Ballinamallard United face a clear favourite in Annagh United, who are tipped to win the match. The model predicts a 45 % chance of an away victory, 28 % for a draw and 27 % for a home win, so the away side is the most likely outcome. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at a 13.4 % probability. Ballinamallard, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded, while Annagh, on the road against a weaker side, have averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.9 %) and Under 5.5 (94.8 %). The home side’s recent form shows a win, loss, win, loss, draw, while the away side’s last five are win, draw, win, loss, win, both ending with victories.
Results analysis
Ballinamallard United entered the match on a shaky run, their last five games showing a LWLWL pattern and a recent defeat to Annagh United. In contrast, Annagh United were riding a two-game winning streak, having beaten Ballinamallard 3-1 in their previous encounter. The model predicted an away win with a 46% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 1-3, confirming the away victory. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9%, and Under 5.5 at 94.7%. All picks settled as hits.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annagh United win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ballinamallard United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.20
1.33
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (24)
1.12
1.58
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.92
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.37
1.88
1.29
1.08
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.57
2.12
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
1.19
1.67
1.11
0.86
1.29
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.3%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
6.7%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.2%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Annagh United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
9.6%
8.3%
4.3%
1.6%
1
6.7%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
4.4%
6.7%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.6%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Annagh United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ballinamallard United is 0.80 points worse than Annagh United in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ballinamallard United is 1.40 goals worse than Annagh United in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ballinamallard United is 0.20 goals better than Annagh United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ballinamallard United or Draw✗ Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
46%
covers Ballinamallard United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United or Annagh United✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
46%
covers Ballinamallard United + Annagh United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Annagh United✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
46%
covers Draw + Annagh United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ballinamallard United, so a minus line means Ballinamallard United give that many goals of a start and Annagh United receive them. At -1, Ballinamallard United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ballinamallard United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ballinamallard United)Actual: Annagh United
Ballinamallard United -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.5%
Annagh United +2
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ballinamallard United)Actual: Annagh United
Ballinamallard United -1
10.7%
Draw -1
15.6%
Annagh United +1
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ballinamallard United)Actual: Annagh United
Ballinamallard United +1
54.2%
Draw +1
22.0%
Annagh United -1
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ballinamallard United)Actual: Draw
Ballinamallard United +2
76.2%
Draw +2
14.2%
Annagh United -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.40
0.53
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.33
0.71
0.33
0.42
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.00
0.35
0.62
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.25
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.9%
Under 0.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.7%
Under 1.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.7%
Under 2.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (24)
0.79
0.88
0.67
0.83
0.92
0.92
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annagh United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.88
0.94
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.93
1.12
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.69
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
Under 0.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.6%
Under 1.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →