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Baden vs FC Vaduz Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 1-1
Baden
Baden
Vs
22%
25%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Baden win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BadenBaden

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L02L02L11D12L21W14L01L23L13LA·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01H·FC 30/01H·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02A·FC 02/03
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.922.120.922.250.922.00
vs Stronger (10)0.802.700.752.750.832.67
vs Similar (14)1.001.711.002.001.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %8% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D11D01L12L01L53W01L12L10W32WH·FC 24/11A·NEU01/12A·STA08/12H·BEL17/12A·FC 26/01H·NEU04/02A·FC 10/02H·FC 16/02A·BEL28/02H·FC 03/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.571.871.671.601.47
vs Stronger (5)1.202.000.671.672.002.50
vs Similar (23)1.831.432.271.641.421.25
vs Weaker (2)2.002.001.002.003.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.5%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Baden goals ↓
FC Vaduz goals →
01234
06.0%8.3%8.8%5.5%2.6%
14.5%12%9.8%6.2%2.9%
23.1%5.9%5.5%3.5%1.6%
31.2%2.2%2.1%1.3%0.6%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baden goals (down), columns = FC Vaduz goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
Baden is 0.64 points worse than FC Vaduz in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
Baden is 1.00 goals worse than FC Vaduz in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
Baden is 0.75 goals worse than FC Vaduz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 1.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BadenBaden

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L01L01L01L11D02L00D10W01LA·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01H·FC 30/01H·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02A·FC 02/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.421.000.330.830.501.17
vs Stronger (10)0.101.100.000.750.171.33
vs Similar (14)0.640.930.500.880.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L00D00D30W01L10W00D00DH·FC 24/11A·NEU01/12A·STA08/12H·BEL17/12A·FC 26/01H·NEU04/02A·FC 10/02H·FC 16/02A·BEL28/02H·FC 03/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.600.400.730.60
vs Stronger (5)1.000.600.330.332.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.610.480.640.360.580.58
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BadenBaden

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D01L10W11D10W12L01L13L12LA·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01H·FC 30/01H·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02A·FC 02/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.120.581.420.420.83
vs Stronger (10)0.701.600.752.000.671.33
vs Similar (14)0.360.790.501.120.170.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %42% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D00D12L01L23L00D02L10W32WH·FC 24/11A·NEU01/12A·STA08/12H·BEL17/12A·FC 26/01H·NEU04/02A·FC 10/02H·FC 16/02A·BEL28/02H·FC 03/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.071.271.270.870.87
vs Stronger (5)0.201.400.331.330.001.50
vs Similar (23)1.220.961.641.270.830.67
vs Weaker (2)1.501.500.001.003.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.1%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Vaduz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcel Monsberger40%
Juan Cabrera40%
Lutfi Dalipi40%
Dominik Schwizer33%
Julian Stark20%
MiloÅĄ Cocić20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Denis Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
Niklas Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Malik Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denis Simani50%
Julian Stark40%
Juan Cabrera40%
Dejan Đokić33%
Malik Sawadogo25%
Marcel Monsberger20%
Nicolas Hasler20%
Luca Mack20%
Lutfi Dalipi20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dominik Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Niklas Lang0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
MiloÅĄ Cocić0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Mattia Walker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lutfi Dalipi60%
Nicolas Hasler40%
Dejan Sorgić33%
Marcel Monsberger20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dominik Schwizer0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Denis Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Luca Mack0%
Niklas Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
MiloÅĄ Cocić0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Juan Cabrera0%
Malik Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcel Monsberger60%
Juan Cabrera40%
Lutfi Dalipi20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dominik Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Denis Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
Niklas Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
MiloÅĄ Cocić0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Malik Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BAD wins
0
Draws
1
FV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Baden vs FC Vaduz · H/A from BAD
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/23AFC Vaduz Vs BAD1-2
13/08/23HBAD Vs FC Vaduz2-3

BadenBaden

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24AFC Thun Vs BAD3-1
24/02/24HBAD Vs Stade Nyonnais2-3
17/02/24HBAD Vs FC Schaffhausen0-1
09/02/24AFC Sion Vs BAD4-1
04/02/24HBAD Vs Bellinzona2-1
30/01/24HBAD Vs FC Aarau1-2
26/01/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BAD1-1
16/12/23HBAD Vs FC Thun0-2
08/12/23AFC Schaffhausen Vs BAD2-0
26/11/23ABellinzona Vs BAD3-1

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/24HFV Vs FC Schaffhausen3-2
28/02/24ABellinzona Vs FV0-1
16/02/24HFV Vs FC Sion1-2
10/02/24AFC WIL 1900 Vs FV1-0
04/02/24HFV Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC5-3
26/01/24AFC Aarau Vs FV1-0
17/12/23HFV Vs Bellinzona1-2
08/12/23AStade Nyonnais Vs FV1-0
01/12/23ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FV1-1
24/11/23HFV Vs FC WIL 19002-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Baden
Baden
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.83
HomeLLWLL0.67
AwayLLDLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%17%25%
AVG goals3.043.172.92
Over 1.5 %88%92%83%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %38%42%33%
Scored0.920.920.92
Conceded2.122.252.00
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.06
HomeDLWLW1.12
AwayDLLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%25%23%
AVG goals3.023.172.88
Over 1.5 %76%88%65%
Over 2.5 %54%67%42%
Over 3.5 %36%33%38%
Scored1.521.541.50
Conceded1.501.621.38
BTTS62%75%50%
Clean Sheet16%12%19%
Corners8.339.008.00
Cards4.334.004.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC SionFC Sion3679
64%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
78%
56%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
30
15692.00.6
-
2FC ThunFC Thun3676
64%
2.1
7338+35
3.1
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4582.01.1
-
3FC VaduzFC Vaduz3649
36%
1.4
6755+12
3.4
81%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
4Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
31%
1.4
5545+10
2.8
86%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.2
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003644
31%
1.2
4852-4
2.8
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.4
-
6FC AarauFC Aarau3643
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.41.6
-
7Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
83%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
8BellinzonaBellinzona3642
31%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
69%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.4
-
9FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3638
22%
1.1
3655-19
2.5
78%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10BadenBaden3626
17%
0.7
3182-51
3.1
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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