This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.12
1.31
0.93
1.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.64
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
1.36
1.57
1.14
1.25
1.75
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.0%
1-0
13.4%
3-0
10.5%
1-1
9.2%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-1
6.2%
4-0
5.6%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Athletic Club goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
3.1%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
1
13%
9.2%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.8%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
5.6%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Athletic Club goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.29
Atletico Madrid
2.00
Real Madrid
1.79
Valencia
1.61
Getafe
1.55
Sevilla
1.55
Espanyol
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Real Sociedad
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.24
Leganes
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Levante
1.16
Celta Vigo
1.08
Valladolid
1.08
Girona
0.97
Huesca
0.87
Rayo Vallecano
0.84
Atletico Madrid is 0.61 points better than Athletic Club in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.37
Real Madrid
1.66
Sevilla
1.63
Levante
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.45
Celta Vigo
1.39
Valencia
1.34
Villarreal
1.29
Espanyol
1.26
Getafe
1.26
Eibar
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Real Betis
1.16
Huesca
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Athletic Club
1.08
Alaves
1.03
Girona
0.97
Leganes
0.97
Valladolid
0.84
Atletico Madrid is 0.37 goals better than Athletic Club in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.76
Getafe
0.92
Valencia
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Leganes
1.13
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.21
Real Madrid
1.21
Sevilla
1.24
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Valladolid
1.34
Real Betis
1.37
Villarreal
1.37
Girona
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.63
Huesca
1.71
Levante
1.74
Rayo Vallecano
1.84
Atletico Madrid is 0.42 goals better than Athletic Club in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 7.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
For 3.7 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.6 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.7
8.9
5.1
4.9
5.4
26.5
24.3
28.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
11.8
9.5
13.3
5.8
6.5
5.3
27.6
24.5
29.7
vs Weaker (45)
9.0
9.7
8.3
5.0
4.7
5.4
26.4
24.3
28.5
% over line
48%
56%
40%
70%
64%
76%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
52%
44%
60%
30%
36%
24%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.0
5.6
5.4
5.7
27.5
28.8
26.3
vs Stronger (9)
8.6
6.8
10.0
5.1
5.8
4.6
24.8
27.0
23.0
vs Similar (23)
10.0
10.7
9.2
5.8
5.2
6.4
27.7
27.5
27.8
vs Weaker (18)
8.8
9.3
8.3
5.5
5.4
5.6
28.7
31.2
26.2
% over line
44%
52%
36%
76%
68%
84%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
56%
48%
64%
24%
32%
16%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Real Madrid
10.7
Villarreal
10.6
Valladolid
10.6
Sevilla
10.5
Valencia
10.4
Real Sociedad
10.3
Huesca
10.2
Levante
10.1
Alaves
10.1
Eibar
9.9
Rayo Vallecano
9.7
Barcelona
9.7
Espanyol
9.5
Getafe
9.4
Celta Vigo
9.4
Real Betis
9.4
Atletico Madrid
9.3
Athletic Club
9.3
Girona
9.2
Leganes
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.6
Girona
5.8
Valencia
5.7
Valladolid
5.6
Levante
5.6
Athletic Club
5.6
Huesca
5.4
Villarreal
5.4
Espanyol
5.3
Real Betis
5.2
Atletico Madrid
5.1
Alaves
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Sevilla
5.0
Celta Vigo
4.9
Rayo Vallecano
4.8
Real Sociedad
4.6
Eibar
4.5
Barcelona
4.5
Real Madrid
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
31.4
Girona
29.5
Valladolid
29.3
Alaves
29.1
Huesca
28.3
Leganes
28.2
Valencia
28.1
Espanyol
27.9
Rayo Vallecano
27.9
Sevilla
27.8
Athletic Club
27.5
Villarreal
27.2
Levante
27.0
Atletico Madrid
26.5
Real Sociedad
26.1
Real Betis
25.9
Celta Vigo
25.7
Real Madrid
25.5
Eibar
24.9
Barcelona
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.5%
Under 3.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.10
0.69
0.06
0.50
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.33
-
-
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (27)
0.67
0.07
0.69
0.06
0.64
0.09
Clean sheet %
90% (+62pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.79
0.25
0.62
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.73
0.71
0.57
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.06
0.31
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.33
-
-
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (27)
0.89
0.59
1.06
0.31
0.64
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.86
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.64
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Athletic Club · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RV (23)
€76m
ALA (25)
€68m
LEG (26)
€30m
VAL (29)
€26m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €412m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€653m vs €241m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
ALA (8)
€24m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
HUE (9)
€2m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €184m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€290m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
RV (4)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €98m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€155m vs €57m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
VAL (12)
€10m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €131m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€208m vs €77m).
Spain: La Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Valencia
Sevilla
Getafe
Espanyol
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Alaves
Eibar
Leganes
Villarreal
Levante
Celta Vigo
Valladolid
Girona
Huesca
Rayo Vallecano