The contest between Baglan Dragons and Carmarthen Town is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The predicted probabilities are 36% for Baglan, 29% for a draw and 35% for Carmarthen, so the Dragons have a slight edge. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.9% chance. Baglan’s home form shows they score 1.33 goals and concede one on average against similar opposition, while Carmarthen’s away numbers are 2.0 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include an 74.3% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 73.9% chance of Over 1.5 goals. These are the only picks offered. The Dragons’ recent run of LWWWL after a loss to Caerphilly Athletic and Carmarthen’s LDLWW following a defeat to Trethomas Bluebirds add to the uncertainty. In short, a home win is the favourite, the match is expected to see around two to three goals, and a 1-1 draw is the most probable final score.
Baglan Dragons, fresh from a defeat, were still riding a run of four wins, yet the match ended in a 2-2 draw that left the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win at 36%, disappointed. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection Under 3.5, with a 74.3% probability, missed, while its pick Over 1.5, at 73.9%, hit. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the actual result of a draw. Carmarthen Town, also coming off a loss, finished level with Baglan Dragons, leaving the model’s predictions largely off the mark.
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.54 | 1.32 | 1.38 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.55 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 25% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.13 | 1.93 | 0.87 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.81 | 0.95 | 2.20 | 0.60 | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Carmarthen Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 14% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.85 | 0.30 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 0.91 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 54% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.37 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 0.81 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.82 | 0.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+48pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.70 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.88 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.00 | 0.62 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/23 | A | 0-0 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/03/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/02/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/02/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 27/01/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/01/24 | H | 2-0 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/02/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 27/01/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/01/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/01/24 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Holywell | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 79 | 17 | +62 | 3.2 | 90% | 70% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Flint Town United | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 94 | 30 | +64 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Airbus UK | 30 | 74 | 77% | 2.5 | 84 | 28 | +56 | 3.7 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 71 | 77% | 2.4 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 4.2 | 97% | 87% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 67% | 2.1 | 80 | 40 | +40 | 4.0 | 97% | 83% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 3.4 | 77% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 55 | 60% | 1.8 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 3.9 | 90% | 83% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 53 | 57% | 1.8 | 62 | 55 | +7 | 3.9 | 90% | 87% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 47% | 1.7 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 3.2 | 87% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 4.3 | 93% | 87% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 47 | 40% | 1.6 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 13 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 68 | +0 | 4.5 | 97% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Goytre United | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 3.9 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 3.7 | 93% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 69 | 64 | +5 | 4.4 | 97% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 3.7 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.9 | 87% | 57% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 19 | Guilsfield | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 3.1 | 87% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 | Trefelin | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 3.6 | 90% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 21 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Buckley Town | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.8 | 90% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 3.3 | 73% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 4.1 | 90% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Llandudno | 30 | 31 | 33% | 1.0 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 4.6 | 97% | 93% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 27 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 26 | 23% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.8 | 90% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | - |
| 28 | Porthmadog | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 3.4 | 87% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 29 | Abertillery Bluebirds | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 42 | 90 | -48 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 13 | 10% | 0.4 | 32 | 82 | -50 | 3.8 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | - |
| 31 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 9 | 7% | 0.3 | 25 | 106 | -81 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 8 | 7% | 0.3 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |