Ayr Utd are the clear favourites to win, with a 50 % chance of triumph, a 28 % chance of a draw and a 23 % chance of Morton pulling off an upset. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1 % chance. Ayr’s home form shows they average 1.07 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition, while Morton’s away record against similar teams yields 1.0 goal scored and 2.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 % with a 5 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4 % with a 6 % edge) and Under 5.5 (95.1 % with a 4 % edge). The recent form narrative shows Ayr after two straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to Raith Rovers, while Morton come off five straight defeats and a 1-2 loss to Arbroath.
Results analysis
A surprising 1-1 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Ayr Utd, fail to win, a clear miss for the model’s call. The final score matched the actual result, ending both sides’ recent runs with a draw. The model had picked a home win at 49% probability, but the outcome was a stalemate. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.3%, and Under 5.5 hit at 95.2%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and no other side was called favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
49.0%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.67
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Dafabet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.71
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.53
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Betfair
3.70
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Morton win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.67
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.95
Dafabet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.75
Bet365
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ayr Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.27
1.00
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.48
1.08
1.15
1.00
1.79
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.73
0.87
1.00
2.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.58
0.79
0.93
1.08
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.31+3.5%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 3.17-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.29
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.00+1.3%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.75-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.03
Betano
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
@ 3.48-0.5%
Under 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.26+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.91+3.5%
No
48.2%
@ 1.78-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
Superbet
1.92
No
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%@ 6.53+6.5%
1-0
10.6%@ 5.80+3.0%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.74+3.8%
2-0
9.3%@ 7.07+3.0%
0-0
8.7%@ 8.45+3.5%
0-1
6.4%@ 10.78+2.4%
1-2
6.1%@ 14.24+3.0%
3-1
4.9%@ 13.25+1.6%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Morton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.4%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.4%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.9%
4.9%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Ayr Utd is 0.04 points better than Morton in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Ayr Utd is 0.06 goals better than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Ayr Utd is 0.07 goals better than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ayr Utd
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ayr Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
22.0
22.0
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
10.0
10.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
22.0
22.0
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
0%
4%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
100%
96%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
10.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
22.6
23.0
22.2
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
5.5
8.5
2.5
22.0
24.5
19.5
vs Similar (44)
9.8
10.0
9.5
0.7
0.3
1.0
22.9
22.2
23.5
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
67%
10%
9%
11%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
90%
91%
89%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.5%
@ 1.63-4.2%
Under 9.5
47.5%
@ 2.13+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.07
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.1%
Under 3.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.5%
Under 21.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ayr Utd or Draw✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.15
Edge
-3.7%
49%
28%
23%
covers Ayr Utd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Ayr Utd or Morton✗ Miss
72.3%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.3%
49%
28%
23%
covers Ayr Utd + Morton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Morton✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.06
Edge
+6.0%
49%
28%
23%
covers Draw + Morton
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
@ 1.17-0.0%
Under
20.8%
@ 4.44+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
BetVictor
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.6%
@ 1.86-3.3%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.84+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 3.71-4.0%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.23+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.89
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Ayr Utd over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 7.88-4.4%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.06+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Morton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.61+6.3%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.18-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.62
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Morton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.1%
@ 3.93+3.5%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.21-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Morton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 9.40-1.6%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.20
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Morton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 17.00-98.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ayr Utd, so a minus line means Ayr Utd give that many goals of a start and Morton receive them. At -1, Ayr Utd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ayr Utd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ayr Utd)Actual: Morton
Ayr Utd -2
10.8%
@ 5.69-4.8%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 4.66-3.7%
Morton +2
73.9%
@ 1.36+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Unibet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Ayr Utd)Actual: Morton
Ayr Utd -1
26.1%
@ 2.84-5.0%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.38-3.3%
Morton +1
51.0%
@ 2.07+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Unibet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Away
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Ayr Utd)Actual: Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd +1
76.7%
@ 1.15+1.3%
Draw +1
14.4%
@ 5.63-0.9%
Morton -1
8.9%
@ 9.32-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Handicap +2 (Ayr Utd)Actual: Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd +2
91.1%
@ 1.04+0.6%
Draw +2
6.4%
@ 15.00+0.2%
Morton -2
2.5%
@ 29.00-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ayr Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.27
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.56
0.62
0.31
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.50
0.36
0.43
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.0%
@ 1.40+2.8%
Under 0.5
31.0%
@ 2.74-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.1%
@ 2.89-1.0%
Under 1.5
68.9%
@ 1.37+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Betano
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 7.29-2.4%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.06+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 1.77-4.3%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.94+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 4.80-5.9%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.14+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.75-5.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.84+3.3%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.38-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Under
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 9.76-1.4%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.90
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ayr Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.93
0.46
0.85
0.21
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.17
0.40
0.47
0.33
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
1.08
0.43
0.50
0.33
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.0%
@ 1.25-3.1%
Under 0.5
29.0%
@ 3.56+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.42
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.19-3.8%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.61+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.9%
@ 4.74-3.6%
Under 2.5
84.1%
@ 1.15+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.8%
@ 1.54-9.3%
Under
49.2%
@ 2.33+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 3.51-8.2%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.25+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.90-5.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.6%
@ 2.29+1.2%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.55-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.51
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 7.62-0.6%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.05+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.10
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 12.50-5.2%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.9%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.13
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.2%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.1%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
76.7%
1.15
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.9%
1.21
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.3%
1.24
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-2.3%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
1.44
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.38
+7.1%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.0%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
-3.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Ayr Utd's squad is €1m more valuable than Morton's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Morton have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Morton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Morton have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Queen's Park