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Ballinamallard United vs Queen's University Result & Analysis

Date: 30/12/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Vs
35%
29%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Queen
Queen's University
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The match between Ballinamallard United and Queen’s University is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 35%, a draw at 29%, and the visitors at 36%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% chance. Ballinamallard, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.18 goals scored and conceded; Queen’s University, on a two-game winning run away from a weaker opponent, also averages 1.17 for and against. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.8% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.3%. Each selection carries its own probability, separate from the match-result odds. This balanced contest leaves no clear favourite, with the model’s pick of an away win reflecting the narrow edge in the probabilities.

Results analysis

The 1-1 draw stunned fans as the pre-match favourite, Queen’s University, failed to deliver. The model had tipped an away win with a 36% probability, but the result was a dead-heat, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result of a draw. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 74.8% chance, and Under 3.5 goals also hit at 73.3%. Ballinamallard United, coming off a defeat, and Queen’s University, on a two-game winning run, both struggled to break the deadlock. The match settled for a balanced 1-1 scoreline.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's University win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W22D30W33D24L22D04L30W10WA·H&W25/10H·ARD31/10A·DUN08/11A·QUE15/11H·NEW21/11A·LIM29/11H·INS06/12H·WAR13/12A·ARM20/12A·ANN26/12
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.601.291.291.191.88
vs Stronger (24)1.121.621.181.181.082.00
vs Similar (6)1.671.501.671.671.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D20W03L11D11D22D02L21W02LA·ARM25/10H·DUN01/11A·ANN08/11H·BAL15/11A·H&W22/11A·WAR29/11H·LIM06/12A·LOU13/12H·INS20/12A·NEW26/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.211.211.171.171.251.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.250.921.170.501.331.33
vs Weaker (12)1.171.501.171.831.171.17
Clean sheet %29% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Queen's University goals →
01234
08.6%8.5%6.4%2.8%0.9%
18.2%14%8.3%3.7%1.2%
26.1%8.1%5.3%2.4%0.8%
32.6%3.5%2.3%1.0%0.3%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Queen's University goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Ballinamallard United is 0.50 points worse than Queen's University in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Ballinamallard United is 0.18 goals worse than Queen's University in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.34).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Ballinamallard United is 0.37 goals worse than Queen's University in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.21).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D11D30W10W02L00D02L00D00DA·H&W25/10H·ARD31/10A·DUN08/11A·QUE15/11H·NEW21/11A·LIM29/11H·INS06/12H·WAR13/12A·ARM20/12A·ANN26/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.430.430.560.69
vs Stronger (24)0.460.580.360.360.540.77
vs Similar (6)0.670.500.670.670.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's University

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D03L10W01L11D00D11D01LA·ARM25/10H·DUN01/11A·ANN08/11H·BAL15/11A·H&W22/11A·WAR29/11H·LIM06/12A·LOU13/12H·INS20/12A·NEW26/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.390.650.450.820.330.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.180.550.200.400.170.67
vs Weaker (12)0.580.750.671.170.500.33
Clean sheet %48% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W11D00D23L22D22D02L30W10WA·H&W25/10H·ARD31/10A·DUN08/11A·QUE15/11H·NEW21/11A·LIM29/11H·INS06/12H·WAR13/12A·ARM20/12A·ANN26/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.030.860.860.621.19
vs Stronger (24)0.671.040.820.820.541.23
vs Similar (6)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's University

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D20W00D01L10W11D02L10W01LA·ARM25/10H·DUN01/11A·ANN08/11H·BAL15/11A·H&W22/11A·WAR29/11H·LIM06/12A·LOU13/12H·INS20/12A·NEW26/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.740.610.550.450.920.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.910.450.600.201.170.67
vs Weaker (12)0.580.750.500.670.670.83
Clean sheet %48% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BU wins
0
Draws
1
QU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard United vs Queen's University · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
15/11/25AQueen's University Vs BU0-3
27/09/25HBU Vs Queen's University0-3

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/25AAnnagh United Vs BU0-1
20/12/25AArmagh City Vs BU0-3
13/12/25HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-4
06/12/25HBU Vs Institute2-2
29/11/25ALimavady United Vs BU4-2
21/11/25HBU Vs Newington Youth3-3
15/11/25AQueen's University Vs BU0-3
08/11/25ADundela Vs BU2-2
31/10/25HBU Vs Ards1-0
25/10/25AH&W Welders Vs BU3-0

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/25ANewington Youth Vs QU2-0
20/12/25HQU Vs Institute2-1
13/12/25ALoughgall Vs QU2-0
06/12/25HQU Vs Limavady United2-2
29/11/25AWarrenpoint Town Vs QU1-1
22/11/25AH&W Welders Vs QU1-1
15/11/25HQU Vs Ballinamallard United0-3
08/11/25AAnnagh United Vs QU0-2
01/11/25HQU Vs Dundela1-1
25/10/25AArmagh City Vs QU0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.20
HomeLWDDL1.62
AwayDWLWW0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%46%23%
AVG goals3.002.883.12
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %66%58%73%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.341.541.15
Conceded1.661.331.96
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Queen
Queen's University
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.42
HomeWDLDW1.42
AwayWDDLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals2.422.332.50
Over 1.5 %83%75%92%
Over 2.5 %42%50%33%
Over 3.5 %17%17%17%
Scored1.211.171.25
Conceded1.211.171.25
BTTS38%42%33%
Clean Sheet29%33%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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