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Ayia Napa vs ASIL Lysi Result & Analysis

Date: 21/03/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 5-5
Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Vs
36%
33%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ASIL Lysi
ASIL Lysi
Cyprus: 2. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ayia Napa’s defensive record at home is a key talking point: they concede almost a goal a game, 0.92, against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.69. ASIL Lysi, on the road, has a more potent attack, averaging a goal per match, but their defence is porous, conceding 1.67 against weaker teams. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.0 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.8% chance. The favourite result is a home win, with probabilities of 36% for Ayia Napa, 33% for a draw, and 31% for ASIL Lysi. The single selection offered is Under 3.5, with an 84.9% probability. Recent form hints at a cautious start: Ayia Napa are on a two-game winning streak, while ASIL Lysi are coming off a loss. The match is poised to be a defensive battle, with the home side slightly favoured.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Ay Napa, did not deliver, as the match finished a 5-5 draw, extending their two-game winning run but falling short of the predicted outcome. The model had chosen a home win with a 36% probability, but this call was wrong. The suggested pick was Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.9% probability; that selection missed, as the total goals reached ten. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 had a 14.8% chance, but the final score of 5-5 was far beyond the model’s expectations. The game’s high-scoring nature surprised all, overturning the pre-match narrative.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayia Napa win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D20W02L32W02L00D12L02L02L03LA·OMO17/01A·MEA24/01H·KAR31/01A·ASI08/02H·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.230.711.001.501.44
vs Stronger (26)1.121.270.690.921.541.62
vs Similar (4)1.251.001.002.001.330.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L20W13L23L05L00D12L13L01L01LA·PAE17/01H·DOX24/01A·OMO31/01H·AYI08/02A·KAR13/02A·MEA21/02H·NEA28/02H·PAE08/03A·DOX13/03H·OMO18/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.371.131.000.731.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.811.241.000.560.671.75
vs Weaker (9)1.221.671.331.671.001.67
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.5%
Under 2.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.3%
1-0
12.6%
0-1
11.2%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
6.1%
Ayia Napa goals ↓
ASIL Lysi goals →
01234
014%11%6.1%2.0%0.5%
113%15%6.5%2.1%0.5%
27.5%7.2%3.5%1.1%0.3%
32.7%2.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
40.7%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayia Napa goals (down), columns = ASIL Lysi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nea Salamis
2.62
Karmiotissa
1.93
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.83
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
APEA
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
Ethnikos Latsion
1.03
MEAP Nisou
1.00
AE Zakakiou
0.90
Ahironas / Onisilos
0.28
Ayia Napa is 0.34 points better than ASIL Lysi in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
2.07
Nea Salamis
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.86
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
AE Zakakiou
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Ethnikos Latsion
0.97
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Ahironas / Onisilos
0.62
Ayia Napa is 0.34 goals better than ASIL Lysi in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.10).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nea Salamis
0.52
Karmiotissa
0.90
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.14
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
Digenis Morphou
1.31
APEA
1.31
Ayia Napa
1.48
Ethnikos Latsion
1.59
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
AE Zakakiou
1.79
Ahironas / Onisilos
2.34
Ayia Napa is 0.24 goals better than ASIL Lysi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.72).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D12L01L00D00D02L02L02LA·OMO17/01A·MEA24/01H·KAR31/01A·ASI08/02H·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.140.570.621.00
vs Stronger (26)0.380.850.150.620.621.08
vs Similar (4)0.500.500.000.000.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W21W01L00D12L03L00D00DA·PAE17/01H·DOX24/01A·OMO31/01H·AYI08/02A·KAR13/02A·MEA21/02H·NEA28/02H·PAE08/03A·DOX13/03H·OMO18/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.400.530.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.430.380.330.220.500.50
vs Weaker (9)0.670.890.501.001.000.67
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W02L20W01L00D12L00D00D01LA·OMO17/01A·MEA24/01H·KAR31/01A·ASI08/02H·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.570.430.880.44
vs Stronger (26)0.730.420.540.310.920.54
vs Similar (4)0.750.501.002.000.670.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W03L02L04L00D00D10W01L01LA·PAE17/01H·DOX24/01A·OMO31/01H·AYI08/02A·KAR13/02A·MEA21/02H·NEA28/02H·PAE08/03A·DOX13/03H·OMO18/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.830.730.470.131.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.380.860.670.330.171.25
vs Weaker (9)0.560.780.830.670.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
DOX (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
DOX (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
AN wins
3
Draws
2
AL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayia Napa vs ASIL Lysi · H/A from AN
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26AASIL Lysi Vs AN2-3
10/01/26AASIL Lysi Vs AN1-1
11/01/25HAN Vs ASIL Lysi1-1
20/04/24AASIL Lysi Vs AN3-2
24/02/24HAN Vs ASIL Lysi1-2
12/11/23AASIL Lysi Vs AN0-0

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/26AKarmiotissa Vs AN3-0
14/03/26HAN Vs MEAP Nisou0-2
06/03/26HAN Vs Omonia 29is Maiou0-2
28/02/26HAN Vs Doxa1-2
21/02/26APAEEK Vs AN0-0
14/02/26HAN Vs Nea Salamis0-2
08/02/26AASIL Lysi Vs AN2-3
31/01/26HAN Vs Karmiotissa0-2
24/01/26AMEAP Nisou Vs AN0-2
17/01/26AOmonia 29is Maiou Vs AN2-2

ASIL LysiASIL Lysi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/26HAL Vs Omonia 29is Maiou0-1
13/03/26ADoxa Vs AL1-0
08/03/26HAL Vs PAEEK1-3
28/02/26HAL Vs Nea Salamis1-2
21/02/26AMEAP Nisou Vs AL0-0
13/02/26AKarmiotissa Vs AL5-0
08/02/26HAL Vs Ayia Napa2-3
31/01/26AOmonia 29is Maiou Vs AL3-1
24/01/26HAL Vs Doxa2-0
17/01/26APAEEK Vs AL3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.34
HomeLLLLL1.21
AwayDWWDL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals2.502.002.96
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %46%29%62%
Over 3.5 %20%8%31%
Scored1.080.831.31
Conceded1.421.171.65
BTTS46%33%58%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
ASIL Lysi
ASIL Lysi
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.28
HomeWLLLL1.54
AwayLLLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%25%
AVG goals2.442.312.58
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %22%19%25%
Scored1.101.310.88
Conceded1.341.001.71
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet24%38%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nea SalamisNea Salamis2976
83%
2.6
5615+41
2.4
69%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2221.90.5
-
2KarmiotissaKarmiotissa2956
55%
1.9
5426+28
2.8
72%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.90.9
-
3Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou2953
48%
1.8
6033+27
3.2
79%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0022.11.1
-
4PAEEKPAEEK2946
41%
1.6
4231+11
2.5
72%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5HalkanorasHalkanoras2945
45%
1.6
4737+10
2.9
72%
62%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
6DoxaDoxa2942
41%
1.4
3435-1
2.4
79%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
7Ayia NapaAyia Napa2941
38%
1.4
4243-1
2.9
83%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
8Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou2939
38%
1.3
4538+7
2.9
86%
55%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
9Spartakos KitiouSpartakos Kitiou2939
34%
1.3
4236+6
2.7
83%
45%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
10APEAAPEA2939
38%
1.3
3838+0
2.6
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
11Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou2937
28%
1.3
2730-3
2.0
62%
31%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.0
-
12ASIL LysiASIL Lysi2931
28%
1.1
3250-18
2.8
69%
48%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
13Ethnikos LatsionEthnikos Latsion2930
28%
1.0
2846-18
2.6
79%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
14MEAP NisouMEAP Nisou2929
28%
1.0
3150-19
2.8
76%
48%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
15AE ZakakiouAE Zakakiou2926
21%
0.9
3252-20
2.9
79%
48%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
16Ahironas / OnisilosAhironas / Onisilos298
3%
0.3
1868-50
3.0
83%
55%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Cyprus: 2. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →

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