The high-scoring narrative is driven by the Baglan Dragons' and Swansea University's attacking and defensive numbers. The Dragons have averaged 1 goal scored and 1.62 conceded at home, while Swansea University have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded away against similar opponents. This sets the stage for a potentially open match.
Notably, Swansea University are coming off a 2-game winning run, having just defeated Llantwit Major 3-0. In contrast, the Dragons are coming off a draw against Trethomas Bluebirds, a result that has halted their momentum.
The model predicts a 53% chance of an away win, with Swansea University being the favourite. The expected total goals is 3.3, and the most likely score is 1-1 with a 10.7% probability. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals with 84.6% probability.
The probabilities for the match result are 23% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 53% for an away win. The suggested picks include the Over 1.5 goals with 84.6% probability.
The Baglan Dragons' win extends their run of draws, but it was Swansea University who ultimately took the spoils, with the away side sealing a 3-0 victory. The model's selection, an Away win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's call was spot on, as Swansea University's 3-game winning run continued. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 84.6%. The final score of 0-3 was one of the most likely outcomes, with a 9.7% chance.
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.67 | 0.85 | 2.00 | 0.47 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 1.68 | 1.11 | 2.22 | 0.46 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.62 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.83 | 1.12 | 1.94 | 1.29 | 1.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.09 | 1.78 | 1.08 | 1.85 | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Swansea University goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 11% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.85 | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 1.03 | 0.15 | 1.31 | 0.18 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.18 | 1.09 | 0.22 | 1.44 | 0.15 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.23 | 0.56 | 1.12 | 0.57 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.48 | 1.17 | 0.54 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/24 | A | 5-1 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-7 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-0 |
Swansea University| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-6 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/11/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 5-1 | |
| 29/04/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/04/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 07/04/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/03/23 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |