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Atyrau vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: 30/03/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 0-4
Atyrau
Atyrau
Vs
40%
33%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Atyrau win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L30W23L10W23L20W01L21W12LH·ZHE21/09H·AKT29/09H·TUR04/10A·KYZ20/10H·YEL26/10A·FC 30/10A·ZHE03/11H·KAI10/11H·YEL01/03A·OKZ08/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.901.760.651.151.23
vs Stronger (16)1.120.941.400.700.671.33
vs Similar (14)1.930.862.290.571.571.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L30W03L21W21W02L31W20W00D21WH·YEL31/08H·ZHE15/09A·FK 22/09A·ATY29/09H·KAI04/10A·FC 27/10A·SHA03/11H·TUR10/11A·ORD01/03H·TUR09/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.001.500.861.311.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.121.381.291.431.001.33
vs Weaker (14)1.710.571.710.291.710.86
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.3%
No
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
14.0%
1-0
13.3%
0-1
10.1%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.2%
Atyrau goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
01234
014%10%5.2%1.6%0.4%
113%15%6.0%1.8%0.4%
28.5%7.7%3.5%1.1%0.2%
33.3%3.0%1.4%0.4%0.1%
41.0%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atyrau goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Turan Turkistan
0.62
Atyrau is 0.92 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 1.65).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Turan Turkistan
0.96
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Atyrau is 0.65 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Turan Turkistan
2.23
Atyrau is 0.62 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.12).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AtyrauAtyrau

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AktobeAktobe

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AtyrauAtyrau

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.59.01.01.20.827.026.029.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (26)9.29.59.01.51.81.227.026.029.0
vs Weaker (24)---0.50.60.4---
% over line50%50%50%14%16%12%100%100%100%
% under line50%50%50%86%84%88%0%0%0%
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
FC Astana
3.9
Kairat Almaty
3.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtyrauAtyrau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W20W11D00D10W20W00D11D01LH·ZHE21/09H·AKT29/09H·TUR04/10A·KYZ20/10H·YEL26/10A·FC 30/10A·ZHE03/11H·KAI10/11H·YEL01/03A·OKZ08/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.300.820.180.540.46
vs Stronger (16)0.620.310.800.200.330.50
vs Similar (14)0.790.290.860.140.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L01L00D02L10W10W00D10WH·YEL31/08H·ZHE15/09A·FK 22/09A·ATY29/09H·KAI04/10A·FC 27/10A·SHA03/11H·TUR10/11A·ORD01/03H·TUR09/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.710.360.500.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.560.430.710.560.44
vs Weaker (14)0.710.211.000.000.430.43
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtyrauAtyrau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L10W12L10W13L00D01L10W11DH·ZHE21/09H·AKT29/09H·TUR04/10A·KYZ20/10H·YEL26/10A·FC 30/10A·ZHE03/11H·KAI10/11H·YEL01/03A·OKZ08/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.940.470.620.77
vs Stronger (16)0.500.620.600.500.330.83
vs Similar (14)1.140.571.430.430.860.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W02L20W21W00D21W10W00D11DH·YEL31/08H·ZHE15/09A·FK 22/09A·ATY29/09H·KAI04/10A·FC 27/10A·SHA03/11H·TUR10/11A·ORD01/03H·TUR09/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.790.500.810.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.810.860.710.440.89
vs Weaker (14)1.000.360.710.291.290.43
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Atyrau's squad is €5m less valuable than Aktobe's (€4m vs €10m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Atyrau's attack is €3m less valuable than Aktobe's (€2m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Atyrau's midfield is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Atyrau's defence is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€2m vs €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
0
ATY wins
3
Draws
4
AKT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atyrau vs Aktobe · H/A from ATY
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/24HATY Vs Aktobe1-2
11/08/24HATY Vs Aktobe1-1
07/04/24AAktobe Vs ATY1-1
27/08/23HATY Vs Aktobe0-0
16/04/23AAktobe Vs ATY4-0
19/06/22HATY Vs Aktobe0-2
11/03/22AAktobe Vs ATY2-1

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25AOkzhetpes Vs ATY2-1
01/03/25HATY Vs Yelimay Semey2-1
10/11/24HATY Vs Kairat Almaty0-1
03/11/24AZhetysu Vs ATY0-2
30/10/24AFC Astana Vs ATY3-2
26/10/24HATY Vs Yelimay Semey1-0
20/10/24AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ATY3-2
04/10/24HATY Vs Turan Turkistan3-0
29/09/24HATY Vs Aktobe1-2
21/09/24HATY Vs Zhenys2-1

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/25HAKT Vs Turan Turkistan2-1
01/03/25AOrdabasy Vs AKT0-0
10/11/24HAKT Vs Turan Turkistan2-0
03/11/24AShakhter Karagandy Vs AKT1-3
27/10/24AFC Astana Vs AKT2-0
04/10/24HAKT Vs Kairat Almaty2-1
29/09/24AAtyrau Vs AKT1-2
22/09/24AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs AKT3-0
15/09/24HAKT Vs Zhetysu3-0
31/08/24HAKT Vs Yelimay Semey1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.42
HomeLWWLW1.89
AwayLLLWL0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%52%17%
AVG goals2.061.962.17
Over 1.5 %58%56%61%
Over 2.5 %38%37%39%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.241.441.00
Conceded0.820.521.17
BTTS40%33%48%
Clean Sheet44%56%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.78
HomeLWWWW1.88
AwayLWLWD1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%54%42%
AVG goals2.442.502.38
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %20%17%23%
Scored1.481.581.38
Conceded0.960.921.00
BTTS58%50%65%
Clean Sheet34%42%27%
Corners9.259.509.00
Cards5.566.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2659
69%
2.3
5319+34
2.8
69%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.7
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2657
65%
2.2
6630+36
3.7
92%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3252.51.2
-
3FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2654
62%
2.1
4525+20
2.7
77%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.71.0
-
4Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey2648
54%
1.8
4731+16
3.0
88%
54%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4031.81.2
-
5AktobeAktobe2643
50%
1.7
3929+10
2.6
69%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.51.1
-
6ZhenysZhenys2636
31%
1.4
3730+7
2.6
73%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2021.41.2
-
7OrdabasyOrdabasy2635
35%
1.3
3728+9
2.5
58%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.41.1
-
8OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2632
35%
1.2
3545-10
3.1
73%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.31.7
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2627
23%
1.0
2532-7
2.2
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
10ZhetysuZhetysu2624
19%
0.9
2141-20
2.4
69%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1020.81.6
-
11UlytauUlytau2623
19%
0.9
2041-21
2.3
73%
38%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.6
-
12KaisarKaisar2622
12%
0.8
2442-18
2.5
73%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.6
-
13AtyrauAtyrau2619
15%
0.7
2245-23
2.6
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.81.7
-
14Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan2616
15%
0.6
2558-33
3.2
77%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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