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Ballinamallard United vs Newry City AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 26/12/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Vs
53%
24%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W12L23L12L41W01L12L10W03L23LH·BAN12/10A·INS19/10A·ARM02/11H·LIM09/11A·BAL16/11A·NEW23/11H·DUN30/11A·ARD07/12H·ANN14/12A·BAN21/12
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.801.561.941.071.64
vs Stronger (28)1.321.711.601.871.001.54
vs Similar (2)1.503.001.003.002.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W13L22D11D03L02L02L03L10W02LH·NEW19/10A·BAL26/10H·H&W02/11H·ARM08/11A·BAN17/11H·DUN22/11H·ANN29/11A·LIM07/12A·ARD14/12H·INS21/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.301.192.190.862.43
vs Stronger (14)0.792.140.862.000.712.29
vs Similar (13)1.152.691.572.860.672.50
vs Weaker (3)1.671.331.000.503.003.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Newry City AFC goals →
01234
05.6%4.4%3.2%1.3%0.4%
17.7%11%6.1%2.4%0.7%
28.3%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.2%6.2%3.7%1.4%0.4%
42.5%2.9%1.7%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Newry City AFC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bangor
2.00
Annagh United
1.87
Limavady United
1.74
H&W Welders
1.74
Queen's University
1.50
Ards
1.37
Dundela
1.37
Institute
1.34
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Armagh City
1.11
Newington Youth
1.11
Ballyclare Comrades
1.07
Newry City AFC
0.82
Ballinamallard United is 0.34 points better than Newry City AFC in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 0.82).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.16
H&W Welders
2.08
Annagh United
1.84
Limavady United
1.76
Armagh City
1.63
Institute
1.63
Dundela
1.53
Queen's University
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.45
Ards
1.45
Ballyclare Comrades
1.35
Newington Youth
1.34
Newry City AFC
1.21
Ballinamallard United is 0.24 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.21).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Annagh United
0.97
Queen's University
1.00
Limavady United
1.16
Bangor
1.21
H&W Welders
1.39
Ards
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.63
Dundela
1.63
Institute
1.66
Newington Youth
1.95
Armagh City
2.05
Newry City AFC
2.05
Ballyclare Comrades
2.20
Ballinamallard United is 0.42 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 2.05).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W11D11D00D02L10W03L12LH·BAN12/10A·INS19/10A·ARM02/11H·LIM09/11A·BAL16/11A·NEW23/11H·DUN30/11A·ARD07/12H·ANN14/12A·BAN21/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.691.060.500.64
vs Stronger (28)0.610.890.731.070.460.69
vs Similar (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L11D10W02L02L02L01L00D00DH·NEW19/10A·BAL26/10H·H&W02/11H·ARM08/11A·BAN17/11H·DUN22/11H·ANN29/11A·LIM07/12A·ARD14/12H·INS21/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.270.621.250.361.29
vs Stronger (14)0.291.290.141.290.431.29
vs Similar (13)0.541.381.001.570.001.17
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L13L01L30W01L10W00D00D11DH·BAN12/10A·INS19/10A·ARM02/11H·LIM09/11A·BAL16/11A·NEW23/11H·DUN30/11A·ARD07/12H·ANN14/12A·BAN21/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.880.880.571.00
vs Stronger (28)0.710.820.870.800.540.85
vs Similar (2)1.002.501.002.001.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D11D01L01L00D00D02L10W02LH·NEW19/10A·BAL26/10H·H&W02/11H·ARM08/11A·BAN17/11H·DUN22/11H·ANN29/11A·LIM07/12A·ARD14/12H·INS21/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.030.560.940.501.14
vs Stronger (14)0.500.860.710.710.291.00
vs Similar (13)0.621.310.571.290.671.33
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BU wins
0
Draws
1
NCA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard United vs Newry City AFC · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/24ANewry City AFC Vs BU1-0

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/12/24ABangor Vs BU3-2
14/12/24HBU Vs Annagh United0-3
07/12/24AArds Vs BU0-1
30/11/24HBU Vs Dundela1-2
23/11/24ANewington Youth Vs BU1-0
16/11/24ABallyclare Comrades Vs BU1-4
09/11/24HBU Vs Limavady United1-2
02/11/24AArmagh City Vs BU3-2
19/10/24AInstitute Vs BU2-1
12/10/24HBU Vs Bangor4-0

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/12/24HNCA Vs Institute0-2
14/12/24AArds Vs NCA0-1
07/12/24ALimavady United Vs NCA3-0
29/11/24HNCA Vs Annagh United0-2
22/11/24HNCA Vs Dundela0-2
17/11/24ABangor Vs NCA3-0
08/11/24HNCA Vs Armagh City1-1
02/11/24HNCA Vs H&W Welders2-2
26/10/24ABallyclare Comrades Vs NCA3-1
19/10/24HNCA Vs Newington Youth3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.30
HomeLWLLL1.42
AwayLWLWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.863.122.58
Over 1.5 %72%85%58%
Over 2.5 %64%73%54%
Over 3.5 %38%42%33%
Scored1.461.691.21
Conceded1.401.421.38
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet30%38%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.54
HomeDDLLL0.56
AwayLLLLW0.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%12%12%
AVG goals3.223.003.44
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored0.840.880.80
Conceded2.382.122.64
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BangorBangor3876
61%
2.0
8246+36
3.4
79%
71%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.2
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3871
58%
1.9
7037+33
2.8
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
53%
1.7
7953+26
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4Limavady UnitedLimavady United3866
47%
1.7
6744+23
2.9
84%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
5ArdsArds3852
37%
1.4
5557-2
2.9
68%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
6DundelaDundela3852
39%
1.4
5862-4
3.2
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7InstituteInstitute3851
34%
1.3
6263-1
3.3
84%
66%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3844
34%
1.2
5562-7
3.1
79%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades4043
30%
1.1
5488-34
3.5
95%
75%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10Armagh CityArmagh City3842
26%
1.1
6278-16
3.7
87%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
11Newington YouthNewington Youth3842
29%
1.1
5174-23
3.3
82%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3831
18%
0.8
4678-32
3.3
87%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
13QueenQueen's University23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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