PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated matchup between Baltika and Dynamo in the Russia: Premier League on August 1st is finely balanced, with both teams boasting recent form that could sway the outcome. Baltika has been on a 2-game winning run, but Dynamo comes into this match off the back of a win, having defeated Dinamo Makhachkala 3-1.
The model's prediction suggests a 39% chance of Dynamo winning, with a 31% chance of Baltika emerging victorious and a 30% likelihood of a draw. The model's selection is indeed an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. Baltika has been averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1 goal conceded at home, while Dynamo has been averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (91.5%), Under 3.5 (78.1%), Over 3.5 cards (77.1%), and Over 1.5 (70.2%). Baltika has a 31% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 39% chance of losing.
In a stunning upset, Baltika have come from behind to claim a 2-1 win over Dynamo, defying the pre-match favourite. The model's selection, Dynamo's away win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was incorrect as Dynamo failed to secure the win. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with Over 21.5 fouls hitting with a probability of 91.5%, Under 3.5 cards hitting with a probability of 78.1%, and Over 1.5 goals hitting with a probability of 70.2%. The only miss came from Over 3.5 cards, which had a probability of 77.1%.
Baltika| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.64 | 0.64 | 2.14 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Dynamo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.30 | 1.87 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.56 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 2.75 | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 0.78 | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-0pp vs league) | |||||
| Dynamo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 10% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 14% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
BaltikaDynamoBaltika| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.8 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 9.3 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 28.7 | 29.8 | 27.8 |
| vs Similar (10) | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 31.8 | 33.2 | 30.2 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 6.8 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 31.5 | 29.9 | 33.1 |
| % over line | 32% | 33% | 31% | 68% | 65% | 71% | 97% | 100% | 94% |
| % under line | 68% | 67% | 69% | 32% | 35% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
Dynamo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 27.1 | 26.4 | 27.7 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.7 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 30.8 | 29.3 | 32.3 |
| vs Similar (15) | 10.1 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 29.2 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 10.8 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 25.2 | 24.7 | 25.9 |
| % over line | 56% | 48% | 64% | 66% | 64% | 68% | 90% | 92% | 88% |
| % under line | 44% | 52% | 36% | 34% | 36% | 32% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
Baltika| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.79 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+50pp vs league) | |||||
Dynamo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.12 | 0.24 | 1.11 | 0.22 | 1.12 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 78.1% | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | +3.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.0% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.15 | - | - | - | -0.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | +0.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/07/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/05/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 13/08/23 | A | 2-0 |
Baltika| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-0 |
Dynamo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 8.0 | 25% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.0 | 50% | 125 | 64 | 20 | 41 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 60% |
| 2 |  Zenit | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 25% | 10.8 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 25.0 | 50% | 204 | 109 | 44 | 51 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 59% |
| 3 |  Spartak Moscow | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 12.0 | 75% | 4.5 | 75% | 27.2 | 100% | 119 | 58 | 29 | 32 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 62% |
| 4 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 10.0 | 75% | 4.2 | 50% | 24.0 | 50% | 23 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 5 |  CSKA Moscow | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 7.5 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 25.5 | 75% | 137 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 56% |
| 6 | Baltika | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 75% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 25% | 27.0 | 100% | 36 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 46% |
| 7 |  FC Rostov | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 7.8 | 25% | 4.8 | 25% | 26.0 | 75% | 37 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 8 |  Rubin | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | 7.8 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 25.8 | 75% | 53 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 43% |
| 9 |  FC Orenburg | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 8.5 | 25% | 5.0 | 50% | 28.8 | 100% | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 10 | Dynamo | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 8.0 | 25% | 4.0 | 67% | 28.5 | 100% | 111 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 11 |  Rodina Moskva | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 11.8 | 75% | 2.2 | 0% | 27.5 | 75% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | - |
| 12 |  Lokomotiv | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.8 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 8.2 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 27.5 | 75% | 111 | 53 | 18 | 41 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 13 |  Akhmat | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 8.5 | 25% | 3.8 | 50% | 24.0 | 75% | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 14 |  Krylia Sovetov | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 9.0 | 25% | 3.7 | 33% | 27.0 | 75% | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 46% |
| 15 |  Akron | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 9.0 | 25% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.8 | 50% | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |
| 16 |  Fakel | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 75% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | - |