Bala Town is the clear favourite to win this match, with a predicted 72% chance of victory at home. The model rates them highly due to their strong recent form, having won two of their last four games, including a 2-1 win over Ruthin Town. Gresford Athletic, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, conceding an average of 3.1 goals per game against similar opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The model predicts a 24% chance of this scoreline occurring. The most likely score is 2-0 to Bala Town, with a 13.7% probability.
Bala Town has scored an average of 1.29 goals per game at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.57. Gresford Athletic has scored 1.8 goals per game on the road against similar opponents, while conceding 3.1.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.1% probability, and Home win, with a 71.7% probability. The home win percentage is 72%, the draw percentage is 19%, and the away win percentage is 9%.
Bala Town extended their three-game winning streak, beating Gresford Athletic 3-0 and confirming the model’s home win prediction with a 72 % probability. The favourite’s call was correct. The model’s selections all materialised: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.5 %, Under 7.5 hit at 99.1 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 97.5 %, Under 6.5 hit at 97.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 96.9 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 92.8 %. The match produced three goals, matching the most likely score of 2-0 and the expected total of 2.9, while the final 3-0 score reinforced Bala Town’s strong home form and Gresford Athletic’s continued struggles away.
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.53 | 0.88 | 1.44 | 1.21 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.04 | 1.52 | 0.93 | 1.40 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 2.60 | 1.92 | 2.38 | 1.71 | 2.76 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.30 | 2.65 | 1.38 | 2.38 | 1.25 | 2.83 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Gresford Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.52 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.20 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.52 | 0.78 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.83 | 1.23 | 1.54 | 0.71 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 1.85 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 97.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 97.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 92.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 89.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 83.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 81.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Bala Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 3-0 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-5 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |