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Atyrau vs FK Aksu Result & Analysis

Date: 23/04/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 2-1
Atyrau
Atyrau
Vs
45%
26%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Atyrau win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L15L22D12L22D21W10W04L01L04LA·KYZ15/10A·FC 23/10H·SHA30/10A·FK 06/11A·KAI05/03H·KAI10/03A·MAQ15/03H·OKZ02/04A·KYZ08/04A·AKT16/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.631.291.641.001.62
vs Stronger (11)1.271.821.201.401.332.17
vs Similar (19)1.051.531.331.780.801.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D02L21W13L13L22D21W03L02LA·ARY14/10H·ORD24/10A·KAI30/10H·ATY06/11A·FK 04/03H·KAI09/03A·KAI14/03H·MAQ01/04A·OKZ08/04H·KYZ16/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.701.601.200.872.20
vs Stronger (11)0.822.271.601.800.172.67
vs Similar (19)1.471.371.600.901.331.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
1-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
Atyrau goals ↓
FK Aksu goals →
01234
06.3%5.6%4.3%1.9%0.6%
17.5%12%7.2%3.1%1.0%
27.2%9.3%6.0%2.6%0.8%
34.0%5.2%3.3%1.4%0.5%
41.7%2.1%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atyrau goals (down), columns = FK Aksu goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
Atyrau is 0.62 points better than FK Aksu in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 0.69).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
Atyrau is 0.04 goals better than FK Aksu in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 0.88).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
Atyrau is 0.69 goals better than FK Aksu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 1.73).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AtyrauAtyrau

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FK AksuFK Aksu

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AtyrauAtyrau

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (32)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (12)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (32)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (12)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
10.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
8.7
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Zhetysu
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
Aktobe
6.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
FC Astana
4.5
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.2%
Under 9.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.0%
Under 3.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtyrauAtyrau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L12L01L12L21W10W01L00D01LA·KYZ15/10A·FC 23/10H·SHA30/10A·FK 06/11A·KAI05/03H·KAI10/03A·MAQ15/03H·OKZ02/04A·KYZ08/04A·AKT16/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.500.640.560.88
vs Stronger (11)0.550.820.200.400.831.17
vs Similar (19)0.530.740.670.780.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D22D00D10W01L01L22D01L01L00DA·ARY14/10H·ORD24/10A·KAI30/10H·ATY06/11A·FK 04/03H·KAI09/03A·KAI14/03H·MAQ01/04A·OKZ08/04H·KYZ16/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.930.730.600.401.27
vs Stronger (11)0.451.091.001.000.001.17
vs Similar (19)0.630.840.600.400.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtyrauAtyrau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L10W11D10W00D00D03L01L03LA·KYZ15/10A·FC 23/10H·SHA30/10A·FK 06/11A·KAI05/03H·KAI10/03A·MAQ15/03H·OKZ02/04A·KYZ08/04A·AKT16/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.791.000.440.75
vs Stronger (11)0.731.001.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (19)0.530.790.671.000.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L11D12L12L00D20W02L02LA·ARY14/10H·ORD24/10A·KAI30/10H·ATY06/11A·FK 04/03H·KAI09/03A·KAI14/03H·MAQ01/04A·OKZ08/04H·KYZ16/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.870.600.470.93
vs Stronger (11)0.361.180.600.800.171.50
vs Similar (19)0.840.531.000.500.670.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards89.0%--------
Under 11.5 corners85.9%--------
Over 1.580.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners77.6%--------
Over 3.5 cards76.0%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ATY wins
1
Draws
1
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atyrau vs FK Aksu · H/A from ATY
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22AFK Aksu Vs ATY2-1
05/03/22HATY Vs FK Aksu0-0

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/23AAktobe Vs ATY4-0
08/04/23AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ATY1-0
02/04/23HATY Vs Okzhetpes0-4
15/03/23AMaqtaaral Vs ATY0-1
10/03/23HATY Vs Kaisar2-1
05/03/23AKairat Almaty Vs ATY2-2
06/11/22AFK Aksu Vs ATY2-1
30/10/22HATY Vs Shakhter Karagandy2-2
23/10/22AFC Astana Vs ATY5-1
15/10/22AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ATY3-1

FK AksuFK Aksu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/23HFA Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-2
08/04/23AOkzhetpes Vs FA3-0
01/04/23HFA Vs Maqtaaral2-1
14/03/23AKaisar Vs FA2-2
09/03/23HFA Vs Kairat Almaty1-3
04/03/23AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs FA3-1
06/11/22HFA Vs Atyrau2-1
30/10/22AKairat Almaty Vs FA2-0
24/10/22HFA Vs Ordabasy2-2
14/10/22AArys Vs FA0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.12
HomeLLDWL1.33
AwayLDWLL0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%24%
AVG goals2.692.732.65
Over 1.5 %75%80%71%
Over 2.5 %56%60%53%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored1.091.201.00
Conceded1.591.531.65
BTTS53%60%47%
Clean Sheet25%13%35%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.25
HomeDWLWL1.81
AwayWLLDL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%56%19%
AVG goals2.782.692.88
Over 1.5 %75%81%69%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %25%19%31%
Scored1.191.560.81
Conceded1.591.122.06
BTTS47%56%38%
Clean Sheet28%38%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy2658
69%
2.2
4821+27
2.7
73%
54%
31%
5.0
0%
4.4
60%
-
0%
10
3341.80.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2653
62%
2.0
3624+12
2.3
65%
42%
15%
8.5
50%
2.9
38%
-
0%
10
3251.40.9
-
3AktobeAktobe2650
50%
1.9
4423+21
2.6
73%
46%
31%
10.0
50%
5.9
88%
-
0%
10
5231.70.9
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2644
46%
1.7
4333+10
2.9
77%
69%
38%
-
0%
3.0
50%
-
0%
10
4241.71.3
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2639
42%
1.5
2523+2
1.8
50%
31%
8%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
4
2111.00.9
-
6KaisarKaisar2636
38%
1.4
3130+1
2.3
65%
42%
27%
-
0%
5.0
50%
-
0%
4
2121.21.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2634
35%
1.3
3032-2
2.4
73%
46%
15%
-
0%
3.2
50%
-
0%
9
3241.21.2
-
8AtyrauAtyrau2634
31%
1.3
2427-3
2.0
54%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.0
-
9MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2629
31%
1.1
2932-3
2.3
73%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2629
27%
1.1
3136-5
2.6
81%
54%
23%
11.0
100%
2.3
17%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11ZhetysuZhetysu2629
31%
1.1
2738-11
2.5
77%
50%
15%
6.0
0%
6.1
100%
-
0%
3
1021.01.5
-
12OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2627
27%
1.0
2637-11
2.4
62%
42%
19%
13.0
100%
2.5
25%
-
0%
5
2111.01.4
-
13KaspiyKaspiy2620
15%
0.8
2844-16
2.8
77%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.7
-
14FK AksuFK Aksu2618
19%
0.7
2345-22
2.6
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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