Bala Town’s defensive record at home - conceding 1.4 goals per game - sets the tone for a tight, low-scoring encounter. The model predicts a home win with a 47% chance, a draw 31%, and an away win 22%. The most likely result is a 1-0 victory for Bala Town, a 14.1% probability, while the expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most probable total being two goals (28%). Bala’s average of 1.13 goals scored at home against similar opposition contrasts sharply with Newtown AFC’s 0.0 away goals scored and 3.33 conceded, underscoring the defensive battle. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.2%). Bala Town’s recent three-game winning streak and a 3-0 win over Gresford Athletic add confidence, while Newtown AFC returns from a 1-1 draw against Guilsfield.
The pre-match favourite, a Home win, did not materialise as Bala Town fell 0-1 to Newtown AFC, ending a five-game run that had seen them win four in a row after a loss. The model’s call was wrong, with a 49% probability for a home victory. The actual result was an away win, a 21% chance in the model’s odds. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.4%), and Away under 2.5 goals (95.2%). The match finished with a single goal, confirming the low-scoring nature predicted.
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.43 | 1.06 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.20 | 1.48 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.56 | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 1.72 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.11 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 3.33 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 3.67 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Newtown AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.56 | 0.72 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.33 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.64 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.87 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.83 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 0.89 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 99.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 97.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 95.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 93.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 93.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 82.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home +1 handicap | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/09/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 1-5 | |
| 30/12/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/09/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/05/23 | H | 2-4 | |
| 07/04/23 | H | 1-2 |
Bala Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | H | 0-0 |
Newtown AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 6-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |