Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction & Stats

Atletico Madrid’s strong home form and Osasuna’s poor away record make the model’s favourite a home win. The model rates a 65 % chance for a victory at the Metropolitano, 22 % for a draw and 12 % for an Osasuna win, so the single most likely outcome is a home win. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most probable total number of goals being two, a 25 % chance. The scoreline the model sees as most likely is 2-0, with a 12.5 % probability. Atletico’s home attack averages 2.0 goals and concedes 1.18 against weaker opponents, while Osasuna’s away defence concedes 2.0 and scores none against stronger sides. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4 %, Under 7.5 at 99.2 %, Under 6.5 at 97.6 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.9 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.4 %, Under 5.5 at 93.6 %, Home or Draw at 89.2 % and Home +1 handicap at 89.2 %. These picks reflect the high confidence in a low-scoring, home-side dominated match.