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Ayr vs Partick Result & Analysis

Date: 29/04/2022
Time: 19:45
Final 3-1
A
Ayr
Vs
27%
28%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Partick
Partick
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ayr win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.33
Edge
-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.26
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partick win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.94
Edge
+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

A
Ayr

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L40W13L01L11D11D22D12L11DA·INV19/02H·QUE26/02A·RAI05/03H·KIL11/03A·ARB19/03A·MOR26/03H·HAM01/04H·INV09/04A·DUN16/04A·QUE23/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.430.931.361.121.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.961.500.731.361.151.62
vs Weaker (6)1.331.171.671.331.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PartickPartick

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W12L04L14L12L00D10W01L10WH·INV04/03H·QUE08/03A·MOR12/03H·HAM19/03A·DUN22/03A·KIL26/03H·ARB02/04A·QUE08/04H·RAI16/04H·DUN23/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.970.690.691.641.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.110.960.710.791.541.15
vs Weaker (3)1.331.000.500.003.003.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
@ 2.03+3.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.73-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.3%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.2%
Ayr goals ↓
Partick goals →
01234
08.3%9.6%8.2%4.2%1.6%
16.7%13%9.2%4.7%1.8%
24.5%6.8%5.2%2.6%1.0%
31.7%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr goals (down), columns = Partick goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Ayr is 0.36 points worse than Partick in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.44).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Ayr is 0.19 goals worse than Partick in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.28).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Ayr is 0.33 goals worse than Partick in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.11).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

A
Ayr

For 5.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

140734455689547583394110108101414111361311A·QUEA·DUNH·INVH·HAMA·MORA·ARBH·KILA·RAIH·QUEA·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

603113124112312123124416253153A·QUEA·DUNH·INVH·HAMA·MORA·ARBH·KILA·RAIH·QUEA·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

31011766512581813141012111515111214818121713312423302322A·QUEA·DUNH·INVH·HAMA·MORA·ARBH·KILA·RAIH·QUEA·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PartickPartick

For 4.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 7.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

140156533327273237732246116591051456H·DUNH·RAIA·QUEH·ARBA·KILA·DUNH·HAMA·MORH·QUEH·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50122413213212121450335330H·DUNH·RAIA·QUEH·ARBA·KILA·DUNH·HAMA·MORH·QUEH·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 10.1 · Total 18.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

25091412131012107139877106125108723252217221517181515H·DUNH·RAIA·QUEH·ARBA·KILA·DUNH·HAMA·MORH·QUEH·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Ayr

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.99.710.13.43.43.421.021.620.3
vs Stronger (2)11.58.015.03.04.02.025.027.023.0
vs Similar (36)9.810.09.73.63.63.520.120.919.3
vs Weaker (12)9.99.210.73.02.53.522.923.022.8
% over line56%52%60%52%56%48%42%52%32%
% under line44%48%40%48%44%52%58%48%68%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PartickPartick

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.79.63.23.03.520.919.722.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (42)9.79.69.83.33.03.620.919.622.2
vs Weaker (8)9.610.29.02.92.83.021.220.522.0
% over line52%44%60%38%40%36%48%32%64%
% under line48%56%40%62%60%64%52%68%36%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.5
Morton
10.4
Dunfermline
10.3
Queen of Sth
10.2
Raith Rvs
10.1
Arbroath
9.9
Ayr
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.8
Partick
9.7
Inverness CT
9.1

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.1
Hamilton
3.8
Inverness CT
3.5
Ayr
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.3
Partick
3.2
Dunfermline
3.0
Morton
3.0
Queen of Sth
2.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Kilmarnock
24.0
Hamilton
23.9
Inverness CT
23.4
Arbroath
22.7
Raith Rvs
21.8
Dunfermline
21.2
Ayr
21.0
Partick
20.9
Morton
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.2%
Under 9.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
45.8%
Under 21.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

A
Ayr

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L30W13L00D01L01L02L10W00DA·INV19/02H·QUE26/02A·RAI05/03H·KIL11/03A·ARB19/03A·MOR26/03H·HAM01/04H·INV09/04A·DUN16/04A·QUE23/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.870.361.000.380.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.330.920.270.910.380.92
vs Weaker (6)0.500.670.671.330.330.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PartickPartick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W02L13L01L00D00D00D10WH·INV04/03H·QUE08/03A·MOR12/03H·HAM19/03A·DUN22/03A·KIL26/03H·ARB02/04A·QUE08/04H·RAI16/04H·DUN23/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.370.190.190.640.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.370.330.210.210.540.46
vs Weaker (3)0.670.670.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

A
Ayr

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D01L10W10W20W02L11DA·INV19/02H·QUE26/02A·RAI05/03H·KIL11/03A·ARB19/03A·MOR26/03H·HAM01/04H·INV09/04A·DUN16/04A·QUE23/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.570.360.750.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.620.580.450.450.770.69
vs Weaker (6)0.830.501.000.000.671.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PartickPartick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L02L01L11D00D10W01L00DH·INV04/03H·QUE08/03A·MOR12/03H·HAM19/03A·DUN22/03A·KIL26/03H·ARB02/04A·QUE08/04H·RAI16/04H·DUN23/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.500.501.000.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.740.630.500.571.000.69
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards88.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls82.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners70.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls70.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (9)
€3m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (5)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
AYR wins
1
Draws
4
PAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayr vs Partick · H/A from AYR
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/22APartick Vs AYR1-0
13/11/21HAYR Vs Partick0-4
02/10/21APartick Vs AYR4-0
31/01/20APartick Vs AYR1-1
02/11/19HAYR Vs Partick4-1
31/08/19APartick Vs AYR2-3
27/04/19APartick Vs AYR1-2
23/04/19HAYR Vs Partick0-1

A
Ayr

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/22AQueen of Sth Vs AYR1-1
16/04/22ADunfermline Vs AYR2-1
09/04/22HAYR Vs Inverness CT2-2
01/04/22HAYR Vs Hamilton1-1
26/03/22AMorton Vs AYR1-1
19/03/22AArbroath Vs AYR1-0
11/03/22HAYR Vs Kilmarnock1-3
05/03/22ARaith Rvs Vs AYR0-4
26/02/22HAYR Vs Queen of Sth0-1
19/02/22AInverness CT Vs AYR1-2

PartickPartick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/22HPAR Vs Dunfermline1-0
16/04/22HPAR Vs Raith Rvs0-1
08/04/22AQueen of Sth Vs PAR0-1
02/04/22HPAR Vs Arbroath0-0
26/03/22AKilmarnock Vs PAR2-1
22/03/22ADunfermline Vs PAR4-1
19/03/22HPAR Vs Hamilton0-4
12/03/22AMorton Vs PAR2-1
08/03/22HPAR Vs Queen of Sth1-0
04/03/22HPAR Vs Inverness CT1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLD1.02
HomeDLLDD1.00
AwayWLDLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%20%24%
AVG goals2.462.322.60
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.020.961.08
Conceded1.441.361.52
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners9.929.7210.12
Cards3.403.363.44
Partick
Partick
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.62
HomeWLDLW1.80
AwayDLLLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals2.562.003.12
Over 1.5 %62%48%76%
Over 2.5 %46%28%64%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored1.561.321.80
Conceded1.000.681.32
BTTS36%16%56%
Clean Sheet52%60%44%
Corners9.689.729.64
Cards3.243.003.48

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KilmarnockKilmarnock3667
56%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
67%
36%
14%
9.9
47%
3.2
36%
22.6
64%
7
3231.40.8
-
2ArbroathArbroath3665
47%
1.8
5428+26
2.3
61%
44%
22%
10.3
58%
3.3
50%
21.8
47%
1
0001.50.8
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3659
44%
1.6
5334+19
2.4
64%
47%
22%
8.8
42%
3.3
39%
21.9
50%
1
0001.50.9
-
4PartickPartick3652
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
56%
44%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
20.7
44%
3
1111.31.1
-
5
RR
Raith Rvs
3650
33%
1.4
4444+0
2.4
67%
39%
22%
10.2
53%
3.7
58%
21.2
47%
0
0001.21.2
-
6
H
Hamilton
3642
28%
1.2
3853-15
2.5
69%
42%
25%
10.4
47%
3.9
56%
23.2
61%
0
0001.11.5
-
7MortonMorton3640
25%
1.1
3647-11
2.3
64%
42%
22%
10.4
61%
2.8
31%
20.1
33%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
3639
25%
1.1
3952-13
2.5
81%
47%
28%
10.2
61%
3.4
53%
20.3
39%
0
0001.11.4
-
9DunfermlineDunfermline3635
19%
1.0
3653-17
2.5
72%
47%
25%
10.1
56%
3.2
42%
21.1
50%
4
2021.01.5
-
10
QO
Queen of Sth
3633
22%
0.9
3654-18
2.5
67%
50%
19%
10.6
64%
2.8
28%
19.7
36%
0
0001.01.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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