AVS are set to defend a tight, low-scoring game against Feirense, with the model favouring a home win. The predicted outcome is a 43% chance for AVS, 31% for a draw, and 26% for Feirense. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
AVS, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, average 0.78 goals scored and concede 1.0 per match. Feirense, on the road, average 1.4 goals scored and concede 1.4, indicating a slightly higher offensive output but also a higher concession rate. The recent form shows AVS coming off a draw, while Feirense has endured two straight defeats.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1% with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Under 5.5 at 97.4% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1% with a 5% edge.
Results analysis
AVS, riding a win that extended their recent run, edged Feirense 2-0 to deliver the predicted home triumph. The model’s favourite, a home win at 43 percent probability, proved correct, matching the final score and outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 (99.8 percent) and Under 6.5 (99.2 percent) both came in, as did the away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 percent) and away under 3.5 goals (98.5 percent). Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1 percent), away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 percent), Under 5.5 (97.4 percent), and home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0 percent) all performed as predicted. The model’s forecast was spot on.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AVS win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.25
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.40
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Dafabet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.06
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.21
Dafabet
3.20
BetVictor
3.10
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Feirense win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.17
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
4.40
Dafabet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AVS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.63
0.86
1.21
0.88
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.15
1.00
1.60
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.24
0.78
1.00
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.17
0.62
0.75
1.36
1.64
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
0.60
1.20
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.95
0.64
0.55
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.2%
@ 1.41+0.3%
Under 1.5
33.8%
@ 2.72-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.1%
@ 2.29-2.5%
Under 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.57+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
@ 4.31-3.2%
Under 3.5
81.6%
@ 1.18+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.53
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
@ 1.96-2.0%
No
54.8%
@ 1.75+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
2.10
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
Betfair
1.95
No
Betfair
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.65+6.7%
1-0
12.7%@ 5.97+5.4%
0-0
12.2%@ 7.08+6.1%
2-0 ✓
8.9%@ 9.24+4.2%
0-1
8.9%@ 7.15+2.8%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.82+3.4%
1-2
6.1%@ 10.59+2.0%
0-2
4.8%@ 13.58+1.6%
AVS goals ↓
Feirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.9%
8.4%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.6%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AVS goals (down), columns = Feirense goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
AVS is 0.15 points better than Feirense in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
AVS is 0.21 goals better than Feirense in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
AVS is 0.13 goals better than Feirense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AVS
For 3.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Feirense
For 4.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.2 · Against 11.5 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AVS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.7
10.7
4.8
5.7
3.9
25.3
27.0
23.6
vs Stronger (19)
9.7
7.9
10.9
3.8
4.1
3.6
22.5
22.4
22.5
vs Similar (31)
9.7
9.1
10.4
5.3
6.5
4.1
27.1
29.1
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
36%
61%
66%
79%
54%
73%
82%
65%
% under line
51%
64%
39%
34%
21%
46%
27%
18%
35%
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
10.3
7.0
5.8
6.1
5.4
21.5
21.9
21.0
vs Stronger (11)
11.7
12.5
10.0
4.6
4.4
5.0
19.2
17.0
26.0
vs Similar (38)
7.9
9.2
6.0
6.2
6.8
5.6
22.4
25.5
20.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
4.0
-
4.0
-
-
-
% over line
30%
33%
25%
76%
80%
72%
62%
57%
67%
% under line
70%
67%
75%
24%
20%
28%
38%
43%
33%
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.2%
@ 1.79-9.7%
Under 9.5
57.8%
@ 1.93+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
83.4%
Under 3.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.0%
Under 21.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AVS or Draw✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.31
Edge
+3.2%
43%
31%
26%
covers AVS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
AVS or Feirense✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.32
Edge
-1.5%
43%
31%
26%
covers AVS + Feirense
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw or Feirense✗ Miss
57.0%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.59
Edge
-1.7%
43%
31%
26%
covers Draw + Feirense
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AVS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.2%
@ 1.31+1.1%
Under
27.8%
@ 3.21-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
888Sport
3.80
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
AVS over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.6%
@ 2.51-0.4%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.47+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
BetVictor
2.55
Under
888Sport
1.67
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
AVS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 5.89-2.0%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.10+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
888Sport
1.18
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
AVS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 12.75-3.4%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
1xBet
11.00
888Sport
11.00
Betano
10.50
Under
1xBet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Feirense over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.8%
@ 1.47-2.2%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.51+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.67
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.71
Betfair
2.63
Marathonbet
2.61
BetVictor
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Feirense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.1%
@ 3.33-3.9%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.30+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Feirense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 9.46-3.1%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.90
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.03
Feirense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 20.50-3.2%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AVS, so a minus line means AVS give that many goals of a start and Feirense receive them. At -1, AVS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AVS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AVS)Actual: Draw
AVS -2
7.1%
@ 9.78-2.0%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 5.93-1.9%
Feirense +2
79.8%
@ 1.17+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (AVS)Actual: AVS
AVS -1
20.2%
@ 4.48+0.5%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.67-1.2%
Feirense +1
57.0%
@ 1.56+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Away
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Handicap +1 (AVS)Actual: AVS
AVS +1
74.1%
@ 1.33+6.6%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 4.54-3.4%
Feirense -1
9.5%
@ 7.08-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Handicap +2 (AVS)Actual: AVS
AVS +2
90.5%
@ 1.08+5.6%
Draw +2
7.0%
@ 9.25-2.9%
Feirense -2
2.5%
@ 17.50-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.50
Away
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AVS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.77
0.29
0.50
