Baltika’s defensive solidity is the story to watch, having conceded just 0.67 goals per game at home against teams of similar strength, while Rubin’s away form shows a worrying 1.5 goals allowed per match. The model projects a tight affair with an expected 2.1 goals, centring on a 1-1 draw that carries a 14.7 % chance. The most likely outcome is a home win, with Baltika’s 39 % chance, a draw at 32 %, and Rubin 29 %. The average goals per side are 1.67 for Baltika and 0.75 for Rubin, confirming the low-scoring tone. The model’s selections favour a quiet match: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Under 5.5 (97.8 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.8 % with a 4 % edge). Additional picks include Under 6.5, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 %) and Home under 3.5 goals.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Baltika, failed to deliver a win, as the game finished 1-1 and ended in a draw. The model had picked a home win with a 39 % probability, but this call was incorrect. The match confirmed the low-scoring nature predicted by the model: the most likely total was 2 goals, and indeed only two were scored. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 %, Under 5.5 at 97.8 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3 %, and Home under 3.5 goals at 96.8 %. Both teams entered the match coming off a draw, with Baltika’s last five results being DDLWL and Rubin’s last five DDDDL.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baltika win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.10
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.11
Dafabet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Draw✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 3.15
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.26
Dafabet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Pinnacle
3.18
Superbet
3.15
Rubin win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.83
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.05
Pinnacle
3.99
Marathonbet
3.95
Dafabet
3.80
Superbet
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Baltika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.41
0.82
1.08
0.85
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
0.80
0.80
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.72
1.64
0.73
1.57
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
1.13
1.07
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.25
0.80
1.20
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.12
1.43
1.00
0.70
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.49+1.7%
Under 1.5
35.5%
@ 2.50-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.58-1.0%
Under 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.53+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.64
Pinnacle
2.61
Marathonbet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.49
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
@ 4.81-2.4%
Under 3.5
83.0%
@ 1.16+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
5.04
Superbet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.2%
@ 2.13+0.7%
No
55.8%
@ 1.64-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
No
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%@ 5.68+7.0%
0-0
13.1%@ 6.19+6.1%
1-0
12.4%@ 5.29+4.2%
0-1
10.0%@ 8.00+4.6%
2-0
8.1%@ 8.33+2.9%
2-1
7.8%@ 9.16+3.1%
1-2
6.5%@ 13.90+3.3%
0-2
5.5%@ 18.42+3.1%
Baltika goals ↓
Rubin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.1%
7.8%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baltika goals (down), columns = Rubin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Baltika is 0.17 points better than Rubin in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Baltika is 0.17 goals better than Rubin in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Baltika is 0.33 goals better than Rubin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Baltika is 10.7 percentage points worse than Rubin in terms of average possession (36% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Baltika
For 3.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rubin
For 4.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Baltika
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.9
8.5
5.1
5.4
4.7
30.3
30.3
30.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.2
10.8
9.7
5.8
5.9
5.7
28.7
29.6
28.0
vs Similar (28)
7.3
6.8
7.9
4.6
5.1
4.1
30.6
30.7
30.4
vs Weaker (8)
7.2
6.5
8.0
5.4
5.8
5.0
33.8
30.0
37.5
% over line
37%
41%
33%
72%
76%
68%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
63%
59%
67%
28%
24%
32%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Rubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.1
8.8
4.4
4.5
4.2
29.1
28.8
29.6
vs Stronger (13)
6.9
7.4
6.4
4.1
3.9
4.3
30.3
30.0
30.6
vs Similar (26)
8.3
7.4
9.2
4.7
5.0
4.4
29.5
29.6
29.3
vs Weaker (11)
10.8
10.4
11.3
3.9
4.3
3.4
26.8
25.6
28.7
% over line
32%
24%
40%
64%
64%
64%
98%
100%
95%
% under line
68%
76%
60%
36%
36%
36%
2%
0%
5%
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
10.8
CSKA Moscow
10.3
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
9.9
Zenit
9.7
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Fakel
9.2
Akron
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
Lokomotiv
9.0
Rubin
8.6
FC Krasnodar
8.5
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.3
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Akhmat
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
Fakel
4.1
Zenit
4.1
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
FC Rostov
28.8
Rubin
28.8
Akhmat
28.7
FC Orenburg
28.6
FC Krasnodar
28.5
Fakel
28.0
Lokomotiv
27.5
Akron
27.5
Dynamo
27.4
Zenit
27.3
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Rodina Moskva
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
36.6%
@ 2.24-4.6%
Under 9.5
63.4%
@ 1.57+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.6%
Under 3.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
91.6%
Under 21.5
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baltika or Draw✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
-4.3%
39%
32%
29%
covers Baltika + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
SBO
1.20
Baltika or Rubin✗ Miss
68.0%
Avg Implied 70.3% · @ 1.34
Edge
-2.3%
39%
32%
29%
covers Baltika + Rubin
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.33
SBO
1.28
Draw or Rubin✓ Hit
60.8%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.75
Edge
+6.7%
39%
32%
29%
covers Draw + Rubin
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
SBO
1.75
Superbet
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baltika over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.1%
@ 1.31-2.3%
Under
30.9%
@ 3.27+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.45
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Baltika over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.8%
@ 2.50-5.0%
Under
67.2%
@ 1.52+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
1xBet
2.43
Under
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Baltika over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 5.85-4.4%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.11+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
Under
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Baltika over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 12.00-4.7%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
1xBet
11.00
Marathonbet
11.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
Rubin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.0%
@ 1.62+4.3%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.22-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Rubin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.2%
@ 4.02+1.9%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.23-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.28
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Rubin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 11.25-0.8%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.25
Superbet
11.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Rubin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 36.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Baltika, so a minus line means Baltika give that many goals of a start and Rubin receive them. At -1, Baltika must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baltika win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baltika)Actual: Rubin
