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Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 3-1
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Vs
17%
20%
64%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Caerau (Ely) are the clear favourite, with the model rating an 64% chance of victory, 20% for a draw and 17% for a Baglan Dragons win. The prediction reflects Caerau’s stronger away form, scoring 2.7 goals per game and conceding only 1.5 against similar opposition, versus Baglan’s 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded at home. The expected total is 3.7 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-2 for Caerau at 9.2%. The model also forecasts a 3-goal total as most probable, with a 21% chance of that outcome. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Under 7.5 at 96.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Away +2 handicap at 93.1%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.4%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 91.6% with an 8% edge. Baglan’s recent 2-game winning run is eclipsed by Caerau’s recent defeat, reinforcing the model’s preference for an away win.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Caerau (Ely), was expected to win with a 64% probability, but Baglan Dragons pulled off a 3-1 home victory, extending their three-game winning run. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home win. The model’s selections performed mixed: Under 7.5 goals hit at 96.4%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.2%, Away +2 handicap missed at 93.1%, and Away over 0.5 goals hit at 91.6%. The most likely scoreline was 1-2, yet the match finished 3-1, showing the model’s predictions were largely accurate except for the favourite and the handicap.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Baglan Dragons win✓ Hit
16.9%
Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 4.87
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.22
Marathonbet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Draw✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.03
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.14
Bet365
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Caerau (Ely) win✗ Miss
63.6%
Avg Implied 59.0% · @ 1.53
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.57
Dafabet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
William Hil
1.53

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-714L01L00D07L02L11D00D03L10W10WA·TRE17/03A·AMM20/03H·CWM24/03H·CAR28/03A·CAM03/04H·TRE18/04A·TRE31/07H·SWA09/08A·LLA15/08A·NEW21/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.700.772.150.591.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.771.771.002.300.581.33
vs Weaker (8)0.381.500.001.670.601.40
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W50W00D41W20W00D34L11D42W15LH·TRE10/03A·BAG14/03H·CWM21/03A·LLA28/03H·YNY04/04A·PON18/04A·CAR01/08H·YNY07/08A·TRE14/08H·SWA21/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.472.131.472.271.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.691.622.671.832.701.50
vs Weaker (14)1.641.291.781.221.401.40
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%08%117%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
@ 1.17+11.9%
Under 1.5
10.7%
@ 4.00-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.9%
@ 1.63+15.2%
Under 2.5
28.1%
@ 2.13-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.1%
@ 2.53+15.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
@ 1.42-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Superbet
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.0%
@ 1.69+11.6%
No
34.0%
@ 2.01-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
William Hil
1.67
No
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.2%@ 7.75+3.8%
1-1
8.2%@ 7.50+2.6%
1-3
7.6%@ 11.00+3.8%
0-2
7.4%@ 7.62+1.9%
0-3
6.1%@ 10.50+2.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 13.50+2.6%
0-1
5.2%@ 7.38-0.5%
2-3
4.8%@ 19.75+2.6%
Baglan Dragons goals ↓
Caerau (Ely) goals →
01234
03.2%5.2%7.4%6.1%3.8%
12.3%8.2%9.2%7.6%4.7%
21.9%4.6%5.8%4.8%2.9%
30.8%1.9%2.4%2.0%1.2%
40.2%0.6%0.7%0.6%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baglan Dragons goals (down), columns = Caerau (Ely) goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Swansea University
2.60
Pontypridd Town
2.60
Newtown AFC
2.60
Brickfield Rangers
2.50
Bala Town
2.40
Aberystwyth Town
2.40
Mold Alexandra
2.17
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Porthmadog
1.83
Treowen Stars
1.80
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Baglan Dragons
1.67
Ynyshir Albions
1.60
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.40
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.33
Llanuwchllyn
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Afan Lido
1.17
Caerau (Ely)
1.17
Cardiff Draconians
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Ruthin Town
0.67
Buckley Town
0.67
Denbigh Town
0.67
Pontardawe Town
0.60
llanelli AFC
0.33
Penrhyncoch
0.20
Llantwit Major
0.00
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Baglan Dragons is 0.50 points better than Caerau (Ely) in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Swansea University
3.60
Pontypridd Town
3.20
Aberystwyth Town
3.20
Brickfield Rangers
2.83
Newtown AFC
2.80
Treowen Stars
2.60
Carmarthen Town
2.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
