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Balzan FC vs Hibernians Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Vs
15%
24%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with Hibernians expected to triumph 61% of the time, while a draw sits at 24% and a home victory at 15%. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderate-scoring encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Hibernians, a 11.9% chance. Balzan’s home form shows a modest 0.91 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Hibernians’ away record boasts 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 75.6% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.1%. In the last five matches Balzan came off a win, and Hibernians a draw, suggesting both sides are in decent rhythm. The predicted outcome is an Hibernians victory, with the match likely to end 0-2.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Hibernians, did not deliver, as the game finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Balzan FC, fresh from a win, and Hibernians, coming off a draw, both had recent form that suggested a competitive match, yet neither side could break the deadlock. The model had predicted an away win with a 61% probability, but the result was a stalemate. The Over 1.5 selection, with a 75.6% chance, missed, while the Under 3.5 pick, at 72.1%, hit. The most likely scoreline of 0-2, 0-1 or 1-1 each had about a 12% chance, none of which materialised.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Balzan FC win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win✗ Miss
60.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D30W01L00D20W00D17L11D01L22DA·GUD25/11H·SIR02/12A·SLI09/12H·VAL16/12A·MOS07/01H·MAR21/01H·HAM27/01A·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.470.881.811.571.07
vs Stronger (9)0.672.330.803.000.501.50
vs Similar (20)1.401.050.911.272.000.78
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L20W00D11D12L32W20W02L11DA·SIR25/11H·SLI03/12A·VAL09/12H·MOS17/12A·MAR07/01H·HAM20/01H·GZI28/01A·SAN04/02H·FLO10/02A·BIR17/02
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.301.201.471.801.13
vs Stronger (6)1.001.670.331.671.671.67
vs Similar (21)1.521.331.451.551.601.10
vs Weaker (3)2.330.331.000.003.000.50
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.9%
0-1
11.8%
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-0 ✓
8.0%
0-3
7.4%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
4.6%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
01234
08.0%12%12%7.4%3.4%
14.6%12%9.7%6.0%2.8%
22.3%4.3%4.0%2.4%1.1%
30.6%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.3%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Balzan FC is 0.04 points worse than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.35).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Balzan FC is 0.12 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Balzan FC and Hibernians are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W01L00D00D00D12L01L00D12LA·GUD25/11H·SIR02/12A·SLI09/12H·VAL16/12A·MOS07/01H·MAR21/01H·HAM27/01A·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.560.810.430.36
vs Stronger (9)0.560.890.801.000.250.75
vs Similar (20)0.500.500.450.730.560.22
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W00D01L01L22D20W01L00DA·SIR25/11H·SLI03/12A·VAL09/12H·MOS17/12A·MAR07/01H·HAM20/01H·GZI28/01A·SAN04/02H·FLO10/02A·BIR17/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.470.530.930.60
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.000.670.670.67
vs Similar (21)0.760.620.640.550.900.70
vs Weaker (3)1.000.000.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D10W00D00D20W00D05L10W01L10WA·GUD25/11H·SIR02/12A·SLI09/12H·VAL16/12A·MOS07/01H·MAR21/01H·HAM27/01A·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.870.311.001.140.71
vs Stronger (9)0.111.440.002.000.250.75
vs Similar (20)0.900.550.450.551.440.56
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L10W00D10W11D10W00D01L11DA·SIR25/11H·SLI03/12A·VAL09/12H·MOS17/12A·MAR07/01H·HAM20/01H·GZI28/01A·SAN04/02H·FLO10/02A·BIR17/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.730.730.930.870.53
vs Stronger (6)0.671.000.331.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.760.710.821.000.700.40
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Balzan FC's squad is €4m less valuable than Hibernians's (€2m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Balzan FC's attack is €1m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Balzan FC and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Balzan FC's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
BF wins
1
Draws
1
HIB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Balzan FC vs Hibernians · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/23AHibernians Vs BF0-2
01/05/23AHibernians Vs BF2-2
05/02/23AHibernians Vs BF1-2
02/10/22HBF Vs Hibernians0-2

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/24AFloriana Vs BF2-2
10/02/24HBF Vs Santa Lucía0-1
04/02/24AGzira United Vs BF1-1
27/01/24HBF Vs Hamrun Spartans1-7
21/01/24HBF Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
07/01/24AMosta Vs BF0-2
16/12/23HBF Vs Valletta FC0-0
09/12/23ASliema Wanderers Vs BF1-0
02/12/23HBF Vs Sirens3-0
25/11/23AGudja United Vs BF2-2

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24ABirkirkara Vs HIB1-1
10/02/24HHIB Vs Floriana0-2
04/02/24ASanta Lucía Vs HIB0-2
28/01/24HHIB Vs Gzira United3-2
20/01/24HHIB Vs Hamrun Spartans1-2
07/01/24AMarsaxlokk Vs HIB1-1
17/12/23HHIB Vs Mosta0-0
09/12/23AValletta FC Vs HIB0-2
03/12/23HHIB Vs Sliema Wanderers0-1
25/11/23ASirens Vs HIB1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLD1.48
HomeWDDLL1.08
AwayDLWDD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%29%54%
AVG goals2.542.542.54
Over 1.5 %67%67%67%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %31%29%33%
Scored1.230.921.54
Conceded1.311.621.00
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet31%29%33%
Corners15.0015.5014.00
Cards6.677.505.00
Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.56
HomeLDLWL1.35
AwayWWDWD1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals2.782.732.83
Over 1.5 %80%73%88%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.461.191.75
Conceded1.321.541.08
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Corners6.836.337.33
Cards5.506.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
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0%
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0%
0
0000.52.6
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Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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