Baltika -2
5.7%
@ 8.60-4.7%
Draw -2
11.6%
@ 5.83-3.6%
Rubin +2
82.7%
@ 1.20+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.70
Away
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Baltika)Actual: Rubin
Baltika -1
17.3%
@ 3.95-5.5%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.52-3.7%
Rubin +1
60.8%
@ 1.75+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Draw
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.72
Handicap +1 (Baltika)Actual: Baltika
Baltika +1
71.3%
@ 1.26+0.1%
Draw +1
17.8%
@ 4.97-0.3%
Rubin -1
10.9%
@ 8.40+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Superbet
4.90
Away
Marathonbet
8.70
Superbet
8.10
Handicap +2 (Baltika)Actual: Baltika
Baltika +2
89.1%
Draw +2
7.9%
Rubin -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Baltika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.53
0.41
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.28
0.64
0.36
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.47
0.40
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.47
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.5%
@ 1.56+5.8%
Under 0.5
33.5%
@ 2.40-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.0%
@ 3.47+2.0%
Under 1.5
71.0%
@ 1.28-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.54
1xBet
3.54
Superbet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.3%
@ 9.10-0.8%
Under 2.5
90.7%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.30
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Under
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baltika over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.1%
@ 2.12+5.0%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.67-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Baltika over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 6.83+0.3%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Superbet
6.60
Under
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Baltika over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 23.00-97.3%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Rubin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.2%
@ 2.83+2.3%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.39-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.84
Superbet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Rubin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 11.00-0.5%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.02+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
1xBet
11.50
Superbet
10.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Rubin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 50.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Baltika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.88
0.41
0.46
0.54
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.36
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
1.00
0.43
0.10
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.36+8.0%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 3.03-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Under
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.7%
@ 2.65+4.3%
Under 1.5
60.3%
@ 1.45-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Superbet
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 6.23+0.7%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.09-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Under
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baltika over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.5%
@ 1.79+6.8%
Under
41.5%
@ 1.92-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Under
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Baltika over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.9%
@ 5.00+1.3%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.14-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Baltika over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 16.00-1.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Rubin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.6%
@ 2.33+1.9%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.53-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Rubin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 8.13-0.4%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.04+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.80
Under
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Rubin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 30.00-98.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.4%
1.02
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.02
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.04
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
83.6%
1.17
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
83.0%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.7%
1.20
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.8%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
-
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.7%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
72.0%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.3%
1.25
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
SBO
1.20
-
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Baltika
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brayan Gil40%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor33%
Eldar Ćivić25%
Aymane Mourid20%
Andrey Mendel17%
Nikolay Titkov17%
Maksim Petrov17%
Sergey Varatynov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aymane Mourid60%
Mingiyan Beveev33%
Eduardo Anderson33%
Andrey Mendel33%
Nikolay Titkov33%
Maksim Petrov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor0%
Brayan Gil0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Sergey Varatynov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Gassama33%
Aymane Mourid20%
Nikolay Titkov17%
Maksim Petrov17%
Sergey Varatynov17%
Vladislav Pospelov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Andrey Mendel0%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor0%
Brayan Gil0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor50%
Aymane Mourid20%
Maksim Petrov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Andrey Mendel0%
Brayan Gil0%
Nikolay Titkov0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Sergey Varatynov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
Rubin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacques Siwe40%
Bogdan Jočić33%
Aleksandar Jukić25%
Ilya Rozhkov20%
Anderson Arroyo17%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Ignacio Saavedra0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Ilya Samoshnikov0%
Igor Vujačić0%
Ugochukwu Iwu0%
Evgeniy Staver0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Jukić50%
Veldin Hodža33%
Igor Vujačić20%
Ilya Rozhkov20%
Ignacio Saavedra17%
Anderson Arroyo17%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Ilya Samoshnikov0%
Ugochukwu Iwu0%
Evgeniy Staver0%
Bogdan Jočić0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Jacques Siwe0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilya Samoshnikov25%
Ilya Rozhkov20%
Ignacio Saavedra17%
Evgeniy Staver17%
Anderson Arroyo17%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Aleksandar Jukić0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Igor Vujačić0%
Ugochukwu Iwu0%
Bogdan Jočić0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Jacques Siwe0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ugochukwu Iwu33%
Aleksandar Jukić25%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Ignacio Saavedra0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Ilya Samoshnikov0%
Igor Vujačić0%
Evgeniy Staver0%
Anderson Arroyo0%
Bogdan Jočić0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Jacques Siwe0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Ilya Rozhkov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Baltika's squad is €15m less valuable than Rubin's (€30m vs €45m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Baltika's attack is €2m more valuable than Rubin's (€10m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Baltika's midfield is €6m less valuable than Rubin's (€6m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Baltika's defence is €11m less valuable than Rubin's (€15m vs €25m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Dynamo
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel