Aktobe's recent form is a storyline worth noting, having just suffered a 1-3 defeat to Kyzyl-Zhar. In contrast, Atyrau is coming off a draw against Zhetysu. Given these recent trends, the model is surprisingly backing an away win for Aktobe. This outcome is the model's selection, with a 44% chance of occurring.
The most likely match result is indeed an away win for Aktobe. In terms of probabilities, Atyrau has a 30% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and Aktobe has a 44% chance of winning.
The model expects an average of 3 goals in this match, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12%.
Aktobe has a strong away form, scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding 2 when playing weaker opponents. In contrast, Atyrau's home form is less impressive, scoring 0.69 goals and conceding 1.69 when facing stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 81.7% and a notable edge of 15%. This suggests that the model is anticipating a high-scoring match.
The draw between Atyrau and Aktobe has extended Aktobe's run of consecutive draws to four, following their previous 1-1 stalemate against Atyrau. The actual result was a draw, contrary to the pre-match favourite's performance. The model's selection, an away win, was the pre-match favourite with a 44% probability, but unfortunately, the model's call was wrong. The model's selection of an away win was not the only one to miss the mark, as the Over 1.5 goals suggestion also fell short, despite an 81.7% probability of success. Meanwhile, the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals did hit, but the model's selection of an away win was incorrect, and the actual score was 1-1.
Atyrau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.70 | 0.67 | 1.73 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.69 | 2.62 | 0.67 | 2.50 | 0.71 | 2.71 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Aktobe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.21 | 1.36 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.79 | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Aktobe goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 12% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Atyrau
Aktobe
Atyrau| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (23) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Aktobe| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | - | - | - | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Atyrau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.08 | 1.54 | 0.00 | 1.17 | 0.14 | 1.86 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.18 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Aktobe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.14 | 0.21 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 1.33 | 0.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
Atyrau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 1.13 | 0.80 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.62 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Aktobe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.64 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.7% | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.37 | +14.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 30/03/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 29/09/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/08/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/04/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/08/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/04/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 19/06/22 | H | 0-2 |
Atyrau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/08/25 | A | 0-0 |
Aktobe| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 5-3 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ordabasy | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 3.3 | 100% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Astana | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Aktobe | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Kaspiy | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Irtysh | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 | Zhenys | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Yelimay Semey | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 12 | Ulytau | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Kaisar | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | Atyrau | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.7 | 83% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 15 | Altay (Kazakhstan) | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | - |