PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ballinamallard United vs Newry City AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Vs
47%
26%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This match is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Ballinamallard United's recent draw against Dundela a storyline to watch. The home side has been in strong form at home, scoring 4.5 goals on average while conceding just 0.5 per match against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Newry City AFC has struggled away from home, scoring only 0.79 goals on average while conceding 2.43 against stronger opponents.

Ballinamallard United is the favourite to win, with a 47% chance of victory, followed by a 26% draw probability and a 27% chance of an away win. The model predicts a home win as the most likely result. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability.

The model selects Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with an 80% probability. In terms of outright selections, the home win percentage is 47%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 27%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Newry City AFC came from behind to claim a 0-1 victory over Ballinamallard United, extending their run of recent form. The win was a surprise, as it was the second consecutive match that Newry City AFC has beaten Ballinamallard United, with the previous encounter ending 1-0 in their favour. The pre-match favourite, a home win, was incorrectly predicted by the model, which had assigned a 47% probability to this outcome. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, while the other suggested picks, Over 1.5 with a 79.5% probability, missed the mark.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L12L00D11D04L02L03L01L60W22DA·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.601.191.441.211.79
vs Stronger (22)1.051.680.831.421.302.00
vs Similar (8)1.621.382.251.501.001.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L20W11D11D13L30W22D14L23L03LA·H&W22/02H·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03H·DUN14/03A·LIM22/03H·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.031.201.530.802.53
vs Stronger (17)0.882.000.901.800.862.29
vs Similar (7)1.002.572.001.500.603.00
vs Weaker (6)1.331.501.670.671.002.33
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
0-1 ✓
5.6%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Newry City AFC goals →
01234
06.7%5.6%4.1%1.7%0.5%
18.1%12%6.9%2.8%0.9%
27.8%9.5%5.8%2.3%0.7%
34.3%5.3%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.8%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Newry City AFC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Ballinamallard United is 0.60 points worse than Newry City AFC in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Ballinamallard United is 0.40 goals worse than Newry City AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Ballinamallard United is 0.20 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D10W03L02L03L01L20W01LA·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.770.380.560.361.00
vs Stronger (22)0.320.820.250.500.401.20
vs Similar (8)0.500.620.750.750.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L11D01L20W22D01L12L02LA·H&W22/02H·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03H·DUN14/03A·LIM22/03H·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.671.000.270.93
vs Stronger (17)0.291.120.301.300.290.86
vs Similar (7)0.570.861.500.500.201.00
vs Weaker (6)0.830.671.330.330.331.00
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L00D01L01L00D00D00D40W21WA·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.830.810.880.860.79
vs Stronger (22)0.730.860.580.920.900.80
vs Similar (8)1.120.751.500.750.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L20W10W00D12L10W00D13L11D01LA·H&W22/02H·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03H·DUN14/03A·LIM22/03H·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.070.530.530.531.60
vs Stronger (17)0.590.880.600.500.571.43
vs Similar (7)0.431.710.501.000.402.00
vs Weaker (6)0.500.830.330.330.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
BU wins
1
Draws
2
NCA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard United vs Newry City AFC · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/25ANewry City AFC Vs BU3-0
08/03/25HBU Vs Newry City AFC1-1
26/12/24HBU Vs Newry City AFC2-1
27/08/24ANewry City AFC Vs BU1-0

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HBU Vs Dundela2-2
21/04/26HBU Vs Armagh City6-0
18/04/26HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1
11/04/26AInstitute Vs BU3-0
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2
21/03/26ANewington Youth Vs BU4-0
14/03/26HBU Vs H&W Welders1-1
07/03/26AArmagh City Vs BU0-0
28/02/26AArds Vs BU2-1
24/02/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU1-0

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25HNCA Vs Institute0-3
19/04/25ANewington Youth Vs NCA3-2
12/04/25AArmagh City Vs NCA4-1
05/04/25HNCA Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-2
01/04/25HNCA Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
22/03/25ALimavady United Vs NCA3-1
14/03/25HNCA Vs Dundela1-1
08/03/25ABallinamallard United Vs NCA1-1
04/03/25HNCA Vs Ards2-0
22/02/25AH&W Welders Vs NCA4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.10
HomeDLLWD1.38
AwayLLDLL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%21%
AVG goals2.622.462.79
Over 1.5 %68%69%67%
Over 2.5 %50%35%67%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.161.311.00
Conceded1.461.151.79
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL0.72
HomeWDWDL1.00
AwayLDLLL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%24%8%
AVG goals3.323.043.60
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %58%48%68%
Over 3.5 %42%32%52%
Scored1.081.240.92
Conceded2.241.802.68
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches