The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of three, a 22% chance of that exact figure. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% probability, while the overall outcome favours an away win, 47% versus 29% for a home win and 24% for a draw. Baglan Dragons, playing at home against a similarly-rated side, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Carmarthen Town, on the road, average 2.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection list includes an over 1.5-goal pick, with an 86.4% probability. Both teams have recently come off defeats, with Baglan Dragons losing 0-1 to Caerphilly Athletic and Carmarthen Town falling 2-3 to Trethomas Bluebirds. The predicted result, an away win, aligns with the higher probability and the stronger away scoring record.
The Dragons’ recent run of LWWWL had them coming off a narrow defeat, yet the model’s favourite was a Carmarthen Town away win, a prediction that proved correct as the final score read 0-7, a decisive away triumph. The model had given the away side a 47% chance of victory, while the most likely total of 3 goals fell short of the 7-goal reality. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5, with an 86.4% probability, hit. The match delivered a far greater goal tally than expected, confirming the model’s overall accuracy and the strength of Carmarthen’s away form.
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.53 | 1.23 | 1.62 | 0.59 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.80 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Carmarthen Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 10% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 0.55 | 1.12 | 0.62 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.93 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.25 | 0.90 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 0.17 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.19 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/08/23 | A | 0-0 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/01/26 | A | 0-0 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 30/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/01/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/01/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 01/01/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 | Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 | Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 | Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 | Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |