Baglan Dragons are poised for a high-scoring outing, with their recent home form showing 1.9 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded against similarly ranked opposition. Cardiff Draconians, on the road, average 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against, suggesting a more balanced but slightly defensive approach. The model projects a 47% chance of a home win, a 25% draw, and a 29% away win, making a Baglan victory the favourite. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to an open match, and the most probable total is three goals, with a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.2% probability. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, carrying an 84% probability. Baglan Dragons’ recent five-match run (LWWWL) shows they are coming off a defeat, while Cardiff Draconians’ five (WLDLW) come off a win. The final score will be 0-0, a draw.
Baglan Dragons’ recent string of three wins and a loss had the team looking sharp at home, yet the match ended in a 0-0 stalemate. The model had tipped a home win with a 47% chance, but the prediction was wrong. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals at 84%, missed as the game produced no goals. The Dragons’ 1.9 average goals per game and 0.9 conceded contrast with Cardiff’s 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded, yet neither side could break the deadlock. The draw was the final outcome, leaving the model’s favourite and its single suggested pick both off the mark.
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.48 | 1.00 | 1.90 | 0.90 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.44 | 1.44 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 14% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Cardiff Draconians goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 11% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 0.52 | 0.90 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś— Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/08/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/08/25 | H | 3-3 | |
| 09/08/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/07/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/03/25 | A | 1-0 |
Cardiff Draconians| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 22/08/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/08/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/08/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/07/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/10/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 | Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 | Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 | Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 | Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |