Ayr Utd’s home record shows a solid defensive stance, conceding no goals on average, yet they have struggled recently, losing twice in a row before a win. Stenhousemuir, playing away, have been more potent, scoring 1.5 goals per game, but against stronger opposition they have given up 0.86. The model favours an away win, with a 37% chance, while a draw sits at 33% and a home win at 30%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% probability. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 4.5 (94.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.7%), and Away under 2.5 goals (90.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ayr Utd win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir win
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ayr Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.13
1.07
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.46
1.07
1.14
1.00
1.79
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.86
vs Stronger (29)
1.48
0.69
1.47
0.53
1.50
0.86
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.5%
Under 2.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.0%
No
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.3%
0-1
13.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
5.6%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Stenhousemuir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.0%
3.0%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
5.6%
6.3%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Ayr Utd is 0.17 points worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Ayr Utd is 0.19 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Ayr Utd is 0.31 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ayr Utd
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stenhousemuir
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ayr Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
22.0
22.0
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
22.0
22.0
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
0%
4%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
100%
96%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.6
8.2
3.2
2.7
3.7
26.9
27.7
26.2
vs Stronger (49)
8.4
8.6
8.2
3.2
2.8
3.7
26.9
27.7
26.2
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
40%
38%
48%
41%
57%
81%
87%
75%
% under line
61%
60%
62%
52%
59%
43%
19%
13%
25%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.7%
Under 9.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.2%
Under 21.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ayr Utd or Draw
61.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
33%
38%
covers Ayr Utd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd or Stenhousemuir
67.0%
Avg Implied -
29%
33%
38%
covers Ayr Utd + Stenhousemuir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stenhousemuir
71.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
33%
38%
covers Draw + Stenhousemuir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ayr Utd, so a minus line means Ayr Utd give that many goals of a start and Stenhousemuir receive them. At -1, Ayr Utd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ayr Utd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd -2
2.9%
Draw -2
7.8%
Stenhousemuir +2
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd -1
10.7%
Draw -1
18.2%
Stenhousemuir +1
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd +1
61.8%
Draw +1
21.9%
Stenhousemuir -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ayr Utd)
Ayr Utd +2
83.8%
Draw +2
11.2%
Stenhousemuir -2
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ayr Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.64
0.29
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.27
0.56
0.19
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (29)
0.79
0.28
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.36
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ayr Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.93
0.43
0.86
0.21
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.41
0.87
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Ayr Utd's squad is €2m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€2m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd's defence is €1m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€1m vs €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park