2.17
Bala Town
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Guilsfield
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Afan Lido
1.83
Porthmadog
1.83
Denbigh Town
1.83
Rhyl
1.80
Newport City
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.40
Cardiff Draconians
1.25
Buckley Town
1.17
llanelli AFC
1.00
Llanuwchllyn
1.00
Pontardawe Town
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Penrhyncoch
0.60
Caerphilly Athletic
0.60
Llantwit Major
0.25
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Baglan Dragons is 1.33 goals worse than Caerau (Ely) in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Newtown AFC
0.20
Ynyshir Albions
0.60
Brickfield Rangers
0.67
Bala Town
0.80
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Swansea University
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Newport City
1.00
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.33
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Caersws
1.40
Porthmadog
1.50
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.60
Cardiff Draconians
1.75
Treowen Stars
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.83
Buckley Town
1.83
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Afan Lido
2.17
Ruthin Town
2.17
Carmarthen Town
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.33
Gresford Athletic
2.80
Caerau (Ely)
2.83
llanelli AFC
3.00
Llanuwchllyn
3.00
Penrhyncoch
3.20
Llantwit Major
3.50
Baglan Dragons is 2.00 goals better than Caerau (Ely) in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baglan Dragons or Draw✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.26
Edge
-4.3%
17%
20%
64%
covers Baglan Dragons + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Baglan Dragons or Caerau (Ely)✓ Hit
80.5%
Avg Implied 77.6% · @ 1.18
Edge
+2.9%
17%
20%
64%
covers Baglan Dragons + Caerau (Ely)
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Draw or Caerau (Ely)✗ Miss
83.1%
Avg Implied 81.7% · @ 1.12
Edge
+1.4%
17%
20%
64%
covers Draw + Caerau (Ely)
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.2%
@ 1.50+9.7%
Under
28.8%
@ 2.39-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Under
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
1xBet
2.34
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.4%
@ 3.33+8.0%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.25-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Superbet
3.15
Under
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.0%
@ 7.10+0.3%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.04-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.40
1xBet
6.80
Under
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.02
Baglan Dragons over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.6%
@ 1.08+7.8%
Under
8.4%
@ 5.58-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Under
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.25
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
70.8%
@ 1.56+11.8%
Under
29.2%
@ 2.25-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
Superbet
2.22
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
45.1%
@ 2.70+11.3%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.38-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.72
Superbet
2.67
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Caerau (Ely) over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
23.8%
@ 6.10+8.8%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.08-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Under
1xBet
1.08

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Baglan Dragons, so a minus line means Baglan Dragons give that many goals of a start and Caerau (Ely) receive them. At -1, Baglan Dragons must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baglan Dragons win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baglan Dragons)Actual: Draw
Baglan Dragons -2
2.2%
Draw -2
4.7%
Caerau (Ely) +2
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Baglan Dragons)Actual: Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons -1
6.9%
Draw -1
10.0%
Caerau (Ely) +1
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Baglan Dragons)Actual: Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons +1
36.4%
@ 2.27-1.8%
Draw +1
20.7%
@ 3.42-4.8%
Caerau (Ely) -1
43.0%
@ 2.39+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
Draw
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
Away
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Handicap +2 (Baglan Dragons)Actual: Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons +2
57.0%
@ 1.46-3.1%
Draw +2
18.7%
@ 4.40-1.3%
Caerau (Ely) -2
24.3%
@ 4.40+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.46
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
4.40

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D02L01L10W00D02L10W00DA·TRE17/03A·AMM20/03H·CWM24/03H·CAR28/03A·CAM03/04H·TRE18/04A·TRE31/07H·SWA09/08A·LLA15/08A·NEW21/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.620.850.350.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.590.640.800.900.420.42
vs Weaker (8)0.120.750.000.670.200.80
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W00D10W10W00D00D00D22D10WH·TRE10/03A·BAG14/03H·CWM21/03A·LLA28/03H·YNY04/04A·PON18/04A·CAR01/08H·YNY07/08A·TRE14/08H·SWA21/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.570.870.270.730.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.060.441.170.001.000.70
vs Weaker (14)0.500.710.670.440.201.20
Clean sheet %63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.27+4.6%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 3.30-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.7%
@ 2.34+3.8%
Under 1.5
57.3%
@ 1.49-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.30
Under
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.28-2.4%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.11+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
4.80
Under
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.54+0.4%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.43-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Under
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.0%
@ 8.45-3.0%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 11.00-7.4%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.0%
@ 1.57-0.7%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.23+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.5%
@ 3.60-6.9%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.23+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.6%
@ 8.45-4.3%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.04+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L00D00D05L01L01L00D01L00D10WA·TRE17/03A·AMM20/03H·CWM24/03H·CAR28/03A·CAM03/04H·TRE18/04A·TRE31/07H·SWA09/08A·LLA15/08A·NEW21/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.201.030.151.310.240.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.181.140.201.400.170.92
vs Weaker (8)0.250.750.001.000.400.60
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D30W00D31W10W00D34L11D20W05LH·TRE10/03A·BAG14/03H·CWM21/03A·LLA28/03H·YNY04/04A·PON18/04A·CAR01/08H·YNY07/08A·TRE14/08H·SWA21/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.901.271.201.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.621.191.501.831.700.80
vs Weaker (14)1.140.571.110.781.200.20
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.7%
@ 1.16+5.6%
Under 0.5
15.3%
@ 4.38-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.3%
@ 1.85+6.4%
Under 1.5
43.7%
@ 1.84-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.5%
@ 3.48+2.3%
Under 2.5
71.5%
@ 1.23-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Under
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.0%
@ 2.12+3.6%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.62-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.61
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.2%
@ 6.50-2.1%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.08
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
@ 11.00-6.2%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.9%
@ 1.40+0.1%
Under
35.1%
@ 2.58-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
Under
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.7%
@ 2.82+0.5%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.34-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.82
Under
1xBet
1.34
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.8%
@ 6.85-3.8%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.07+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Under
1xBet
1.07

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Home under 2.5 HT goals99.0%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+7.4%-
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.8%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+6.2%-
Under 7.596.4%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals96.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals93.4%1.04
1xBet
1.04
----+4.3%-
Away +2 handicap93.1%-------✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals92.0%1.04
1xBet
1.04
----+3.0%-
Away over 0.5 goals91.6%1.08
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
---+7.8%✓ Hit
Under 6.591.6%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals90.2%1.07
1xBet
1.07
----+3.8%-
Over 1.589.3%1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
--+11.9%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals87.8%1.08
1xBet
1.08
----+2.1%-
Home under 2.5 goals87.0%1.04
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.02
----0.3%✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals85.0%1.11
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-+2.4%-
Over 0.5 2H goals84.7%1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
---+5.6%-
Draw or Away83.1%1.12
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+1.4%✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap83.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.582.7%1.05
1xBet
1.05
-----6.9%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals81.5%1.23
1xBet
1.23
----+6.9%-
Home or Away80.5%1.18
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+2.9%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals76.8%1.27
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+4.6%-
Away under 3.5 goals76.2%1.08
1xBet
1.08
-----8.8%✓ Hit
Over 2.571.9%1.63
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.61
+15.2%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals71.5%1.23
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
----2.3%-
Home over 0.5 goals71.2%1.50
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
--+9.7%✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals70.8%1.56
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
