Atromitos face PAOK in a tight, low-scoring clash where defensive solidity will be key. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for PAOK, 32% for a draw and 18% for Atromitos. The expected total goals sits at 1.9, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, giving the home side a 17.1% chance of conceding a lone goal. Atromitos, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged zero goals scored and one conceded. PAOK, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.17 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. The model’s selection Under 3.5 carries an 86.9% probability. Recent form adds context: Atromitos come after two straight defeats, while PAOK arrive fresh from a win. These figures suggest a cautious, defensive game with PAOK likely to edge out a narrow victory.
Results analysis
After a run of two straight defeats, Atromitos’ home form has stalled, while PAOK, fresh from a win, looked poised for a clean sweep on the road. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved accurate as PAOK secured a 0-2 victory. The predicted 2-goal total also materialised, with the model’s Under 3.5 selection hitting its mark at 86.9%. The model’s odds placed the away side at 50% for triumph, 32% for a draw, and 18% for a home win. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 3.5 hit, confirming the model’s overall accuracy for this encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atromitos win✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PAOK win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atromitos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.20
0.85
1.00
1.24
1.35
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.33
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.94
1.14
0.71
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
1.38
1.00
1.67
1.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
2.00
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.50
0.00
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.64
0.56
2.08
0.62
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.8%
Under 1.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.5%
Under 2.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.1%
Under 3.5
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.1%
No
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
17.1%
0-0
15.7%
1-1
13.4%
0-2 ✓
11.7%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
0-3
4.9%
2-1
4.0%
Atromitos goals ↓
PAOK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
17%
12%
4.9%
1.6%
1
8.4%
13%
7.7%
3.3%
1.0%
2
3.2%
4.0%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
3
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atromitos goals (down), columns = PAOK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.23
PAOK
2.13
Panathinaikos
1.90
AEK Athens FC
1.77
Panionios
1.73
Xanthi FC
1.60
Platanias
1.40
Atromitos
1.30
PAS Giannina
1.20
Kerkyra
1.07
Panetolikos
1.03
Iraklis 1908
0.97
Larisa
0.93
Asteras Tripolis
0.93
Levadiakos
0.87
Veria
0.73
Atromitos is 0.83 points worse than PAOK in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 2.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.90
AEK Athens FC
1.80
PAOK
1.73
Panathinaikos
1.50
Panionios
1.17
Xanthi FC
1.13
Platanias
1.13
Asteras Tripolis
1.13
PAS Giannina
1.00
Panetolikos
0.97
Atromitos
0.97
Iraklis 1908
0.93
Levadiakos
0.90
Larisa
0.77
Veria
0.77
Kerkyra
0.73
Atromitos is 0.77 goals worse than PAOK in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.53
PAOK
0.63
Panathinaikos
0.63
Panionios
0.77
AEK Athens FC
0.77
Xanthi FC
0.83
PAS Giannina
1.23
Atromitos
1.27
Platanias
1.27
Iraklis 1908
1.30
Panetolikos
1.33
Larisa
1.40
Kerkyra
1.43
Asteras Tripolis
1.63
Levadiakos
1.63
Veria
1.87
Atromitos is 0.63 goals worse than PAOK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atromitos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
PAOK
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Atromitos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Atromitos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atromitos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.38
0.31
0.41
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.25
0.57
0.29
0.33
0.22
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.20
0.73
0.13
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
0.76
0.16
0.85
0.15
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atromitos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atromitos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.46
0.69
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
0.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.43
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.88
0.67
1.33
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
1.27
0.40
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (25)
0.88
0.40
1.23
0.46
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atromitos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atromitos · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Zuber22%
Makana Baku20%
Denzel Jubitana16%
Ognjen Ožegović14%
Stavros Pnevmonidis14%
Sotiris Tsiloulis12%
Mansur12%
Brayan Palmezano11%
Gerasimos Mitoglou11%
Samuel Moutoussamy11%
Panagiotis Tsantilas10%
Georgios Tzovaras10%
Dimitrios Tsakmakis7%
Peter Michorl6%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos6%
Tom van Weert5%
Athanasios Karamanis5%
Theocharis Tsingaras3%
Lefteris Choutesiotis0%
Jere Uronen0%
Luka Gugeshashvili0%
Quini0%
Aitor García0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
Spyros Abartzidis0%
Mattheos Mountes0%
Ehije Ukaki0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitrios Tsakmakis47%
Luka Gugeshashvili33%
Ognjen Ožegović29%
Athanasios Karamanis29%
Peter Michorl28%
Quini28%
Theocharis Tsingaras25%
Georgios Papadopoulos25%
Spyros Abartzidis25%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos21%
Mattheos Mountes19%
Aitor García18%
Samuel Moutoussamy18%
Steven Zuber17%
Mansur15%
Lefteris Choutesiotis13%
Brayan Palmezano11%
Gerasimos Mitoglou11%
Jere Uronen10%
Stavros Pnevmonidis7%
Panagiotis Tsantilas7%
Denzel Jubitana6%
Ehije Ukaki6%
Makana Baku6%
Tom van Weert5%
Georgios Tzovaras5%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Peter Michorl22%
Aitor García18%
Makana Baku14%
Stavros Pnevmonidis14%
Sotiris Tsiloulis12%
Ehije Ukaki12%
Jere Uronen10%
Athanasios Karamanis10%
Theocharis Tsingaras9%
Ognjen Ožegović7%
Denzel Jubitana6%
Tom van Weert5%
Georgios Tzovaras5%
Mattheos Mountes4%
Lefteris Choutesiotis0%
Steven Zuber0%
Mansur0%
Brayan Palmezano0%
Samuel Moutoussamy0%
Luka Gugeshashvili0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Dimitrios Tsakmakis0%
Quini0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
Spyros Abartzidis0%
Panagiotis Tsantilas0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Zuber28%
Makana Baku17%
Denzel Jubitana13%
Ognjen Ožegović7%
Georgios Tzovaras5%
Panagiotis Tsantilas3%
Lefteris Choutesiotis0%
Jere Uronen0%
Theocharis Tsingaras0%
Peter Michorl0%
Mansur0%
Brayan Palmezano0%
Tom van Weert0%
Samuel Moutoussamy0%
Luka Gugeshashvili0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Dimitrios Tsakmakis0%
Quini0%
Aitor García0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
Spyros Abartzidis0%
Athanasios Karamanis0%
Mattheos Mountes0%
Stavros Pnevmonidis0%
Ehije Ukaki0%
Georgios Papadopoulos0%
PAOK · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rahman Baba33%
Anestis Mythou33%
Cherif Ndiaye0%
Jonjoe Kenny0%
Baptiste Santamaria0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Greg Taylor0%
Aritz Elustondo0%
Dimitrios Chatsidis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Greg Taylor33%
Cherif Ndiaye0%
Jonjoe Kenny0%
Baptiste Santamaria0%
Rahman Baba0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Aritz Elustondo0%
Anestis Mythou0%
Dimitrios Chatsidis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cherif Ndiaye0%
Jonjoe Kenny0%
Baptiste Santamaria0%
Rahman Baba0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Greg Taylor0%
Aritz Elustondo0%
Anestis Mythou0%
Dimitrios Chatsidis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cherif Ndiaye33%
Baptiste Santamaria33%
Dimitrios Chatsidis33%
Jonjoe Kenny0%
Rahman Baba0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Greg Taylor0%
Aritz Elustondo0%
Anestis Mythou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
I1 (25)
€9m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
PG (36)
€4m
Atromitos's squad is €70m less valuable than PAOK's (€12m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
PAN (11)
€7m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
Atromitos's attack is €27m less valuable than PAOK's (€3m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
LAR (3)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
PAN (1)
€0m
Atromitos's midfield is €26m less valuable than PAOK's (€2m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
LEV (9)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
Atromitos's defence is €18m less valuable than PAOK's (€6m vs €24m).
Greece: Super League 1 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
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Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens FC
Panionios
Xanthi FC
PAS Giannina
Panetolikos
Iraklis 1908
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
Levadiakos
Veria