This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.69
1.12
1.14
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.69
1.31
1.67
1.33
1.71
1.29
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
1.00
1.70
1.00
0.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
Under 2.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
9.5%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.7%
Atyrau goals ↓
Kairat Almaty goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
8.4%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.5%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.1%
8.4%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atyrau goals (down), columns = Kairat Almaty goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.25
Yelimay Semey
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.25
Taraz
2.25
SD Family
2.25
Aktobe
2.00
Ordabasy
2.00
Jas Qyran
2.00
Atyrau
1.80
Irtysh
1.75
AKAS
1.67
Kairat Almaty
1.50
FC Astana
1.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Ulytau
1.50
FK Aksu
1.50
Zhetisay
1.33
Okzhetpes
0.67
Kaspiy
0.50
Ekibastuz
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Kyran
0.50
Khan Tengri
0.33
Turan Turkistan
0.33
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Shakhter Karagandy
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
Atyrau is 0.30 points better than Kairat Almaty in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.50).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atyrau
2.80
FK Aksu
2.50
Kairat Almaty
2.00
Zhetisay
1.67
Jas Qyran
1.67
Taraz
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kyran
1.50
AKAS
1.33
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25
Yelimay Semey
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Aktobe
1.20
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Irtysh
0.75
FC Astana
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Ulytau
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Turan Turkistan
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
Atyrau is 0.80 goals better than Kairat Almaty in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 2.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.00
FC Astana
0.50
Irtysh
0.50
Akademiya Ontustik
0.50
Aktobe
0.60
Taraz
0.75
Atyrau
0.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Ulytau
1.00
Yelimay Semey
1.00
AKAS
1.00
Zhetisay
1.00
Akzhayik
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.33
Turan Turkistan
1.33
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Maqtaaral
1.50
Khan Tengri
1.67
SD Family
1.75
Kaspiy
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Yassy Turkistan
2.00
FK Aksu
2.50
Kaisar
3.00
Kyran
3.00
Atyrau is 0.70 goals better than Kairat Almaty in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.50).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atyrau or Drawâ Hit
68.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Atyrau + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atyrau or Kairat Almatyâ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Atyrau + Kairat Almaty
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kairat Almatyâ Miss
61.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Draw + Kairat Almaty
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atyrau over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atyrau, so a minus line means Atyrau give that many goals of a start and Kairat Almaty receive them. At -1, Atyrau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atyrau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atyrau)Actual: Draw
Atyrau -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.7%
Kairat Almaty +2
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atyrau)Actual: Atyrau
Atyrau -1
18.1%
Draw -1
20.5%
Kairat Almaty +1
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atyrau)Actual: Atyrau
Atyrau +1
68.0%
Draw +1
18.2%
Kairat Almaty -1
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atyrau)Actual: Atyrau
Atyrau +2
86.2%
Draw +2
9.3%
Kairat Almaty -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atyrau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.27
0.60
0.07
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
0.31
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.24
0.78
0.11
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.81
0.44
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.59
0.90
0.50
0.14
0.71
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atyrau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.89
0.33
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.88
0.69
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.85
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.41
0.80
0.50
0.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
LuÃs Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
LuÃs Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
LuÃs Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
LuÃs Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Atyrau's squad is €5m less valuable than Kairat Almaty's (€4m vs €10m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Atyrau's attack is €2m less valuable than Kairat Almaty's (€2m vs €4m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Atyrau's midfield is €1m less valuable than Kairat Almaty's (€1m vs €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Atyrau's defence is €2m less valuable than Kairat Almaty's (€2m vs €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →