre-match favourite's chances. The win extends Athlone Town's run of coming off a win, but it was not enough to secure all three points. The model's home win selection was incorrect, as it had predicted a 41% chance of Athlone Town taking the win. Meanwhile, UCD's away win, which had a 33% pre-match probability, was a possible outcome, but ultimately did not materialise. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals, which had an 80.7% probability, missed the mark, as the final score was 0-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Athlone Town win✗ Miss
40.9%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.92
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Dafabet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Draw✓ Hit
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.36
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.58
Dafabet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
UCD win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.15
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.23
SBO
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Dafabet
2.20
Superbet
2.20

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L13L23L00D12L11D22D12L20W12LH·COB29/08A·BRA05/09A·TRE19/09H·KER22/09H·WEX26/09H·DUN03/10A·UCD10/10H·LON17/10H·COB10/07A·TRE24/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.970.931.530.932.40
vs Stronger (23)1.002.091.001.751.002.45
vs Similar (7)0.711.570.670.670.752.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W21W23L30W22D43W01L23L06L52WH·LON12/09H·KER19/09A·DUN26/09A·WEX05/10H·ATH10/10A·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.501.571.211.691.75
vs Stronger (3)1.670.001.000.002.000.00
vs Similar (6)1.331.171.001.001.671.33
vs Weaker (21)1.711.811.801.401.642.18
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.7%
@ 1.19+4.1%
Under 1.5
19.3%
@ 3.89-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.34
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.9%
@ 1.67+2.1%
Under 2.5
43.1%
@ 2.03-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.5%
@ 2.66+0.2%
Under 3.5
65.5%
@ 1.39-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.66
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.7%
@ 1.55+2.1%
No
39.3%
@ 2.20-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.06+5.3%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.53+4.4%
1-2
7.8%@ 7.95+2.4%
1-0
7.0%@ 10.09+2.8%
2-0
6.4%@ 14.83+3.5%
0-0 ✓
6.3%@ 11.66+2.6%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.73+2.2%
0-1
6.0%@ 8.51+1.0%
Athlone Town goals ↓
UCD goals →
01234
06.3%6.0%5.0%2.3%0.8%
17.0%12%7.8%3.6%1.3%
26.4%8.9%6.2%2.9%1.0%
33.4%4.7%3.2%1.5%0.5%
41.3%1.8%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athlone Town goals (down), columns = UCD goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
1.83
Longford Town
1.80
Bray Wanderers
1.80
Cork City
1.67
Treaty United
1.67
Athlone Town
1.67
Cobh Ramblers
1.50
UCD
1.33
Wexford
1.17
Finn Harps
0.00
Athlone Town is 0.33 points better than UCD in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bray Wanderers
2.80
Cork City
2.67
Longford Town
2.40
Kerry
2.17
UCD
1.83
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.17
Wexford
1.17
Cobh Ramblers
1.17
Finn Harps
0.33
Athlone Town is 0.33 goals worse than UCD in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Treaty United
1.17
Kerry
1.17
Cobh Ramblers
1.33
Longford Town
1.40
Bray Wanderers
1.40
Wexford
1.83
UCD
2.00
Cork City
2.33
Finn Harps
3.17
Athlone Town is 1.00 goals better than UCD in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L11D00D11D01L20W10W10W01LH·COB29/08A·BRA05/09A·TRE19/09H·KER22/09H·WEX26/09H·DUN03/10A·UCD10/10H·LON17/10H·COB10/07A·TRE24/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.400.670.471.07
vs Stronger (23)0.520.870.500.830.550.91
vs Similar (7)0.140.860.000.000.251.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D10W02L31W00D11D02L22DH·LON12/09H·KER19/09A·DUN26/09A·WEX05/10H·ATH10/10A·FIN17/10H·BRA24/10A·BRA28/10A·BRA10/07H·COR24/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.640.860.880.62
vs Stronger (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
vs Similar (6)0.670.670.670.670.670.67
vs Weaker (21)0.860.860.701.001.000.73
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.7%1.19
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
+4.1%✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (40)
€0m
FH (32)
€0m
TU (31)
€0m
BW (29)
€0m
CC (30)
€0m
KER (28)
€0m
AT (38)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
AT wins
2
Draws
3
UCD wins

Head-to-head

Athlone Town vs UCD · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
10/10/25AUCD Vs AT2-2
04/08/25HAT Vs UCD1-2
30/05/25AUCD Vs AT2-0
14/03/25HAT Vs UCD2-1
23/09/24HAT Vs UCD1-0
04/07/24AUCD Vs AT1-2
24/05/24HAT Vs UCD2-2
15/03/24AUCD Vs AT3-0

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26ATreaty United Vs AT2-1
10/07/26HAT Vs Cobh Ramblers2-0
17/10/25HAT Vs Longford Town1-2
10/10/25AUCD Vs AT2-2
03/10/25HAT Vs Dundalk1-1
26/09/25HAT Vs Wexford1-2
22/09/25HAT Vs Kerry0-0
19/09/25ATreaty United Vs AT3-2
05/09/25ABray Wanderers Vs AT3-1
29/08/25HAT Vs Cobh Ramblers0-3

UCDUCD

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26HUCD Vs Cork City5-2
10/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs UCD6-0
28/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs UCD3-2
24/10/25HUCD Vs Bray Wanderers0-1
17/10/25AFinn Harps Vs UCD3-4
10/10/25HUCD Vs Athlone Town2-2
05/10/25AWexford Vs UCD0-3
26/09/25ADundalk Vs UCD3-2
19/09/25HUCD Vs Kerry2-1
12/09/25HUCD Vs Longford Town2-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Athlone Town
Athlone Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL0.76
HomeDLDLW0.92
AwayLLLDL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%20%12%
AVG goals2.662.522.80
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored0.920.960.88
Conceded1.741.561.92
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---
UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.48
HomeWWDLW1.52
AwayLWWLL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.562.282.84
Over 1.5 %68%64%72%
Over 2.5 %42%32%52%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.301.281.32
Conceded1.261.001.52
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry611
50%
1.8
137+6
3.3
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
2Athlone TownAthlone Town610
50%
1.7
96+3
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
3Cork CityCork City610
50%
1.7
1614+2
5.0
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.72.3
-
4Treaty UnitedTreaty United610
50%
1.7
77+0
2.3
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
5Bray WanderersBray Wanderers59
60%
1.8
147+7
4.2
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.4
-
6Longford TownLongford Town59
60%
1.8
127+5
3.8
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
7Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers69
50%
1.5
78-1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8UCDUCD68
33%
1.3
1112-1
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
9WexfordWexford67
33%
1.2
711-4
3.0
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps60
0%
0.0
219-17
3.5
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.33.2
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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