-+11.8%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (12)
€1m
NC (4)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (4)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (6)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
BD wins
0
Draws
5
C( wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HBD Vs Caerau (Ely)0-5
17/09/25ACaerau (Ely) Vs BD2-1
22/08/25ACaerau (Ely) Vs BD1-0
11/01/25HBD Vs Caerau (Ely)2-1
01/11/24ACaerau (Ely) Vs BD2-1
20/01/24HBD Vs Caerau (Ely)2-0
06/10/23ACaerau (Ely) Vs BD3-0

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26ANewport City Vs BD0-1
15/08/26ALlantwit Major Vs BD0-1
09/08/26HBD Vs Swansea University0-3
31/07/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs BD0-0
18/04/26HBD Vs Trethomas Bluebirds1-1
03/04/26ACambrian & Clydach Vs BD2-0
28/03/26HBD Vs Carmarthen Town0-7
24/03/26HBD Vs Cwmbran Celtic0-0
20/03/26AAmmanford AFC Vs BD1-0
17/03/26ATreowen Stars Vs BD4-1

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26HC( Vs Swansea University1-5
14/08/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs C(2-4
07/08/26HC( Vs Ynyshir Albions1-1
01/08/26ACarmarthen Town Vs C(4-3
18/04/26APontypridd Town Vs C(0-0
04/04/26HC( Vs Ynyshir Albions2-0
28/03/26ALlantwit Major Vs C(1-4
21/03/26HC( Vs Cwmbran Celtic0-0
14/03/26ABaglan Dragons Vs C(0-5
10/03/26HC( Vs Treowen Stars3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.04
HomeLDLDL1.17
AwayLLDWW0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%26%22%
AVG goals2.323.041.70
Over 1.5 %66%83%52%
Over 2.5 %38%52%26%
Over 3.5 %16%26%7%
Scored0.921.350.56
Conceded1.401.701.15
BTTS42%57%30%
Clean Sheet28%17%37%
Corners---
Cards---
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWL1.60
HomeWDWDL1.63
AwayWWDLW1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%48%48%
AVG goals3.262.963.61
Over 1.5 %80%78%83%
Over 2.5 %58%52%65%
Over 3.5 %42%30%57%
Scored1.921.632.26
Conceded1.341.331.35
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet32%30%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers615
83%
2.5
174+13
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2Swansea UniversitySwansea University513
80%
2.6
185+13
4.6
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.0
-
3Newtown AFCNewtown AFC513
80%
2.6
141+13
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.2
-
4Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
5Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra613
67%
2.2
126+6
3.0
67%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town512
80%
2.4
165+11
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
7Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC612
67%
2.0
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
8Bala TownBala Town512
80%
2.4
104+6
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
9PorthmadogPorthmadog611
50%
1.8
119+2
3.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
10CaerswsCaersws510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town610
50%
1.7
1514+1
4.8
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.52.3
-
12Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons610
50%
1.7
55+0
1.7
33%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
13Treowen StarsTreowen Stars59
60%
1.8
139+4
4.4
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.8
-
14GuilsfieldGuilsfield69
33%
1.5
129+3
3.5
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
15Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds68
33%
1.3
1211+1
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
16Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions58
40%
1.6
43+1
1.4
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.6
-
17RhylRhyl57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
18Afan LidoAfan Lido67
33%
1.2
1113-2
4.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.2
-
19Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)67
33%
1.2
1317-4
5.0
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.8
-
20Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic57
40%
1.4
37-4
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
21Newport CityNewport City56
40%
1.2
95+4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
22LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn56
40%
1.2
515-10
4.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
23Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur54
20%
0.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
24Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
25Denbigh TownDenbigh Town64
17%
0.7
1114-3
4.2
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
26Buckley TownBuckley Town64
17%
0.7
711-4
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
27Ruthin TownRuthin Town64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
28Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town53
20%
0.6
59-4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
29llanelli AFCllanelli AFC62
0%
0.3
618-12
4.0
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch51
0%
0.2
316-13
3.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
31Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major40
0%
0.0
114-13
3.8
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.5
-
32Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic50
0%
0.0
014-14
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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