Atyrau and Zhetysu are set to face off in the Kazakhstan Premier League on August 1. The recent form of these teams has been quite even, with Atyrau coming off a draw against Aktobe and Zhetysu following a defeat to Ordabasy. However, the model's selection is the home win, with a 40% probability, while the draw and away win probabilities stand at 29% and 31% respectively.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 13.7% probability. Atyrau's home form has seen them score an average of one goal and concede 1.5 goals per match against similar opponents, while Zhetysu has averaged one goal scored and 1.38 conceded in away matches against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with an 8% edge, occurring with a 74.8% probability, and Under 3.5, occurring with a 73.3% probability. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
A draw at the end of the match between Atyrau and Zhetysu, a result that extends Atyrau's run of consecutive draws to four. The final score was 1-1, a result that matches the most likely scenario predicted by the model, albeit with a lower probability of 13.7%. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 40%.
The model's call on the most likely total goals was also off the mark, expecting 2 goals, but the actual total was 2. The model's suggested picks were more accurate, with 'Over 1.5' hitting at 74.8% and 'Under 3.5' also hitting at 73.3%.
Atyrau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.73 | 0.64 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.67 | 2.40 | 0.57 | 2.14 | 0.75 | 2.62 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.71 | 1.43 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Zhetysu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.47 | 0.71 | 1.21 | 0.88 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.75 | 2.06 | 1.00 | 1.86 | 0.56 | 2.22 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Zhetysu goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 14% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Atyrau
Zhetysu
Atyrau| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Zhetysu| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (24) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Atyrau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.10 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.19 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.07 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Zhetysu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.23 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.31 | 1.12 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.11 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Atyrau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.64 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Zhetysu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.44 | 0.94 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.89 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | +8.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.3% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.17 | -3.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 17/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/11/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 30/03/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 30/07/23 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/05/23 | A | 0-3 |
Atyrau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/08/25 | A | 0-0 |
Zhetysu| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 05/10/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 16/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/08/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 17/08/25 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ordabasy | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | FC Astana | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Aktobe | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Okzhetpes | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Kaspiy | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Yelimay Semey | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Irtysh | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Zhenys | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Kaisar | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Atyrau | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 14 | Ulytau | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | - |
| 16 | Altay (Kazakhstan) | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.4 | - |