Ayia Napa’s recent 3-0 win over Doxa shows a team that can score, yet their average of 1.23 goals per home game and 1.46 conceded suggests defensive fragility against stronger opponents. ASIL Lysi, after a 1-4 loss to Nea Salamis, has been on a losing streak but still averages 1.6 away goals while conceding 3.0, indicating they struggle defensively when traveling. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals, 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8 % chance. The favourite outcome is an away win, with a 48 % chance, followed by a 28 % home win and a 24 % draw. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98 %, Under 6.5 at 94.9 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.5 %, Under 5.5 at 88.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 87.6 %, Away +2 handicap at 87.2 %, Over 1.5 at 85.1 % and Away over 0.5 goals at 84.9 %. These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a low-goal, away-side-favoured outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ayia Napa win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi win
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ayia Napa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.21
1.50
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (26)
1.35
1.54
1.23
1.46
1.46
1.62
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASIL Lysi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.13
1.40
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.55
1.00
1.22
0.82
1.82
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
2.00
1.33
1.67
2.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.1%
Under 2.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
4.7%
Ayia Napa goals ↓
ASIL Lysi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.0%
6.6%
4.2%
2.0%
1
4.2%
11%
9.3%
5.9%
2.8%
2
3.7%
6.9%
6.5%
4.1%
2.0%
3
1.7%
3.2%
3.1%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayia Napa goals (down), columns = ASIL Lysi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Ayia Napa is 0.34 points better than ASIL Lysi in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Ayia Napa is 0.34 goals better than ASIL Lysi in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Ayia Napa is 0.24 goals better than ASIL Lysi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ayia Napa or Draw
52.1%
Avg Implied -
28%
24%
48%
covers Ayia Napa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa or ASIL Lysi
75.7%
Avg Implied -
28%
24%
48%
covers Ayia Napa + ASIL Lysi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ASIL Lysi
72.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
24%
48%
covers Draw + ASIL Lysi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ayia Napa, so a minus line means Ayia Napa give that many goals of a start and ASIL Lysi receive them. At -1, Ayia Napa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ayia Napa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa -2
4.6%
Draw -2
8.2%
ASIL Lysi +2
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa -1
12.8%
Draw -1
15.0%
ASIL Lysi +1
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa +1
52.1%
Draw +1
20.5%
ASIL Lysi -1
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa +2
72.5%
Draw +2
14.8%
ASIL Lysi -2
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ayia Napa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.43
0.93
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (26)
0.54
1.08
0.46
1.00
0.62
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASIL Lysi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.22
0.56
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.4%
Under 0.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.1%
Under 1.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ayia Napa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.79
0.57
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
0.46
0.77
0.46
0.85
0.46
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASIL Lysi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.95
0.78
0.67
0.27
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.6%
Under 0.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.9%
Under 1.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Doxa
Enosis
Digenis Morphou
Spartakos Kitiou
Ethnikos Achna
Anagennisi Deryneia
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Halkanoras
Polemidion
APEA
Akritas
Ermis
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou