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Ballinamallard United vs Knockbreda Result & Analysis

Date: 03/02/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 6-1
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Vs
70%
19%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Knockbreda
Knockbreda
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda win✗ Miss
10.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L20W22D12L30W01L10W40W13LH·NEW18/11A·INS24/11H·ANN02/12A·ARD09/12H·H&W16/12H·POR23/12A·DER26/12A·ARD13/01H·H&W20/01A·BAL27/01
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.301.801.001.131.60
vs Stronger (30)1.471.301.801.001.131.60
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Knockbreda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L20W14L14L03L14L01L13L14LA·ARD11/11A·ANN18/11H·DER25/11A·H&W02/12A·BAN15/12A·BAL23/12H·INS26/12H·DUN13/01H·NEW20/01H·ANN27/01
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.570.932.360.882.75
vs Stronger (15)0.732.471.002.880.432.00
vs Similar (12)1.172.580.801.601.433.29
vs Weaker (3)0.673.001.002.000.503.50
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.9%
3-0
8.9%
1-0
8.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.2%
0-0
4.8%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Knockbreda goals →
01234
04.8%2.6%1.4%0.4%0.1%
18.7%8.9%3.4%1.0%0.2%
211%9.6%4.0%1.1%0.2%
38.9%7.5%3.2%0.9%0.2%
45.2%4.4%1.9%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Knockbreda goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Portadown
1.87
Institute
1.82
Annagh United
1.79
Bangor
1.79
Dundela
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.61
H&W Welders
1.47
Newington Youth
1.37
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Armagh City
1.00
Ards
0.97
Dergview
0.72
Knockbreda
0.47
Ballinamallard United is 0.87 points better than Knockbreda in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 0.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.03
Dundela
1.95
Portadown
1.95
Ballyclare Comrades
1.92
H&W Welders
1.84
Newington Youth
1.71
Annagh United
1.61
Ards
1.58
Institute
1.58
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Dergview
1.07
Armagh City
1.00
Knockbreda
0.89
Ballinamallard United is 0.45 goals better than Knockbreda in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 0.89).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Armagh City
1.00
Institute
1.13
Bangor
1.16
Annagh United
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Portadown
1.39
Dundela
1.58
Ballyclare Comrades
1.58
H&W Welders
1.66
Newington Youth
1.79
Ards
1.82
Dergview
2.02
Knockbreda
2.63
Ballinamallard United is 1.29 goals better than Knockbreda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 2.63).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D11D02L10W01L00D20W11DH·NEW18/11A·INS24/11H·ANN02/12A·ARD09/12H·H&W16/12H·POR23/12A·DER26/12A·ARD13/01H·H&W20/01A·BAL27/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.600.530.600.60
vs Stronger (30)0.600.570.600.530.600.60
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Knockbreda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D02L01L02L02L12L00D13L13LH·BAL04/11A·ARD11/11A·ANN18/11A·H&W02/12A·BAN15/12A·BAL23/12H·INS26/12H·DUN13/01H·NEW20/01H·ANN27/01
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.200.401.400.401.00
vs Stronger (17)0.351.180.401.600.290.57
vs Similar (10)0.401.300.251.000.501.50
vs Weaker (3)0.671.001.001.000.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W11D10W20W00D10W20W02LH·NEW18/11A·INS24/11H·ANN02/12A·ARD09/12H·H&W16/12H·POR23/12A·DER26/12A·ARD13/01H·H&W20/01A·BAL27/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.200.470.531.00
vs Stronger (30)0.870.731.200.470.531.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Knockbreda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D13L12L01L02L01L00D01LH·BAL04/11A·ARD11/11A·ANN18/11A·H&W02/12A·BAN15/12A·BAL23/12H·INS26/12H·DUN13/01H·NEW20/01H·ANN27/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.370.530.930.271.80
vs Stronger (17)0.471.120.700.900.141.43
vs Similar (10)0.401.600.251.000.502.00
vs Weaker (3)0.002.000.001.000.002.50
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.8%-------✓ Hit
Home win70.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POR (6)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
POR (3)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
5
BU wins
0
Draws
1
KNO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard United vs Knockbreda · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/23AKnockbreda Vs BU1-2
19/08/23HBU Vs Knockbreda3-0
15/04/23HBU Vs Knockbreda4-1
01/04/23AKnockbreda Vs BU3-2
26/11/22HBU Vs Knockbreda2-1
01/10/22AKnockbreda Vs BU1-2

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/01/24ABallyclare Comrades Vs BU3-1
20/01/24HBU Vs H&W Welders4-0
13/01/24AArds Vs BU0-1
26/12/23ADergview Vs BU1-0
23/12/23HBU Vs Portadown3-0
16/12/23HBU Vs H&W Welders1-2
09/12/23AArds Vs BU2-2
02/12/23HBU Vs Annagh United2-0
24/11/23AInstitute Vs BU1-0
18/11/23HBU Vs Newington Youth1-2

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/01/24HKNO Vs Annagh United1-4
20/01/24HKNO Vs Newington Youth1-3
13/01/24HKNO Vs Dundela0-1
26/12/23HKNO Vs Institute1-4
23/12/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs KNO3-0
15/12/23ABangor Vs KNO4-1
02/12/23AH&W Welders Vs KNO4-1
25/11/23HKNO Vs Dergview2-0
18/11/23AAnnagh United Vs KNO2-0
11/11/23AArds Vs KNO1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.34
HomeLWLWW1.68
AwayLDLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals2.822.762.88
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.401.641.16
Conceded1.421.121.72
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Knockbreda
Knockbreda
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.70
HomeWLLLL0.76
AwayDLLLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%16%16%
AVG goals3.483.363.60
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %50%52%48%
Scored1.101.201.00
Conceded2.382.162.60
BTTS66%68%64%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PortadownPortadown3871
58%
1.9
7453+21
3.3
87%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.4
-
2InstituteInstitute3869
53%
1.8
6043+17
2.7
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
3BangorBangor3868
53%
1.8
7744+33
3.2
87%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.01.2
-
4Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3868
53%
1.8
6150+11
2.9
74%
55%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5DundelaDundela3867
55%
1.8
7460+14
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
6Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3861
47%
1.6
7360+13
3.5
89%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
7H&W WeldersH&W Welders3856
45%
1.5
7063+7
3.5
89%
76%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Newington YouthNewington Youth3852
42%
1.4
6568-3
3.5
97%
76%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
9Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3851
39%
1.3
5151+0
2.7
71%
58%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10ArdsArds3837
24%
1.0
6069-9
3.4
84%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
11DergviewDergview4029
15%
0.7
4381-38
3.1
85%
57%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12KnockbredaKnockbreda3818
13%
0.5
34100-66
3.5
95%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
13Armagh CityArmagh City22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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