Ballinamallard United will travel to face Glenavon FC, and the model designates an away win as the most likely outcome, reflecting Glenavon’s strong away form and Ballinamallard’s struggles at home against tougher opponents. The expected goal total sits at 3.1, yet the single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 11.2% chance, underscoring Glenavon’s defensive solidity and Ballinamallard’s difficulty in converting chances. Home scoring averages 1.0 and conceding 1.25 against stronger sides, while Glenavon averages 2.0 for and 2.0 against when away from home, indicating a clear advantage for the visitors. The match probabilities are 13% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 66% for an away win. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Away +2 handicap (95.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (91.0%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.7%), and Draw or Away (87.1%). Ballinamallard’s recent form shows a win, but Glenavon’s recent draw keeps the visitors in the best position to secure victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ballinamallard United win
11.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win
68.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ballinamallard United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.19
1.44
1.29
1.50
vs Stronger (24)
1.17
1.58
1.00
1.38
1.36
1.82
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.77
1.62
1.56
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.55
1.29
2.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (17)
1.71
1.29
1.75
1.25
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.2%
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
0-1
9.0%
0-3
8.5%
1-3
7.4%
0-0
5.1%
0-4
4.9%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
9.0%
11%
8.5%
4.9%
1
2.9%
9.3%
9.7%
7.4%
4.2%
2
1.6%
3.7%
4.2%
3.2%
1.8%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ballinamallard United is 0.80 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ballinamallard United is 1.80 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ballinamallard United and Glenavon FC are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ballinamallard United or Draw
31.5%
Avg Implied -
12%
20%
68%
covers Ballinamallard United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United or Glenavon FC
80.3%
Avg Implied -
12%
20%
68%
covers Ballinamallard United + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glenavon FC
88.2%
Avg Implied -
12%
20%
68%
covers Draw + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
Under
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5
Over
66.5%
Under
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ballinamallard United, so a minus line means Ballinamallard United give that many goals of a start and Glenavon FC receive them. At -1, Ballinamallard United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ballinamallard United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United -2
0.9%
Draw -2
3.0%
Glenavon FC +2
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United -1
3.9%
Draw -1
7.9%
Glenavon FC +1
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United +1
31.5%
Draw +1
22.4%
Glenavon FC -1
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ballinamallard United)
Ballinamallard United +2
53.9%
Draw +2
20.6%
Glenavon FC -2
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.44
0.56
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (24)
0.38
0.67
0.38
0.46
0.36
0.91
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.75
0.56
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.88
0.62
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.75
0.88
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (24)
0.79
0.92
0.62
0.92
1.00
0.91
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.86
1.43
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.53
0.88
0.62
1.33
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.6%
Under 0.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.3%
Under 1.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.3%
Under 2.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
Ballinamallard United and Glenavon FC have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
Ballinamallard United and Glenavon FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Ballinamallard United and Glenavon FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
Ballinamallard United and Glenavon FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
BU wins
0
Draws
0
GF wins
Head-to-head
Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC · H/A from BU
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Newington Youth
H&W Welders
Queen's University
Annagh United
Loughgall
Newry City AFC
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Moyola Park
Institute
Dundela
Strabane Athletic
Armagh City
Rathfriland