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Bangor City 1876 FC vs Caerau (Ely) Result & Analysis

Date: 31/01/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 3-1
Bangor City 1876 FC
Bangor City 1876 FC
Vs
38%
25%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
Wales: Welsh Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Bangor City 1876 FC, riding a three-game winning streak, will host Caerau (Ely) in a Welsh Cup tie that the model predicts a home win. The expected goal tally sits at 3.4, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.6% chance, although the model favours a 1-2 result for Caerau (8.3%) and a 2-1 win for Bangor (8.3%). Bangor’s home form shows 1.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Caerau’s away form is more lethal, averaging 2.62 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 38% home win, 25% draw, and 37% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.4%), Under 5.5 (86.9%), Over 1.5 (86.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (82.1%), and Away over 0.5 goals (81.5%).

Results analysis

Bangor City 1876 FC extended their three-game winning streak with a 3-1 triumph over Caerau (Ely), confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The Pythia forecast listed Bangor City as the favourite with a 38% chance, and the result matched that call. The match also delivered on the model’s heavy-weight selections: Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Away under 3.5 goals, Home under 3.5 goals, Under 5.5, Over 1.5, Home over 0.5 goals and Away over 0.5 goals all hit, reflecting the 97.7%, 94.2%, 90.8%, 90.4%, 86.9%, 86.4%, 82.1% and 81.5% probabilities respectively. With Bangor City’s form on a winning run and Caerau’s recent defeat, the final score of 3-1 was a fitting confirmation of the model’s comprehensive predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bangor City 1876 FC win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-623L02L12L16L12L01L60W11D21W20WH·LLA01/03H·BUC07/03A·DEN22/03A·MOL29/03H·CAE05/04A·RUT12/04A·ST 20/09H·GUI18/10H·HOL22/11H·TRE13/12
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.532.031.881.881.142.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.302.001.901.600.702.40
vs Weaker (10)2.002.101.832.332.251.75
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L20W11D21W10W03L21W11D12L51WH·CAM07/11A·DOL22/11A·CAR28/11H·LLA13/12H·ABE20/12A·TRE26/12H·CAR02/01A·NEW09/01H·TRE16/01A·TRE23/01
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.131.561.062.211.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.940.651.330.562.620.75
vs Weaker (13)1.771.771.861.711.671.83
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor City 1876 FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
4.9%
3-1 ✓
4.7%
0-2
4.7%
1-0
4.7%
Bangor City 1876 FC goals ↓
Caerau (Ely) goals →
01234
04.3%4.6%4.7%2.7%1.1%
14.7%11%8.1%4.6%1.9%
24.9%8.3%7.0%3.9%1.7%
32.8%4.7%4.0%2.3%1.0%
41.2%2.0%1.7%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bangor City 1876 FC goals (down), columns = Caerau (Ely) goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
3.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
llanelli AFC
2.40
Trearddur Bay
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.25
Airbus UK
2.25
Caersws
2.25
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Trefelin
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Llantwit Major
2.00
Flint Town United
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Swansea University
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.75
Morriston Town
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Cardiff MET
1.50
Briton Ferry
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Kinmel Bay
1.50
Llanefydd
1.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.50
Gresford Athletic
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.25
Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Caerphilly Athletic
1.00
Barry Town
1.00
Caernarfon Town
1.00
Treowen Stars
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Newtown AFC
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Evans & Williams
1.00
Cefn Cribwr
1.00
Saltney Town
1.00
Goytre United
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
CPD Sychdyn United
1.00
Berriew
1.00
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.00
Llanfair United
1.00
Glynneath Town
1.00
Dinas Powys
1.00
Llanrug United
1.00
Blaenavon Blues
1.00
Port Talbot Town
1.00
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.00
Pwllheli
1.00
Abercarn United
1.00
Rhostyllen
1.00
Forden United
1.00
Broughton United FC
1.00
Dolgellau Athletic
1.00
Hawarden Rangers
1.00
Penygraig United FC
1.00
Bow Street
1.00
Welshpool Town
1.00
Pontyclun
1.00
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.00
Garden Village
1.00
Canton Liberal
1.00
Rhayader Town
1.00
Nefyn United
1.00
Tredegar Town
1.00
Lliswerry
1.00
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.00
Afan United
1.00
Tata Steel
1.00
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.67
Rhyl
0.50
Ruthin Town
0.50
Guilsfield
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Brickfield Rangers
0.00
Baglan Dragons
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Queens Park
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Cwmbran Town
0.00
NFA
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Caldicot Town
0.00
Cwmbran Celtic
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Bangor City 1876 FC is 0.25 points worse than Caerau (Ely) in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
5.83
Gresford Athletic
5.00
Buckley Town
4.50
Flint Town United
3.50
Denbigh Town
3.50
Caersws
3.50
Trefelin
3.33
Llandudno
3.33
Caerau (Ely)
3.00
Barry Town
3.00
Porthmadog
3.00
Kinmel Bay
3.00
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Celtic
3.00
Airbus UK
2.75
Rhyl
2.50
Swansea University
2.33
Penydarren BGC
2.33
llanelli AFC
2.20
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.17
Briton Ferry
2.00
Carmarthen Town
1.75
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Bala Town
1.67
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Ynyshir Albions
1.46
Caerphilly Athletic
1.46
Treowen Stars
1.46
Evans & Williams
1.46
Cefn Cribwr
1.46
Saltney Town
1.46
CPD Sychdyn United
1.46
Berriew
1.46
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.46
Llanfair United
1.46
Glynneath Town
1.46
Dinas Powys
1.46
Llanrug United
1.46
Blaenavon Blues
1.46
Port Talbot Town
1.46
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.46
Pwllheli
1.46
Abercarn United
1.46
Rhostyllen
1.46
Forden United
1.46
Broughton United FC
1.46
Dolgellau Athletic
1.46
Hawarden Rangers
1.46
Penygraig United FC
1.46
Bow Street
1.46
Welshpool Town
1.46
Pontyclun
1.46
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.46
Garden Village
1.46
Canton Liberal
1.46
Rhayader Town
1.46
Nefyn United
1.46
Tredegar Town
1.46
Lliswerry
1.46
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.46
Afan United
1.46
Tata Steel
1.46
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.46
Afan Lido
1.33
Pill AFC
1.33
Trearddur Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Cardiff MET
1.00
