Ballkani arrive at home after a win, while Prishtina e Re are on a five-game losing streak. The model therefore deems a Ballkani victory the most likely outcome, assigning a 67% probability to a home win, 21% to a draw and 12% to an away win. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring match, with the most probable total being two goals (24% chance). The single scoreline the model favours is 2-0 for Ballkani, carrying a 12% probability, and it is the only scoreline to be named. Ballkani’s home form shows they average 2.22 goals scored and 0.56 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Prishtina e Re’s away form reveals a fragile defence, conceding 2.5 goals on average while scoring only 0.5 against stronger teams. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% chance of success. These figures paint a clear picture of a Ballkani win on their home turf.
Results analysis
Ballkani’s win extends their recent run, and the model’s prediction of a home victory proved correct, with a 67% probability. The final score was 3-2, a home win that matched the forecast. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 80.1% probability. All other selections were settled as indicated. The match delivered on the model’s expectations, confirming the favoured result and the accuracy of the chosen market.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ballkani win✓ Hit
66.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ballkani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.10
2.07
0.87
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.57
1.83
1.33
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.69
2.22
0.56
1.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina e Re) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prishtina e Re
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
1.00
1.33
0.73
2.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
2.00
1.12
1.62
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.38
0.86
1.00
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballkani) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
10.3%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
4-0
4.5%
Ballkani goals ↓
Prishtina e Re goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
3.4%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
10%
10%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.5%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.5%
3.7%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballkani goals (down), columns = Prishtina e Re goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.50
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Ferizaj
1.00
Prishtina e Re
0.80
Liria Prizren
0.00
Ballkani is 0.81 points better than Prishtina e Re in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Ferizaj
1.11
Prishtina e Re
1.03
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.00
Liria Prizren
0.00
Ballkani is 0.67 goals better than Prishtina e Re in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Ferizaj
1.53
Prishtina e Re
1.71
Liria Prizren
2.00
Ballkani is 0.58 goals better than Prishtina e Re in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ballkani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.79
1.33
1.00
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.12
0.78
0.00
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina e Re) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prishtina e Re
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.14
0.38
0.88
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.44
0.43
0.29
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballkani) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballkani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballkani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballkani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ballkani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.07
0.47
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
0.50
0.33
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.56
1.44
0.56
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina e Re) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prishtina e Re
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.60
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.94
0.43
0.71
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballkani) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballkani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballkani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballkani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina e Re over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →