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Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Vs
38%
32%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Ballinamallard United a 38% win probability against Warrenpoint Town in the Northern-Ireland: Championship on 2026-04-18, with 32% for the draw and 30% for Warrenpoint Town. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).

Results analysis

Ballinamallard United finished 0-1 against Warrenpoint Town (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 38% home win, 32% draw and 30% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L00D01L12L00D11D04L02L03LA·DUN14/02A·LOU17/02H·ANN21/02A·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.570.931.471.131.67
vs Stronger (27)0.931.700.791.501.081.92
vs Similar (3)2.000.333.001.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L01L12L24L01L03L00D00D02LH·BAL24/02A·LOU28/02A·ANN03/03H·INS07/03H·NEW10/03H·ANN14/03A·ARD21/03H·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.291.291.121.50
vs Stronger (21)0.861.811.201.700.551.91
vs Similar (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
vs Weaker (6)2.670.331.670.333.670.33
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.4%
Under 1.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.2%
Under 2.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.6%
1-0
11.8%
0-1 ✓
10.1%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
Ballinamallard United goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
01234
013%10%5.8%2.0%0.5%
112%15%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.7%7.8%4.0%1.3%0.3%
33.0%3.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
40.9%0.9%0.4%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballinamallard United goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Ballinamallard United is 0.08 points worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Ballinamallard United is 0.03 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.18).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Ballinamallard United is 0.18 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.39).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (25)
€0m
LOU (33)
€0m
HW (38)
€0m
AC (62)
€0m
WT (32)
€0m
BU (38)
€0m
Ballinamallard United and Warrenpoint Town have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (0)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU1-0
13/12/25HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-4
04/10/25AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU4-1
25/02/23AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU2-1
04/02/23HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town1-1
08/11/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU1-1

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AInstitute Vs BU3-0
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2
21/03/26ANewington Youth Vs BU4-0
14/03/26HBU Vs H&W Welders1-1
07/03/26AArmagh City Vs BU0-0
28/02/26AArds Vs BU2-1
24/02/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU1-0
21/02/26HBU Vs Annagh United0-0
17/02/26ALoughgall Vs BU1-0
14/02/26ADundela Vs BU1-4

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26ADundela Vs WT2-0
04/04/26AInstitute Vs WT0-0
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0
21/03/26AArds Vs WT3-0
14/03/26HWT Vs Annagh United0-1
10/03/26HWT Vs Newington Youth2-4
07/03/26HWT Vs Institute1-2
03/03/26AAnnagh United Vs WT1-0
28/02/26ALoughgall Vs WT1-0
24/02/26HWT Vs Ballinamallard United1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL1.10
HomeLLDDL1.44
AwayLLDLL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.642.442.84
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %52%36%68%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.101.240.96
Conceded1.541.201.88
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL1.24
HomeWLLLD1.58
AwayLLLDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%46%23%
AVG goals2.722.922.54
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.341.581.12
Conceded1.381.331.42
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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