0.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.24
0.59
0.22
0.44
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.38
0.19
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.40
0.40
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.38
0.36
0.09
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
64.6%
@ 1.48+2.2%
Under 0.5
35.4%
@ 2.46-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.55
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.3%
@ 3.31-0.8%
Under 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.29+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
Under
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.0%
@ 8.95-2.5%
Under 2.5
92.0%
@ 1.05+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
BetVictor
9.00
Under
William Hil
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AVS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 2.15+2.1%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.63-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
AVS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 7.20-2.0%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
AVS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 20.83-2.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Feirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.2%
@ 2.49-4.9%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.47+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Feirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 9.11-2.4%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Feirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 37.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AVS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.57
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.60
1.00
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
0.56
0.56
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.25
0.56
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.80
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.57
0.27
0.45
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.31+6.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 3.20-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.46-0.2%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.49+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.45
William Hil
2.45
Under
Betano
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 5.77-1.4%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.10+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.85
William Hil
5.80
Superbet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AVS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.83+5.9%
Under
43.6%
@ 1.87-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
AVS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.4%
@ 5.20+2.5%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.13-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Superbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
AVS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 13.83-3.9%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Feirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 2.07-1.5%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.68+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Feirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 6.66-3.6%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Feirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 20.33-2.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.03
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
92.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.05
William Hil
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.2%
1.10
888Sport
1.18
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
81.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.8%
1.17
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
1.32
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-
+10.1%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.31
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.1%
1.31
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
1.33
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.29
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.2%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+1.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AVS · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Lima19%
Nenê18%
Tomané13%
Sidi Bane11%
Diego Duarte11%
Guilherme Neiva8%
Rafael Barbosa8%
Diogo Spencer8%
Óscar Perea8%
Aderllan Santos6%
Roni6%
Ángel Algobia5%
Tunde Akinsola3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaume Grau0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Leonardo Rivas0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Adriel0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Assunção40%
Rúben Semedo33%
Gustavo Mendonca27%
Jaume Grau26%
Roni24%
Simão23%
Leonardo Rivas22%
Cristian Castro22%
Paulo Vitor22%
Mateus Pivô21%
Andre Green20%
Ponck19%
Pedro Lima19%
Tiago Galletto18%
Tomané17%
Rafael Barbosa15%
Diogo Spencer15%
Adriel12%
Aderllan Santos12%
Sidi Bane11%
Nenê9%
Guilherme Neiva8%
Kiki Afonso7%
Tunde Akinsola6%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
João Gonçalves0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Diego Duarte0%
Óscar Perea0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafael Barbosa15%
Diogo Spencer15%
Guilherme Neiva12%
Tunde Akinsola11%
Pedro Lima7%
Adriel6%
Nenê5%
Leonardo Rivas4%
Diego Duarte4%
Tomané3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaume Grau0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Roni0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Óscar Perea0%
Sidi Bane0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nenê14%
Tunde Akinsola11%
Rafael Barbosa8%
Óscar Perea8%
Aderllan Santos6%
Roni6%
Jaume Grau5%
Guilherme Neiva4%
Pedro Lima4%
Tomané3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Leonardo Rivas0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Adriel0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Diego Duarte0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Diogo Spencer0%
Sidi Bane0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
Feirense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonny Arriba33%
João Lima25%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves17%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luiz Gustavo0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Diego Altube0%
Luís Santos0%
João Oliveira0%
Antonio Leal0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Desmond Nketia0%
André Lopes0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Gastón Novero0%
Pedrinho0%
Samad Popoola0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tiago Ribeiro60%
Samad Popoola60%
Zé Ricardo50%
André Lopes50%
João Lima50%
Emanuel Fernandes43%
João Oliveira33%
Jonny Arriba33%
Bruno Silva25%
Gastón Novero25%
Luiz Gustavo20%
Diego Altube20%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves17%
Antonio Leal14%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Luís Santos0%
Desmond Nketia0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Pedrinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Oliveira33%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luiz Gustavo0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Diego Altube0%
Luís Santos0%
Antonio Leal0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Desmond Nketia0%
André Lopes0%
Jonny Arriba0%
João Lima0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Gastón Novero0%
Pedrinho0%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves0%
Samad Popoola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luiz Gustavo20%
Tiago Ribeiro20%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Bruno Silva0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Diego Altube0%
Luís Santos0%
João Oliveira0%
Antonio Leal0%
Desmond Nketia0%
André Lopes0%
Jonny Arriba0%
João Lima0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Gastón Novero0%
Pedrinho0%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves0%
Samad Popoola0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
AVS's squad is €3m more valuable than Feirense's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
AVS's attack is €2m more valuable than Feirense's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
AVS and Feirense have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
AVS and Feirense have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Chaves