The match between Ballinamallard United and Queen’s University is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 35%, a draw at 29%, and the visitors at 36%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% chance. Ballinamallard, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.18 goals scored and conceded; Queen’s University, on a two-game winning run away from a weaker opponent, also averages 1.17 for and against. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.8% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.3%. Each selection carries its own probability, separate from the match-result odds. This balanced contest leaves no clear favourite, with the model’s pick of an away win reflecting the narrow edge in the probabilities.
Results analysis
The 1-1 draw stunned fans as the pre-match favourite, Queen’s University, failed to deliver. The model had tipped an away win with a 36% probability, but the result was a dead-heat, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result of a draw. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 74.8% chance, and Under 3.5 goals also hit at 73.3%. Ballinamallard United, coming off a defeat, and Queen’s University, on a two-game winning run, both struggled to break the deadlock. The match settled for a balanced 1-1 scoreline.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's University win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ballinamallard United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.29
1.29
1.19
1.88
vs Stronger (24)
1.12
1.62
1.18
1.18
1.08
2.00
vs Similar (6)
1.67
1.50
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's University
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.21
1.21
1.17
1.17
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.92
1.17
0.50
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
1.50
1.17
1.83
1.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
29% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Queen's University goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
8.5%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.2%
14%
8.3%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.1%
8.1%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Queen's University goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Ballinamallard United is 0.50 points worse than Queen's University in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Ballinamallard United is 0.18 goals worse than Queen's University in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Ballinamallard United is 0.37 goals worse than Queen's University in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.58
0.36
0.36
0.54
0.77
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's University
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.39
0.65
0.45
0.82
0.33
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.55
0.20
0.40
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.75
0.67
1.17
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
48% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ballinamallard United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
0.86
0.86
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
1.04
0.82
0.82
0.54
1.23
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's University
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.74
0.61
0.55
0.45
0.92
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.45
0.60
0.20
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
48% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →