PythiaFootballBETA
Bangor City 1876 FC are poised to dominate at home, with a 43% chance of victory, a 21% chance of a draw and a 36% chance of a Buckley Town win, making a home win the model’s pick. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 4.3 goals and a 26% probability that the total will reach six or more. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2, with a 7.2% chance, reflecting the balanced attacking output from both sides. Bangor’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Buckley’s away form averages 1.93 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 93.4%, Over 2.5 at 80.3%, and BTTS Yes at 78.6%. The recent form narrative notes both teams come off defeats, with Bangor losing 1-2 to Mold Alexandra and Buckley losing 0-2 to Caersws.
Bangor City 1876 FC extended their winning run, beating Buckley Town 3-0 at home. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, and the predicted probability of 43% matched the outcome. The team’s recent form - four wins from five after a defeat - helped secure the result, while Buckley Town struggled, losing their last match 0-2. The model’s selections performed well: Over 1.5 goals hit at 93.4%, Over 2.5 hit at 80.3%, but BTTS Yes missed despite a 78.6% chance. The predicted total of 6+ goals was not reached, yet the overall forecast was largely accurate.
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.33 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 2.20 | 2.17 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 2.44 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.09 | 2.13 | 2.33 | 1.56 | 1.93 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.43 | 2.43 | 1.67 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Buckley Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.93 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.83 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.83 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.27 | 1.42 | 0.75 | 0.83 | 1.61 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.79 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/10/23 | H | 1-4 | |
| 29/09/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 23/09/23 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/09/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/23 | H | 1-4 | |
| 19/08/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 12/08/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/23 | A | 2-4 | |
| 29/07/23 | H | 6-0 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/10/23 | A | 2-3 | |
| 07/10/23 | A | 4-2 | |
| 04/10/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 30/09/23 | H | 0-3 | |
| 22/09/23 | A | 6-5 | |
| 09/09/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/08/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/08/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/08/23 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Holywell | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 79 | 17 | +62 | 3.2 | 90% | 70% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 |  Flint Town United | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 94 | 30 | +64 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 |  Airbus UK | 30 | 74 | 77% | 2.5 | 84 | 28 | +56 | 3.7 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 |  Briton Ferry | 30 | 71 | 77% | 2.4 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 4.2 | 97% | 87% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 |  llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 67% | 2.1 | 80 | 40 | +40 | 4.0 | 97% | 83% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Ammanford AFC | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 3.4 | 77% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 |  Mold Alexandra | 30 | 55 | 60% | 1.8 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 3.9 | 90% | 83% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 53 | 57% | 1.8 | 62 | 55 | +7 | 3.9 | 90% | 87% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 47% | 1.7 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 3.2 | 87% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 |  Denbigh Town | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 4.3 | 93% | 87% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 |  Carmarthen Town | 30 | 47 | 40% | 1.6 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 |  Afan Lido | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 13 |  Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 68 | +0 | 4.5 | 97% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 |  Goytre United | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 3.9 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 |  Ruthin Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 3.7 | 93% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 |  Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 69 | 64 | +5 | 4.4 | 97% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 17 |  Caersws | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 3.7 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 |  Baglan Dragons | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.9 | 87% | 57% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 19 |  Guilsfield | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 3.1 | 87% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 |  Trefelin | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 3.6 | 90% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 21 |  Gresford Athletic | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Buckley Town | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.8 | 90% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 |  Llantwit Major | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 3.3 | 73% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 |  Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 25 |  Pontardawe Town | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 4.1 | 90% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 |  Llandudno | 30 | 31 | 33% | 1.0 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 4.6 | 97% | 93% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 27 |  Prestatyn Town | 30 | 26 | 23% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.8 | 90% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | - |
| 28 |  Porthmadog | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 3.4 | 87% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 29 |  Abertillery Bluebirds | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 42 | 90 | -48 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 |  Chirk AAA | 30 | 13 | 10% | 0.4 | 32 | 82 | -50 | 3.8 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | - |
| 31 |  Llanidloes Town | 30 | 9 | 7% | 0.3 | 25 | 106 | -81 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 |  Abergavenny Town | 30 | 8 | 7% | 0.3 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |