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Ayia Napa vs Digenis Morphou Prediction & Stats

Date: 24/10/2026
Time: 12:00
Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Vs
15%
20%
66%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Digenis Morphou
Digenis Morphou
Cyprus: 2. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ayia Napa’s recent two-game winning streak has given the home side a glimmer of confidence, yet the Pythia model still sees Digenis Morphou as the clear favourite, rating an away win probability of 70%. The model’s confidence stems from Morphou’s strong away form: they average 2.5 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against weaker opponents, while Ayia Napa struggles at home, conceding 1.46 and scoring just 1.23 against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a lively match, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 21% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Digenis Morphou, with a 9.3% probability. Home win stands at 12%, draw at 18%, and away win at 70%. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 7.5 (97.0%), Away +2 handicap (95.6%), Under 6.5 (92.8%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.5%), Over 1.5 (88.0%) and Draw or Away (87.7%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayia Napa win
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou win
65.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L00D12L02L02L03L55D03L63W30WH·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03H·ASI21/03A·NEA04/04H·PAE19/04A·DOX25/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.471.211.501.561.44
vs Stronger (26)1.351.541.231.461.461.62
vs Similar (4)1.751.001.002.002.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W32W40W01L00D03L10W12L11DA·IRA14/02H·ETH21/02A·AE 28/02A·AHI07/03A·APE14/03H·HAL18/03A·SPA21/03H·IRA04/04A·ETH21/04H·AE 25/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.301.561.441.791.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.561.391.621.621.501.20
vs Weaker (12)1.831.171.501.252.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.0%
1-1
8.9%
1-3
7.6%
0-3
7.2%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.1%
1-4
4.5%
Ayia Napa goals ↓
Digenis Morphou goals →
01234
04.0%6.8%9.0%7.2%4.3%
12.6%8.9%9.6%7.6%4.5%
21.8%4.3%5.1%4.1%2.4%
30.6%1.5%1.8%1.4%0.9%
40.2%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayia Napa goals (down), columns = Digenis Morphou goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
Digenis Morphou
1.34
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Ayia Napa is 0.07 points better than Digenis Morphou in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.34).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Ayia Napa is 0.10 goals worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.55).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
Digenis Morphou
1.31
APEA
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Ayia Napa is 0.17 goals worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ayia Napa or Draw
34.4%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
66%
covers Ayia Napa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa or Digenis Morphou
80.3%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
66%
covers Ayia Napa + Digenis Morphou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Digenis Morphou
85.4%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
66%
covers Draw + Digenis Morphou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5
Over
90.7%
Under
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 3.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ayia Napa, so a minus line means Ayia Napa give that many goals of a start and Digenis Morphou receive them. At -1, Ayia Napa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ayia Napa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa -2
1.5%
Draw -2
3.9%
Digenis Morphou +2
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa -1
5.5%
Draw -1
9.2%
Digenis Morphou +1
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa +1
34.4%
Draw +1
21.5%
Digenis Morphou -1
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ayia Napa)
Ayia Napa +2
55.8%
Draw +2
19.5%
Digenis Morphou -2
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D02L02L02L23L02L33D00DH·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03H·ASI21/03A·NEA04/04H·PAE19/04A·DOX25/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.430.930.621.06
vs Stronger (26)0.541.080.461.000.621.15
vs Similar (4)0.500.500.000.000.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L20W00D00D02L00D02L00DA·IRA14/02H·ETH21/02A·AE 28/02A·AHI07/03A·APE14/03H·HAL18/03A·SPA21/03H·IRA04/04A·ETH21/04H·AE 25/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.440.750.640.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.280.670.120.880.400.50
vs Weaker (12)0.920.580.750.621.250.50
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D12L00D00D01L32W01L30W30WH·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03H·ASI21/03A·NEA04/04H·PAE19/04A·DOX25/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.470.790.570.940.38
vs Stronger (26)0.810.460.770.460.850.46
vs Similar (4)1.250.501.002.001.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W31W20W01L00D01L10W10W11DA·IRA14/02H·ETH21/02A·AE 28/02A·AHI07/03A·APE14/03H·HAL18/03A·SPA21/03H·IRA04/04A·ETH21/04H·AE 25/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.671.120.691.140.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.280.721.500.751.100.70
vs Weaker (12)0.920.580.750.621.250.50
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home under 3.5 goals97.7%-------
Under 7.597.5%-------
Away +2 handicap94.5%-------
Under 6.593.9%-------
Away over 0.5 goals90.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals90.7%-------
Over 1.586.6%-------
Under 5.586.5%-------
Draw or Away85.4%-------
Away +1 handicap85.4%-------
Home or Away80.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals78.3%-------
Under 4.573.6%-------
Home under 1.5 goals71.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (3)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
AN wins
0
Draws
1
DM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayia Napa vs Digenis Morphou · H/A from AN
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25ADigenis Morphou Vs AN1-2
14/12/24ADigenis Morphou Vs AN2-1
20/12/23ADigenis Morphou Vs AN0-1

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ADoxa Vs AN0-3
19/04/26HAN Vs PAEEK6-3
04/04/26ANea Salamis Vs AN3-0
21/03/26HAN Vs ASIL Lysi5-5
18/03/26AKarmiotissa Vs AN3-0
14/03/26HAN Vs MEAP Nisou0-2
06/03/26HAN Vs Omonia 29is Maiou0-2
28/02/26HAN Vs Doxa1-2
21/02/26APAEEK Vs AN0-0
14/02/26HAN Vs Nea Salamis0-2

Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HDM Vs AE Zakakiou1-1
21/04/26AEthnikos Latsion Vs DM2-1
04/04/26HDM Vs Iraklis Yerolakkou1-0
21/03/26ASpartakos Kitiou Vs DM3-0
18/03/26HDM Vs Halkanoras0-0
14/03/26AAPEA Vs DM1-0
07/03/26AAhironas / Onisilos Vs DM0-4
28/02/26AAE Zakakiou Vs DM2-3
21/02/26HDM Vs Ethnikos Latsion2-0
14/02/26AIraklis Yerolakkou Vs DM2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.36
HomeLLLDW1.32
AwayWDLLW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.822.603.04
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %52%36%68%
Over 3.5 %22%16%28%
Scored1.321.241.40
Conceded1.501.361.64
BTTS50%40%60%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Digenis Morphou
Digenis Morphou
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.50
HomeLWDWD1.64
AwayWWLLL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals3.163.003.32
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %62%52%72%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.721.681.76
Conceded1.441.321.56
BTTS60%64%56%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ethnikos AchnaEthnikos Achna00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2Anagennisi DeryneiaAnagennisi Deryneia00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
3DoxaDoxa00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
5EnosisEnosis00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
6Ayia NapaAyia Napa00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7HalkanorasHalkanoras00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8PolemidionPolemidion00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9APEAAPEA00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10ASIL LysiASIL Lysi00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11AkritasAkritas00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
12ErmisErmis00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
14Spartakos KitiouSpartakos Kitiou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15PAEEKPAEEK00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16MEAP NisouMEAP Nisou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →

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