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Ayia Napa vs ASIL Lysi Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Vs
43%
29%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ASIL Lysi
ASIL Lysi
Cyprus: 2. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ayia Napa are tipped to win, the model’s favourite result, with a 43% chance of a home victory, a 29% draw probability and 28% for an away win. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, centring on a 2-goal total that the model deems 27% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% chance. Ayia Napa have scored 1.62 goals and conceded 1.19 at home against stronger opposition, while ASIL Lysi, playing away against weaker opponents, have netted 2.0 goals and conceded none. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 75.3% and Over 1.5 at 73.0%. The home side’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while the away side is coming off a defeat. The model’s selection for the match outcome remains a home win.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Ayia Napa failed to convert the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call, which had a 43% chance, proving wrong. The match finished 1-2 in favour of ASIL Lysi, ending the home side’s two-game winning run and the away side’s run after a defeat. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.3% probability, and the Over 1.5 goal pick also hit at 73.0%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, and the 2-goal total predicted was missed. Overall, the model’s predictions were mixed, with only the goal-related picks succeeding.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayia Napa win✗ Miss
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi win✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L10W10W63W21W30W33D11D22D02LA·ENO10/12H·XYL16/12A·DIG20/12H·ERM06/01A·AKR13/01A·ENO19/01H·KRA27/01A·OLY07/02H·PEY10/02A·OMO17/02
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.301.621.190.641.43
vs Stronger (30)1.171.301.621.190.641.43
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W20W20W11D01L00D00D21W13LA·XYL09/12H·DIG17/12A·ERM20/12H·AKR06/01A·KRA13/01A·OLY21/01H·OMO27/01A·OMO04/02H·KRA10/02A·PEY17/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.950.951.000.900.901.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.941.061.111.000.781.11
vs Weaker (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.7%
1-2 ✓
7.0%
0-2
5.0%
Ayia Napa goals ↓
ASIL Lysi goals →
01234
09.3%7.7%5.0%1.8%0.5%
110%14%7.0%2.6%0.7%
28.0%8.9%4.9%1.8%0.5%
33.7%4.2%2.3%0.9%0.2%
41.3%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayia Napa goals (down), columns = ASIL Lysi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Omonia Aradippou
2.10
Omonia 29is Maiou
2.00
Olympiakos
1.86
Enosis
1.86
Digenis Morphou
1.76
PAEEK
1.59
Krasava Ypsonas
1.52
ASIL Lysi
1.48
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.24
Akritas
1.21
MEAP Nisou
1.14
Peyia
1.10
Ayia Napa
1.03
ENAD
0.90
Ermis
0.69
Xylotympou
0.69
Ayia Napa is 0.45 points worse than ASIL Lysi in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
PAEEK
1.62
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.59
Omonia Aradippou
1.59
Enosis
1.52
Olympiakos
1.48
Digenis Morphou
1.41
Krasava Ypsonas
1.34
ASIL Lysi
1.24
Ayia Napa
1.21
Akritas
1.21
Peyia
1.14
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.10
ENAD
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Ermis
0.97
Xylotympou
0.97
Ayia Napa is 0.03 goals worse than ASIL Lysi in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Aradippou
0.66
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.72
Olympiakos
0.72
Digenis Morphou
1.00
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.10
Enosis
1.14
Akritas
1.14
PAEEK
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.24
MEAP Nisou
1.31
ENAD
1.41
Peyia
1.52
Ayia Napa
1.79
Xylotympou
1.90
Ermis
2.41
Ayia Napa is 0.55 goals worse than ASIL Lysi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.24).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W11D10W12L11D10W02LA·ENO10/12H·XYL16/12A·DIG20/12H·ERM06/01A·AKR13/01A·ENO19/01H·KRA27/01A·OLY07/02H·PEY10/02A·OMO17/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.750.250.290.79
vs Stronger (30)0.530.500.750.250.290.79
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W10W10W00D00D00D00D00D10WA·XYL09/12H·DIG17/12A·ERM20/12H·AKR06/01A·KRA13/01A·OLY21/01H·OMO27/01A·OMO04/02H·KRA10/02A·PEY17/02
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.250.400.300.200.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.330.280.440.330.220.22
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W10W43W10W20W21W00D12L00DA·ENO10/12H·XYL16/12A·DIG20/12H·ERM06/01A·AKR13/01A·ENO19/01H·KRA27/01A·OLY07/02H·PEY10/02A·OMO17/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.880.940.360.64
vs Stronger (30)0.630.800.880.940.360.64
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W10W11D01L00D00D21W03LA·XYL09/12H·DIG17/12A·ERM20/12H·AKR06/01A·KRA13/01A·OLY21/01H·OMO27/01A·OMO04/02H·KRA10/02A·PEY17/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.700.600.600.700.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.610.780.670.670.560.89
vs Weaker (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KY (8)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OA (4)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
PAE (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
AN wins
1
Draws
0
AL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayia Napa vs ASIL Lysi · H/A from AN
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/23AASIL Lysi Vs AN0-0

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24AOmonia Aradippou Vs AN2-0
10/02/24HAN Vs Peyia2-2
07/02/24AOlympiakos Vs AN1-1
27/01/24HAN Vs Krasava Ypsonas3-3
19/01/24AEnosis Vs AN0-3
13/01/24AAkritas Vs AN1-2
06/01/24HAN Vs Ermis6-3
20/12/23ADigenis Morphou Vs AN0-1
16/12/23HAN Vs Xylotympou1-0
10/12/23AEnosis Vs AN2-1

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24APeyia Vs AL3-1
10/02/24HAL Vs Krasava Ypsonas2-1
04/02/24AOmonia 29is Maiou Vs AL0-0
27/01/24HAL Vs Omonia Aradippou0-0
21/01/24AOlympiakos Vs AL1-0
13/01/24AKrasava Ypsonas Vs AL1-1
06/01/24HAL Vs Akritas2-0
20/12/23AErmis Vs AL0-2
17/12/23HAL Vs Digenis Morphou2-1
09/12/23AXylotympou Vs AL0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDL1.30
HomeWWWDD1.61
AwayWWWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%43%29%
AVG goals2.472.702.25
Over 1.5 %72%70%75%
Over 2.5 %40%39%42%
Over 3.5 %15%22%8%
Scored1.191.520.88
Conceded1.281.171.38
BTTS36%48%25%
Clean Sheet34%39%29%
Corners---
Cards---
ASIL Lysi
ASIL Lysi
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.40
HomeLWWDW1.40
AwayWDLDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%30%40%
AVG goals1.901.901.90
Over 1.5 %70%70%70%
Over 2.5 %30%40%20%
Over 3.5 %10%10%10%
Scored0.951.000.90
Conceded0.950.901.00
BTTS45%60%30%
Clean Sheet40%40%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Omonia AradippouOmonia Aradippou2961
62%
2.1
4619+27
2.2
66%
41%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.60.7
-
2Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou2958
59%
2.0
4621+25
2.3
76%
38%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0021.60.7
-
3OlympiakosOlympiakos2954
55%
1.9
4321+22
2.2
66%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1021.50.7
-
4EnosisEnosis2954
55%
1.9
4433+11
2.7
79%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.1
-
5Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou2951
52%
1.8
4129+12
2.4
66%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
6PAEEKPAEEK2946
45%
1.6
4734+13
2.8
83%
48%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
7Krasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas2944
41%
1.5
3936+3
2.6
76%
41%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.31.2
-
8ASIL LysiASIL Lysi2943
41%
1.5
3636+0
2.5
79%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
9Ahironas / OnisilosAhironas / Onisilos2936
28%
1.2
3232+0
2.2
69%
48%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
10AkritasAkritas2935
34%
1.2
3533+2
2.3
76%
48%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.1
-
11MEAP NisouMEAP Nisou2933
28%
1.1
2938-9
2.3
66%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
12PeyiaPeyia2932
31%
1.1
3344-11
2.7
79%
45%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
13Ayia NapaAyia Napa2930
28%
1.0
3552-17
3.0
79%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
14ENADENAD2926
24%
0.9
3241-9
2.5
69%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
15XylotympouXylotympou2920
14%
0.7
2855-27
2.9
72%
48%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
16ErmisErmis2920
21%
0.7
2870-42
3.4
86%
69%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
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Cyprus: 2. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →

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