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Ballinamallard United vs Ards Prediction & Stats

Date: 03/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Vs
19%
24%
58%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ards are the clear favorites, with a 58% chance of victory, while Ballinamallard United face only an 18% chance of winning and a 24% chance of a draw. The model expects an average of three goals, yet the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.2% chance. Ballinamallard, playing at home against a stronger side, averages one goal scored and 1.38 conceded, whereas Ards, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 2.43 goals scored and only 0.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away +2 handicap (93.4%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.4%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.9%). The home side is coming off a defeat, while Ards are still recovering from two consecutive losses.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballinamallard United win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win
57.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L03L01L60W22D01L21W02L21W13LH·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08A·INS11/08A·MOY15/08H·DUN22/08H·ANN29/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.471.191.441.291.50
vs Stronger (24)1.171.581.001.381.361.82
vs Similar (6)1.501.002.001.671.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W13L10W31W22D31W12L03LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.301.291.361.811.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.181.531.001.251.331.78
vs Weaker (13)2.081.001.671.502.430.57
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.7%
0-1
9.1%
1-3
6.4%
0-3
6.3%
0-0
6.3%
2-1
5.3%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
06.3%9.1%9.7%6.3%3.0%
14.3%11%9.9%6.4%3.1%
22.7%5.3%5.1%3.3%1.6%
30.9%1.8%1.7%1.1%0.5%
40.2%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ballinamallard United is 0.20 points worse than Ards in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ballinamallard United is 0.80 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ballinamallard United is 0.20 goals better than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ballinamallard United or Draw
42.4%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
58%
covers Ballinamallard United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United or Ards
76.1%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
58%
covers Ballinamallard United + Ards
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ards
81.5%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
58%
covers Draw + Ards
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5
Over
85.5%
Under
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 3.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ballinamallard United, so a minus line means Ballinamallard United give that many goals of a start and Ards receive them. At -1, Ballinamallard United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ballinamallard United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.0%
Ards +2
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United -1
6.9%
Draw -1
11.6%
Ards +1
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United +1
42.4%
Draw +1
22.9%
Ards -1
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United +2
65.3%
Draw +2
17.9%
Ards -2
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L01L20W01L00D00D00D11D11DH·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08A·INS11/08A·MOY15/08H·DUN22/08H·ANN29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.440.560.290.79
vs Stronger (24)0.380.670.380.460.360.91
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.671.000.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L10W01L10W10W00D10W11D02LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.500.500.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.590.500.500.560.67
vs Weaker (13)0.920.310.500.501.290.14
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D00D40W21W01L21W02L10W02LH·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08A·INS11/08A·MOY15/08H·DUN22/08H·ANN29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.750.881.000.71
vs Stronger (24)0.790.920.620.921.000.91
vs Similar (6)1.170.331.330.671.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D12L00D21W22D21W01L01LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.790.860.940.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.940.500.750.781.11
vs Weaker (13)1.150.691.171.001.140.43
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.0%-------
Under 6.596.9%-------
Away +2 handicap93.1%-------
Under 5.592.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals91.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals86.9%-------
Away over 0.5 goals85.5%-------
Under 4.582.3%-------
Draw or Away81.5%-------
Away +1 handicap81.5%-------
Over 1.580.4%-------
Home or Away76.1%-------
Home under 1.5 goals72.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
BU wins
2
Draws
4
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard United vs Ards · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2
28/02/26AArds Vs BU2-1
31/10/25HBU Vs Ards1-0
09/08/25AArds Vs BU3-1
25/01/25HBU Vs Ards2-2
07/12/24AArds Vs BU0-1
24/08/24HBU Vs Ards2-2
20/04/24HBU Vs Ards0-5

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HBU Vs Annagh United1-3
22/08/26HBU Vs Dundela2-1
15/08/26AMoyola Park Vs BU2-0
11/08/26AInstitute Vs BU1-2
08/08/26HBU Vs Newry City AFC0-1
25/04/26HBU Vs Dundela2-2
21/04/26HBU Vs Armagh City6-0
18/04/26HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1
11/04/26AInstitute Vs BU3-0
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HARD Vs Queen's University0-3
22/08/26HARD Vs Loughgall1-2
15/08/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD1-3
11/08/26HARD Vs Dundela2-2
08/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs ARD1-3
25/04/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD0-1
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.08
HomeWDLWL1.28
AwayDLLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.662.482.84
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %54%40%68%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.141.241.04
Conceded1.521.241.80
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.34
HomeLWDLL1.33
AwayWLWWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.983.082.88
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %60%71%50%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.521.421.62
Conceded1.461.671.27
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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