PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Atyrau vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: 27/08/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Atyrau
Atyrau
Vs
31%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Atyrau win✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L30W01L11D00D01L22D10W14LH·FC 28/05A·ORD03/06H·FK 24/06A·FK 02/07H·ORD15/07A·FC 22/07H·ZHE30/07A·SHA05/08H·KAS12/08A·FK 19/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.671.311.311.061.94
vs Stronger (12)0.921.581.250.750.752.00
vs Similar (18)1.331.721.331.561.331.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W41W22D12L42W11D11D01L11DA·SHA15/07H·KAI22/07A·TOR27/07A·KAS30/07H·TOR03/08H·KAI06/08A·SEP10/08A·FK 13/08H·SEP17/08H·FK 20/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.102.201.001.601.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)2.121.242.381.001.891.44
vs Weaker (13)1.620.922.001.001.170.83
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.6%
Under 3.5
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.2%
0-0 ✓
10.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.6%
Atyrau goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
01234
010%10%7.5%3.2%1.0%
18.7%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
25.6%7.3%4.7%2.0%0.7%
32.1%2.7%1.8%0.8%0.2%
40.6%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atyrau goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
Atyrau is 0.62 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.92).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
Atyrau is 0.77 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.69).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
Atyrau is 0.15 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 0.88).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AtyrauAtyrau

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AktobeAktobe

For 4.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

130653544466752118810137H·SEPA·SEPH·TORA·TORH·OKZA·ZHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

90213224433123363567459H·SEPA·SEPH·TORA·TORA·FC H·OKZA·ZHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 14.7 · Total 27.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

290121211181414242928H·SEPA·SEPH·TOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AtyrauAtyrau

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (46)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (18)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.510.78.30.80.61.027.026.029.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)10.010.79.01.31.31.327.026.029.0
vs Weaker (27)7.0-7.00.30.00.7---
% over line50%67%33%12%8%16%100%100%100%
% under line50%33%67%88%92%84%0%0%0%
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.5
FC Astana
9.2
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
Ordabasy
6.3
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.2
Aktobe
5.6
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
FC Astana
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
31.4
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
30.8%
Under 9.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.8%
Under 3.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtyrauAtyrau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L10W00D10W00D00D12L10W11DH·FC 28/05A·ORD03/06H·FK 24/06A·FK 02/07H·ORD15/07A·FC 22/07H·ZHE30/07A·SHA05/08H·KAS12/08A·FK 19/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.540.620.531.06
vs Stronger (12)0.330.830.500.250.251.12
vs Similar (18)0.670.890.560.780.781.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W12L10W22D00D10W00D01LA·SHA15/07H·KAI22/07A·TOR27/07A·KAS30/07H·TOR03/08H·KAI06/08A·SEP10/08A·FK 13/08H·SEP17/08H·FK 20/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.371.200.470.670.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.120.411.380.620.890.22
vs Weaker (13)0.690.311.000.290.330.33
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtyrauAtyrau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W20W01L01L00D01L10W00D03LH·FC 28/05A·ORD03/06H·FK 24/06A·FK 02/07H·ORD15/07A·FC 22/07H·ZHE30/07A·SHA05/08H·KAS12/08A·FK 19/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.770.690.530.88
vs Stronger (12)0.580.750.750.500.500.88
vs Similar (18)0.670.830.780.780.560.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D21W10W02L20W11D01L01L10WA·SHA15/07H·KAI22/07A·TOR27/07A·KAS30/07H·TOR03/08H·KAI06/08A·SEP10/08A·FK 13/08H·SEP17/08H·FK 20/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.731.000.530.930.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.000.821.000.381.001.22
vs Weaker (13)0.920.621.000.710.830.50
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards89.5%--------
Under 11.5 corners87.3%--------
Under 10.5 corners79.6%--------
Under 3.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards76.8%--------
Over 1.571.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Atyrau's squad is €5m less valuable than Aktobe's (€4m vs €10m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Atyrau's attack is €3m less valuable than Aktobe's (€2m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Atyrau's midfield is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
Atyrau's defence is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€2m vs €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ATY wins
0
Draws
3
AKT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atyrau vs Aktobe · H/A from ATY
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/23AAktobe Vs ATY4-0
19/06/22HATY Vs Aktobe0-2
11/03/22AAktobe Vs ATY2-1

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23AFK Aksu Vs ATY4-1
12/08/23HATY Vs Kaspiy1-0
05/08/23AShakhter Karagandy Vs ATY2-2
30/07/23HATY Vs Zhetysu0-1
22/07/23AFC Astana Vs ATY0-0
15/07/23HATY Vs Ordabasy1-1
02/07/23AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs ATY1-0
24/06/23HATY Vs FK Tobol Kostanay3-0
03/06/23AOrdabasy Vs ATY2-1
28/05/23HATY Vs FC Astana0-0

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/23HAKT Vs FK Tobol Kostanay1-1
17/08/23HAKT Vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe0-1
13/08/23AFK Aksu Vs AKT1-1
10/08/23ASepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Vs AKT1-1
06/08/23HAKT Vs Kairat Almaty4-2
03/08/23HAKT Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-2
30/07/23AKaspiy Vs AKT2-2
27/07/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs AKT1-4
22/07/23HAKT Vs Kaisar1-0
15/07/23AShakhter Karagandy Vs AKT0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWL1.22
HomeDWDLW1.55
AwayLLDDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%41%21%
AVG goals2.542.452.62
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %54%55%54%
Over 3.5 %24%18%29%
Scored1.131.231.04
Conceded1.411.231.58
BTTS52%55%50%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLD1.92
HomeWLWLD2.32
AwayWWDDD1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%72%40%
AVG goals2.762.882.64
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.722.041.40
Conceded1.040.841.24
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners9.5010.678.33
Cards5.574.676.25

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy2658
69%
2.2
4821+27
2.7
73%
54%
31%
5.0
0%
4.4
60%
-
0%
10
3341.80.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2653
62%
2.0
3624+12
2.3
65%
42%
15%
8.5
50%
2.9
38%
-
0%
10
3251.40.9
-
3AktobeAktobe2650
50%
1.9
4423+21
2.6
73%
46%
31%
10.0
50%
5.9
88%
-
0%
10
5231.70.9
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2644
46%
1.7
4333+10
2.9
77%
69%
38%
-
0%
3.0
50%
-
0%
10
4241.71.3
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2639
42%
1.5
2523+2
1.8
50%
31%
8%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
4
2111.00.9
-
6KaisarKaisar2636
38%
1.4
3130+1
2.3
65%
42%
27%
-
0%
5.0
50%
-
0%
4
2121.21.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2634
35%
1.3
3032-2
2.4
73%
46%
15%
-
0%
3.2
50%
-
0%
9
3241.21.2
-
8AtyrauAtyrau2634
31%
1.3
2427-3
2.0
54%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.0
-
9MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2629
31%
1.1
2932-3
2.3
73%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2629
27%
1.1
3136-5
2.6
81%
54%
23%
11.0
100%
2.3
17%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11ZhetysuZhetysu2629
31%
1.1
2738-11
2.5
77%
50%
15%
6.0
0%
6.1
100%
-
0%
3
1021.01.5
-
12OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2627
27%
1.0
2637-11
2.4
62%
42%
19%
13.0
100%
2.5
25%
-
0%
5
2111.01.4
-
13KaspiyKaspiy2620
15%
0.8
2844-16
2.8
77%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.7
-
14FK AksuFK Aksu2618
19%
0.7
2345-22
2.6
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches