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Baden vs FC Aarau Result & Analysis

Date: 30/01/2024
Time: 19:15
Final 1-2
Baden
Baden
Vs
24%
24%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Baden win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✓ Hit
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BadenBaden

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D04L10W21W04L13L02L02L11DH·FC 01/10A·STA06/10H·FC 21/10A·FC 27/10A·FC 05/11H·NEU10/11A·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.060.752.500.901.70
vs Stronger (7)0.712.570.673.000.752.25
vs Similar (11)0.911.730.802.201.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W12L22D11D52W04L00D11D12L10WA·FC 29/09H·BEL08/10A·FC 22/10H·FC 27/10H·FC 03/11A·STA12/11H·FC 26/11H·FC 10/12A·NEU15/12H·FC 26/01
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.401.621.381.641.43
vs Stronger (3)2.672.005.002.001.502.00
vs Similar (15)1.471.131.121.251.861.00
vs Weaker (12)1.581.581.711.431.401.80
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2 ✓
9.7%
0-2
7.7%
0-1
7.0%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
Baden goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
01234
05.1%7.0%7.7%5.0%2.4%
14.2%11%9.7%6.2%3.0%
23.3%6.3%6.1%3.9%1.9%
31.4%2.6%2.5%1.6%0.8%
40.4%0.8%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baden goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
Baden is 0.47 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
Baden is 0.56 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
Baden is 0.64 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 1.64).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BadenBaden

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W01L10W11D03L12L02L01L01LH·FC 01/10A·STA06/10H·FC 21/10A·FC 27/10A·FC 05/11H·NEU10/11A·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.441.060.251.000.601.10
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.000.670.251.25
vs Similar (11)0.641.090.401.200.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %28% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L21W01L30W01L00D10W12L00DA·FC 29/09H·BEL08/10A·FC 22/10H·FC 27/10H·FC 03/11A·STA12/11H·FC 26/11H·FC 10/12A·NEU15/12H·FC 26/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.670.810.691.070.64
vs Stronger (3)2.000.333.000.001.500.50
vs Similar (15)0.730.600.380.621.140.57
vs Weaker (12)0.920.831.000.860.800.80
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BadenBaden

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L03L00D10W01L01L00D01L10WH·FC 01/10A·STA06/10H·FC 21/10A·FC 27/10A·FC 05/11H·NEU10/11A·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.391.000.501.500.300.60
vs Stronger (7)0.571.570.672.330.501.00
vs Similar (11)0.270.640.401.000.170.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L10W22D03L00D01L00D10WA·FC 29/09H·BEL08/10A·FC 22/10H·FC 27/10H·FC 03/11A·STA12/11H·FC 26/11H·FC 10/12A·NEU15/12H·FC 26/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.810.690.570.79
vs Stronger (3)0.671.672.002.000.001.50
vs Similar (15)0.730.530.750.620.710.43
vs Weaker (12)0.670.750.710.570.601.00
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BAD wins
0
Draws
1
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Baden vs FC Aarau · H/A from BAD
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/23AFC Aarau Vs BAD1-0

BadenBaden

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BAD1-1
16/12/23HBAD Vs FC Thun0-2
08/12/23AFC Schaffhausen Vs BAD2-0
26/11/23ABellinzona Vs BAD3-1
10/11/23HBAD Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-4
05/11/23AFC Vaduz Vs BAD1-2
27/10/23AFC WIL 1900 Vs BAD0-1
21/10/23HBAD Vs FC Sion0-4
06/10/23AStade Nyonnais Vs BAD1-1
01/10/23HBAD Vs FC Schaffhausen1-1

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/24HFA Vs FC Vaduz1-0
15/12/23ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA2-1
10/12/23HFA Vs FC WIL 19001-1
26/11/23HFA Vs FC Sion0-0
12/11/23AStade Nyonnais Vs FA4-0
03/11/23HFA Vs FC Thun5-2
27/10/23HFA Vs FC Schaffhausen1-1
22/10/23AFC Vaduz Vs FA2-2
08/10/23HFA Vs Bellinzona1-2
29/09/23AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Baden
Baden
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD0.94
HomeWDLLL0.62
AwayWWLLD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%12%30%
AVG goals2.893.252.60
Over 1.5 %89%100%80%
Over 2.5 %44%50%40%
Over 3.5 %33%50%20%
Scored0.830.750.90
Conceded2.062.501.70
BTTS50%38%60%
Clean Sheet11%12%10%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.50
HomeDWDDW1.58
AwayLWDLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%42%38%
AVG goals3.203.083.33
Over 1.5 %78%73%83%
Over 2.5 %58%50%67%
Over 3.5 %46%38%54%
Scored1.641.691.58
Conceded1.561.381.75
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC SionFC Sion3679
64%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
78%
56%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
30
15692.00.6
-
2FC ThunFC Thun3676
64%
2.1
7338+35
3.1
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4582.01.1
-
3FC VaduzFC Vaduz3649
36%
1.4
6755+12
3.4
81%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
4Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
31%
1.4
5545+10
2.8
86%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.2
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003644
31%
1.2
4852-4
2.8
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.4
-
6FC AarauFC Aarau3643
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.41.6
-
7Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
83%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
8BellinzonaBellinzona3642
31%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
69%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.4
-
9FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3638
22%
1.1
3655-19
2.5
78%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10BadenBaden3626
17%
0.7
3182-51
3.1
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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