Baglan Dragons, who have averaged two goals for and 1.36 against at home against similar opposition, are set to host Carmarthen Town, who have scored and conceded 1.88 each on the road. The model sees a 44% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of an away win, with the home win the clear favourite. The expected total is 3.2 goals, and the most likely total is three, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84% probability. Both sides have recently come off defeats, Baglan Dragons losing 0-1 to Caerphilly Athletic and Carmarthen Town losing 2-3 to Trethomas Bluebirds. The Dragons’ home form suggests they will score, while the Saints’ away form indicates they may also find the net. The model’s picks are limited to the Over 1.5 selection at 84%.
The Baglan Dragons’ visit to Carmarthen Town ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock for those who had tipped a home win. The Dragons, fresh from a defeat to Caerphilly Athletic, were still riding a mixed run of LWWWL, while Carmarthen, also coming off a loss to Trethomas Bluebirds, had a recent pattern of LDLWW. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 44% chance, but that call was wrong. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its mark with an 84% probability. The match finished as a stalemate, leaving the predicted outcome on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.93 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.61 | 1.26 | 2.00 | 1.36 | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 1.43 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 1.81 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.81 | 1.31 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 2.12 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Carmarthen Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 11% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.86 | 0.14 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 0.70 | 1.18 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.29 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.81 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/08/23 | A | 0-0 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/03/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/01/25 | H | 6-1 | |
| 17/01/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/01/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/01/25 | A | 0-0 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/02/25 | A | 3-7 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/01/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/01/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |