Atlètic Club d'Escaldes are the clear favourite to win at home, a verdict the model reaches by weighing their strong home form against Esperança d'Andorra’s weaker away record. The home side averages 2.33 goals scored and concedes only 0.22 against weaker opponents, while the visitors average 0.56 scored and 2.89 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 11%. The most likely result is a home victory, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0 with an 11.2% chance, distinct from the expected total of 3.2 goals. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 7.5 (98.3%), Home +2 handicap (96.4%), Under 6.5 (95.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.4%), Under 5.5 (89.5%) and Home or Draw (88.8%). Each selection is listed with its probability, and the edge percentages are omitted where not provided.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win
69.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra win
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.10
1.81
0.88
1.36
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.81
1.14
1.71
0.78
1.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.36
0.29
2.33
0.22
2.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esperança d'Andorra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.90
0.67
1.60
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
2.65
0.25
2.38
0.56
2.89
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.9%
Under 2.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.0%
1-0
8.8%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.1%
0-0
4.9%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes goals ↓
Esperança d'Andorra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
2.7%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.8%
9.0%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
3
8.8%
7.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.1%
4.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atlètic Club d'Escaldes goals (down), columns = Esperança d'Andorra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes is 0.76 points better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes is 0.52 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes is 0.76 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes or Draw
88.8%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Atlètic Club d'Escaldes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes or Esperança d'Andorra
80.9%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Atlètic Club d'Escaldes + Esperança d'Andorra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Esperança d'Andorra
30.2%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Esperança d'Andorra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 3.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atlètic Club d'Escaldes, so a minus line means Atlètic Club d'Escaldes give that many goals of a start and Esperança d'Andorra receive them. At -1, Atlètic Club d'Escaldes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes)
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes -2
26.8%
Draw -2
20.8%
Esperança d'Andorra +2
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes)
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes -1
47.6%
Draw -1
22.1%
Esperança d'Andorra +1
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes)
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes +1
88.8%
Draw +1
7.6%
Esperança d'Andorra -1
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes)
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes +2
96.4%
Draw +2
2.8%
Esperança d'Andorra -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.12
0.31
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.75
0.71
0.71
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.00
1.44
0.00
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esperança d'Andorra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
1.18
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.69
0.56
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
1.06
0.43
1.00
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.29
0.89
0.22
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esperança d'Andorra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.33
0.73
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
1.47
0.12
1.12
0.56
1.78
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes's squad is €1m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Club d'Escaldes
FC Santa Coloma
Sporting Escaldes
Penya Encarnada
Ranger's
Ordino
Carroi
Casa de Portugal