This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.40
1.50
1.19
1.14
1.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.54
1.58
1.33
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.2%
@ 1.93-7.3%
Under 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.82+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
10.6%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
6.0%
Ayr goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.4%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.0%
7.3%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Ayr is 0.11 points better than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.97).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Ayr is 0.08 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Ayr is 0.03 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.47).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
A
Ayr
For 3.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 9.1 · Total 22.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
For 5.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.2
3.4
3.6
3.2
21.7
23.4
20.0
vs Stronger (3)
11.3
8.0
13.0
2.0
4.0
1.0
22.7
27.0
20.5
vs Similar (36)
9.8
10.3
9.3
3.6
3.7
3.4
21.5
23.3
19.5
vs Weaker (11)
10.5
8.8
12.0
3.5
3.4
3.5
22.4
23.4
21.5
% over line
54%
52%
56%
54%
64%
44%
50%
64%
36%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
46%
36%
56%
50%
36%
64%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.0
12.0
3.0
3.1
2.9
20.0
19.1
21.0
vs Stronger (3)
11.3
10.0
14.0
3.7
5.0
1.0
27.0
26.5
28.0
vs Similar (42)
10.9
9.9
12.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
19.8
18.7
21.0
vs Weaker (5)
10.8
10.3
11.5
4.0
4.7
3.0
17.4
17.3
17.5
% over line
72%
59%
87%
36%
41%
30%
34%
22%
48%
% under line
28%
41%
13%
64%
59%
70%
66%
78%
52%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dunfermline
10.9
Raith Rvs
10.7
Hamilton
10.5
Inverness CT
10.4
Partick
10.4
Kilmarnock
10.3
Morton
10.3
Queen of Sth
10.1
Ayr
10.1
Arbroath
9.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.2
Kilmarnock
3.7
Ayr
3.4
Inverness CT
3.3
Queen of Sth
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Hamilton
3.2
Dunfermline
3.0
Morton
3.0
Partick
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kilmarnock
25.6
Hamilton
24.5
Arbroath
22.9
Raith Rvs
22.9
Inverness CT
22.5
Ayr
21.7
Queen of Sth
20.6
Morton
20.0
Dunfermline
20.0
Partick
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.5%
Under 21.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.42
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.56
0.56
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.79
0.67
0.67
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.36
0.50
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
0.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.63
0.30
0.40
0.89
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.94
0.62
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.75
0.92
0.67
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dunfermline
Kilmarnock
Arbroath
Inverness CT
Partick
Morton