Pythia gives Ballinamallard United a 58% win probability against Armagh City in the Northern-Ireland: Championship on 2026-04-21, with 24% for the draw and 18% for Armagh City. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).
Results analysis
Ballinamallard United’s recent form, highlighted by a win against Dundela, set the stage for a strong home performance. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 58 % probability, proved correct as Ballinamallard secured a decisive 6-0 victory, confirming the predicted outcome. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 79.1 %, also hit, reflecting the high-scoring affair. While the most likely scoreline of 2-0 was not achieved, the overall result matched the model’s expectations. The final score of 6-0 underscored Ballinamallard’s dominance, and the model’s predictions largely came through, delivering an accurate forecast for the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Armagh City win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ballinamallard United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.57
0.87
1.47
1.13
1.67
vs Stronger (23)
1.00
1.57
0.83
1.33
1.18
1.82
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.57
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Armagh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
3.00
0.69
2.54
0.71
3.35
vs Stronger (24)
0.79
3.21
0.89
2.56
0.73
3.60
vs Similar (6)
0.33
2.17
0.25
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
Under 2.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
6.7%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.1%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Armagh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.5%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.7%
12%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.3%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.0%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Armagh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Ballinamallard United is 0.50 points better than Armagh City in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Ballinamallard United is 0.37 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Ballinamallard United is 1.37 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 2.95).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.33
0.60
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (23)
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.50
0.36
1.09
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Armagh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.27
0.54
0.85
0.12
1.59
vs Stronger (24)
0.33
1.42
0.67
0.89
0.13
1.73
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.67
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.87
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
0.78
0.50
0.83
0.82
0.73
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Armagh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.73
0.15
1.69
0.59
1.76
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
1.79
0.22
1.67
0.60
1.87
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.50
0.00
1.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (25)
€0m
LOU (33)
€0m
HW (38)
€0m
AC (62)
€0m
WT (32)
€0m
BU (38)
€0m
Ballinamallard United and Armagh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
7 previous meetings
4
BU wins
1
Draws
2
AC wins
Head-to-head
Ballinamallard United vs Armagh City · H/A from BU
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
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Limavady United
Annagh United
H&W Welders
Newington Youth
Institute
Queen's University
Loughgall
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Dundela