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Ayr Utd vs Arbroath Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Vs
47%
32%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arbroath
Arbroath
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ayr United hosts Arbroath in the Scotland: Championship on August 1st. The home side has been coming off a draw, with their last match ending 1-1 against Dunfermline. Arbroath, meanwhile, drew their last match 0-0 against Inverness CT.

Defensively, Ayr United has been conceding an average of 1.09 goals at home, while Arbroath has been conceding 0.71 goals away against stronger opponents. On the other hand, Ayr United scores 0.91 goals at home, whereas Arbroath scores 0.43 goals away against stronger opponents.

The model predicts a 47% chance of a home win, 32% chance of a draw, and 22% chance of an away win, favouring Ayr United to win. The expected total number of goals is 2.1, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-0 win for Ayr United, with a 14.9% probability.

The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with an 84.5% probability and a 6% edge. The home win percentage is 47%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 22%. The model's selection, Under 3.5, has a 84.5% probability, while the Over 3.5 has a 15.5% probability.

Results analysis

Ayr United's win extends their run, having previously drawn with Dunfermline. The final score was 2-0, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, as the pre-match probability stood at 47%. The model's call was correct, as it was the favourite. The Under 3.5 goal selection, with a probability of 84.5%, hit, while the Over 3.5 goal selection, with a probability of 15.5%, missed. The model's Under 3.5 goal selection was a safe choice, given the expected total goals of 2.1 and the most likely total goals of 2, with a probability of 28%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayr Utd win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.16
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.23
Unibet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
10Bet
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.02
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Arbroath win✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.35
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.61
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.40

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D01L03L11D03L10W12L12L01LH·QUE10/03A·QUE14/03H·MOR21/03A·RAI27/03H·PAR04/04H·DUN07/04H·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04H·ST 01/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.371.001.271.131.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.041.331.071.361.001.31
vs Weaker (3)1.331.670.000.002.002.50
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L24L01L01L21W21W00D00D01L00DA·MOR28/03H·ST 04/04A·AYR11/04A·AYR11/04H·RAI18/04H·RAI18/04H·PAR25/04A·DUN01/05A·DUN05/05H·DUN08/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.931.120.810.931.07
vs Stronger (5)1.201.001.000.671.501.50
vs Similar (25)1.000.921.150.850.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.41-3.2%
Under 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.70+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.1%
@ 2.30-6.3%
Under 2.5
65.9%
@ 1.56+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Under
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.56
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.5%
@ 4.33-5.9%
Under 3.5
84.5%
@ 1.18+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.52
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.6%
@ 1.96-6.3%
No
59.4%
@ 1.74+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
1.98
No
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
BetVictor
1.73

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.9%@ 5.78+7.2%
1-1
14.0%@ 5.69+6.3%
0-0
13.9%@ 7.07+7.7%
2-0 ✓
10.3%@ 8.75+5.3%
0-1
8.7%@ 8.02+3.2%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.45+2.9%
1-2
5.0%@ 11.43+1.2%
3-0
4.4%@ 18.20+2.0%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
01234
014%8.7%3.9%1.0%0.2%
115%14%5.0%1.3%0.3%
210%8.2%3.2%0.8%0.2%
34.4%3.5%1.4%0.4%0.1%
41.4%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.60
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Inverness CT
1.05
Morton
1.04
Ayr Utd is 0.40 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Livingston
1.41
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.93
Ayr Utd is 0.19 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Partick
0.96
Livingston
0.98
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.49
Ayr Utd is 0.16 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ArbroathArbroath

For 4.7 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.1

🚩 Corners

1206664237824294244126610106968H·DUNA·DUNH·RAIA·AYRH·QUEH·AYRA·QUEA·RAIH·RAI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

704332322322135211755544522H·DUNA·DUNH·RAIA·AYRH·QUEH·AYRA·QUEA·RAIH·RAI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.9

⚠️ Fouls

29012111111111016131288139159151210232221292021242422H·DUNA·DUNH·RAIA·AYRH·QUEH·AYRA·QUEA·RAIH·RAI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.20.00.4---
vs Stronger (1)---0.00.0----
vs Similar (45)---0.20.00.4---
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---2%0%4%---
% under line---98%100%96%---
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.48.38.41.21.31.223.622.724.6
vs Stronger (8)7.87.08.54.24.54.024.022.225.8
vs Similar (42)9.210.08.30.70.70.623.223.323.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line36%29%43%20%24%16%71%57%86%
% under line64%71%57%80%76%84%29%43%14%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Morton
11.0
Partick
10.3
Livingston
10.1
Arbroath
9.8
Inverness CT
9.1
Dunfermline
9.1
Stenhousemuir
8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Ayr Utd
9.0
Stenhousemuir
4.9
Morton
4.6
Livingston
4.3
Partick
4.3
Dunfermline
4.0
Arbroath
3.7
Inverness CT
3.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.2
Livingston
25.1
Morton
21.8
Inverness CT
21.7
Dunfermline
21.4
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
@ 1.76-5.4%
Under 9.5
52.8%
@ 1.95+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.6%
Under 21.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D01L01L00D01L00D11D10W01LH·QUE10/03A·QUE14/03H·MOR21/03A·RAI27/03H·PAR04/04H·DUN07/04H·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04H·ST 01/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.600.470.870.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.740.480.640.500.850.46
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D00D00D10W10W00D00D01L00DA·MOR28/03H·ST 04/04A·AYR11/04A·AYR11/04H·RAI18/04H·RAI18/04H·PAR25/04A·DUN01/05A·DUN05/05H·DUN08/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.330.380.120.570.57
vs Stronger (5)0.600.000.330.001.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.440.400.380.150.500.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.5%1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+5.9%✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards77.6%--------
Under 25.5 fouls77.1%--------
Under 5.5 cards77.0%--------
Under 11.5 corners75.7%1.35
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
+7.6%-
Over 19.5 fouls70.1%--------

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
PAR (22)
€3m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (10)
€3m
LIV (12)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€3m
PAR (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Ayr Utd vs Arbroath · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HAU Vs Arbroath1-0
03/03/26AArbroath Vs AU1-1
15/11/25HAU Vs Arbroath1-1
01/08/25AArbroath Vs AU1-1
13/04/24HAU Vs Arbroath5-0
23/01/24HAU Vs Arbroath2-0
13/01/24AArbroath Vs AU0-0
02/09/23AArbroath Vs AU2-1

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/26HAU Vs ST Johnstone0-1
25/04/26AAirdrie United Vs AU2-1
18/04/26ARoss County Vs AU2-1
11/04/26HAU Vs Arbroath1-0
07/04/26HAU Vs Dunfermline0-3
04/04/26HAU Vs Partick1-1
27/03/26ARaith Rovers Vs AU3-0
21/03/26HAU Vs Morton0-1
14/03/26AQueen's Park Vs AU1-1
10/03/26HAU Vs Queen's Park1-2

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26HARB Vs Dunfermline0-0
05/05/26ADunfermline Vs ARB1-0
01/05/26ADunfermline Vs ARB0-0
25/04/26HARB Vs Partick0-0
18/04/26HARB Vs Raith Rovers2-1
18/04/26HARB Vs Raith Rvs2-1
11/04/26AAyr Utd Vs ARB1-0
11/04/26AAyr Vs ARB1-0
04/04/26HARB Vs ST Johnstone2-4
28/03/26AMorton Vs ARB2-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.14
HomeLDLWL1.12
AwayDDLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.482.402.56
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored1.121.161.08
Conceded1.361.241.48
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards9.00-9.00
Arbroath
Arbroath
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLD1.44
HomeLWWDD1.80
AwayLLLDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.322.402.24
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.201.440.96
Conceded1.120.961.28
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners8.368.298.43
Cards4.434.714.14

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PartickPartick26
100%
3.0
30+3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.0
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
3Ayr UtdAyr Utd24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
4Raith RoversRaith Rovers24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
5LivingstonLivingston23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2321.01.0
-
6DunfermlineDunfermline22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3120.50.5
-
7Inverness CTInverness CT22
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8ArbroathArbroath21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0110.01.0
-
9QueenQueen's Park20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
10MortonMorton20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.01.5
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Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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