Bala Town, fresh from a narrow loss to Newtown AFC, are tipped to secure a home win against Mold Alexandra, who are riding a four-game winning streak. The model favours a 1-0 victory for the hosts, a scoreline that carries a 15.2% probability. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 28% chance.
Bala’s home form shows a stark defensive record, conceding an average of two goals against stronger opposition, while they have yet to score at home. Mold Alexandra, playing away, have managed 1.17 goals per game and conceded 2.17 against weaker teams. The probability of a home win stands at 57%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 15%.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.7%), Home +2 handicap (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.5%), and Under 4.5 (92.1%).
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.40 | 0.94 | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.54 | 1.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.78 | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.18 | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Mold Alexandra goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15% | 12% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 13% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 97.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 95.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 84.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Bala Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |