Ayr Utd’s defensive record at home is flawless, conceding no goals in recent matches, while Inverness CT has struggled away, conceding more than they score against stronger opponents. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, a draw 35%, and an away win 27%. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 16.8%. Ayr’s average home scoring of 2.0 goals and zero conceded, versus Inverness’s away average of 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded, underline the tight, low-scoring outlook. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 4.5 (95.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.0%), and Home under 2.5 goals (91.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ayr Utd win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ayr Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.13
1.07
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.46
1.07
1.14
1.00
1.79
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.79
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (24)
1.50
0.83
1.85
0.62
1.09
1.09
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.7%
Under 1.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.5%
Under 2.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.8%
Under 3.5
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
37.8%
No
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.9%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
14.0%
0-1
12.3%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
6.6%
0-2
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
12%
6.0%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.9%
1.7%
0.4%
2
7.5%
6.6%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Ayr Utd is 0.09 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.99).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Ayr Utd is 0.18 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Ayr Utd is 0.28 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ayr Utd
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ayr Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.2
0.0
0.3
22.0
22.0
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
10.0
10.0
-
0.2
0.0
0.3
22.0
22.0
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
0%
4%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
100%
96%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.7
8.1
2.6
2.4
2.8
21.8
21.3
22.4
vs Stronger (43)
9.0
9.9
8.1
2.4
2.0
2.9
21.5
20.8
22.1
vs Similar (2)
4.0
-
4.0
0.5
-
0.5
18.0
-
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
8.5
10.5
5.0
6.5
4.0
25.8
25.0
26.5
% over line
37%
42%
32%
34%
29%
38%
50%
47%
53%
% under line
63%
58%
68%
66%
71%
62%
50%
53%
47%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.7%
Under 9.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
61.5%
Under 21.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ayr Utd or Draw
70.4%
Avg Implied -
35%
35%
30%
covers Ayr Utd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd or Inverness CT
65.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
35%
30%
covers Ayr Utd + Inverness CT
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Inverness CT
64.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
35%
30%
covers Draw + Inverness CT
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ayr Utd, so a minus line means Ayr Utd give that many goals of a start and Inverness CT receive them. At -1, Ayr Utd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ayr Utd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd -2
3.9%
Draw -2
9.9%
Inverness CT +2
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd -1
13.9%
Draw -1
21.6%
Inverness CT +1
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd +1
70.4%
Draw +1
19.1%
Inverness CT -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd +2
89.4%
Draw +2
7.9%
Inverness CT -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ayr Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.64
0.29
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.79
0.36
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.29
0.77
0.31
0.36
0.27
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.7%
Under 0.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.0%
Under 1.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
7.9%
Under 2.5
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.6%
Under
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ayr Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.93
0.43
0.86
0.21
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.29
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
0.54
1.08
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.3%
Under 0.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.8%
Under 1.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.4%
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Home +1 handicap
70.4%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Ayr Utd's squad is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Inverness CT have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd's defence is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€1m vs €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Dunfermline
Morton
Queen's Park