Ammanford AFC
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
1.00
Brickfield Rangers
1.00
Baglan Dragons
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Morriston Town
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Cwmbran Town
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
NFA
1.00
Caldicot Town
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Guilsfield
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Bangor City 1876 FC is 1.50 goals worse than Caerau (Ely) in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 3.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.00
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
llanelli AFC
0.40
Ammanford AFC
0.50
The New Saints
0.50
Cardiff Draconians
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Morriston Town
0.67
Trearddur Bay
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.00
Briton Ferry
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Llantwit Major
1.00
Denbigh Town
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Taffs Well
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
Llwydcoed
1.00
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Swansea University
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.50
Caerau (Ely)
1.50
Flint Town United
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Airbus UK
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Ruthin Town
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Trefelin
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Caersws
1.75
Newport City
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Carmarthen Town
2.00
Penrhyncoch
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Pontypridd Town
2.00
St Asaph City
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
NFA
2.00
Caldicot Town
2.00
Ynyshir Albions
2.17
Caerphilly Athletic
2.17
Treowen Stars
2.17
Evans & Williams
2.17
Cefn Cribwr
2.17
Saltney Town
2.17
CPD Sychdyn United
2.17
Berriew
2.17
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
2.17
Llanfair United
2.17
Glynneath Town
2.17
Dinas Powys
2.17
Llanrug United
2.17
Blaenavon Blues
2.17
Port Talbot Town
2.17
Pentwynmawr Athletic
2.17
Pwllheli
2.17
Abercarn United
2.17
Rhostyllen
2.17
Forden United
2.17
Broughton United FC
2.17
Dolgellau Athletic
2.17
Hawarden Rangers
2.17
Penygraig United FC
2.17
Bow Street
2.17
Welshpool Town
2.17
Pontyclun
2.17
Cwm Welfare AFC
2.17
Garden Village
2.17
Canton Liberal
2.17
Rhayader Town
2.17
Nefyn United
2.17
Tredegar Town
2.17
Lliswerry
2.17
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
2.17
Afan United
2.17
Tata Steel
2.17
Cwmbach Royal Stars
2.17
Colwyn Bay
2.33
Kinmel Bay
2.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
2.50
Gresford Athletic
2.50
Barry Town
3.00
Brickfield Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Town
3.00
Rhyl
4.00
Llanberis
4.00
Cwmbran Celtic
4.00
Guilsfield
5.00
Baglan Dragons
5.00
Cefn Albion
5.00
Queens Park
6.00
Bangor City 1876 FC and Caerau (Ely) are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bangor City 1876 FC or Draw✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
37%
covers Bangor City 1876 FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC or Caerau (Ely)✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
37%
covers Bangor City 1876 FC + Caerau (Ely)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Caerau (Ely)✗ Miss
61.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
37%
covers Draw + Caerau (Ely)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Bangor City 1876 FC, so a minus line means Bangor City 1876 FC give that many goals of a start and Caerau (Ely) receive them. At -1, Bangor City 1876 FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bangor City 1876 FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bangor City 1876 FC)Actual: Draw
Bangor City 1876 FC -2
8.5%
Draw -2
11.7%
Caerau (Ely) +2
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bangor City 1876 FC)Actual: Bangor City 1876 FC
Bangor City 1876 FC -1
20.2%
Draw -1
18.1%
Caerau (Ely) +1
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bangor City 1876 FC)Actual: Bangor City 1876 FC
Bangor City 1876 FC +1
62.9%
Draw +1
17.8%
Caerau (Ely) -1
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bangor City 1876 FC)Actual: Bangor City 1876 FC
Bangor City 1876 FC +2
80.6%
Draw +2
11.3%
Caerau (Ely) -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D01L00D05L01L00D50W00D01L00DH·LLA01/03H·BUC07/03A·DEN22/03A·MOL29/03H·CAE05/04A·RUT12/04A·ST 20/09H·GUI18/10H·HOL22/11H·TRE13/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.930.880.810.501.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.500.900.800.600.201.20
vs Weaker (10)1.101.001.001.171.250.75
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W01L00D00D02L10W01L02L21WH·CAM07/11A·DOL22/11A·CAR28/11H·LLA13/12H·ABE20/12A·TRE26/12H·CAR02/01A·NEW09/01H·TRE16/01A·TRE23/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.430.620.190.930.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.760.240.440.001.120.50
vs Weaker (13)0.770.690.860.430.671.00
Clean sheet %67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor City 1876 FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L12L11D11D01L10W11D20W20WH·LLA01/03H·BUC07/03A·DEN22/03A·MOL29/03H·CAE05/04A·RUT12/04A·ST 20/09H·GUI18/10H·HOL22/11H·TRE13/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.101.001.060.641.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.801.101.101.000.501.20
vs Weaker (10)0.901.100.831.171.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D10W21W10W01L11D10W10W30WH·CAM07/11A·DOL22/11A·CAR28/11H·LLA13/12H·ABE20/12A·TRE26/12H·CAR02/01A·NEW09/01H·TRE16/01A·TRE23/01
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.700.940.881.290.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.180.410.890.561.500.25
vs Weaker (13)1.001.081.001.291.000.83
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor City 1876 FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor City 1876 FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.597.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.594.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals90.8%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals90.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.586.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.586.4%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals82.1%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals81.5%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap80.6%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap79.8%-------✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals76.0%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away75.5%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals75.2%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.574.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
QP (28)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QP (14)
€2m
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
QP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QP (12)
€1m
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BC1 wins
0
Draws
0
C( wins

Head-to-head

Bangor City 1876 FC vs Caerau (Ely) · H/A from BC1
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/25HBC1 Vs Trefelin2-0
22/11/25HBC1 Vs Holywell2-1
18/10/25HBC1 Vs Guilsfield1-1
20/09/25ASt Asaph City Vs BC10-6
12/04/25ARuthin Town Vs BC11-0
05/04/25HBC1 Vs Caersws1-2
29/03/25AMold Alexandra Vs BC16-1
22/03/25ADenbigh Town Vs BC12-1
07/03/25HBC1 Vs Buckley Town0-2
01/03/25HBC1 Vs Llandudno2-3

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/01/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs C(1-5
16/01/26HC( Vs Trefelin1-2
09/01/26ANewport City Vs C(1-1
02/01/26HC( Vs Cardiff Draconians2-1
26/12/25ATrefelin Vs C(3-0
20/12/25HC( Vs Aberystwyth Town1-0
13/12/25HC( Vs Llandudno2-1
28/11/25ACarmarthen Town Vs C(1-1
22/11/25ADolgellau Athletic Vs C(0-2
07/11/25HC( Vs Cambrian & Clydach2-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Bangor City 1876 FC
Bangor City 1876 FC
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.34
HomeLLDWW1.67
AwayLLLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%31%
AVG goals3.523.423.62
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %72%67%77%
Over 3.5 %44%38%50%
Scored1.701.791.62
Conceded1.821.622.00
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.58
HomeLWWWL1.78
AwayWDLDW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%39%
AVG goals3.142.893.43
Over 1.5 %82%78%87%
Over 2.5 %58%56%61%
Over 3.5 %34%19%52%
Scored1.861.742.00
Conceded1.281.151.43
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet30%30%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

Caerau (Ely) plays in Wales - FAW Championship
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LlandudnoLlandudno3080
87%
2.7
7722+55
3.3
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.7
-
2TrefelinTrefelin3078
83%
2.6
8317+66
3.3
93%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.6
-
3Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3076
80%
2.5
7520+55
3.2
87%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.7
-
4Airbus UKAirbus UK3075
80%
2.5
9322+71
3.8
93%
83%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.10.7
-
5HolywellHolywell3060
60%
2.0
7840+38
3.9
87%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.3
-
6Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3160
58%
1.9
6734+33
3.3
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.1
-
7Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3060
57%
2.0
4926+23
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.9
-
8Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3048
50%
1.6
5149+2
3.3
87%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
9RhylRhyl3046
47%
1.5
4655-9
3.4
80%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
10Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3045
37%
1.5
4538+7
2.8
67%
37%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3044
43%
1.5
3538-3
2.4
63%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
12GuilsfieldGuilsfield3043
43%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
77%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
13Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3041
40%
1.4
3845-7
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
14Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians3040
40%
1.3
5048+2
3.3
77%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
15Denbigh TownDenbigh Town3040
40%
1.3
5259-7
3.7
87%
77%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
16Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3037
30%
1.2
4447-3
3.0
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
17CaerswsCaersws3037
37%
1.2
4651-5
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
18Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers3037
37%
1.2
3949-10
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
19Treowen StarsTreowen Stars3037
33%
1.2
5163-12
3.8
90%
70%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
20Newport CityNewport City3037
30%
1.2
3648-12
2.8
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
21Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur3036
33%
1.2
4449-5
3.1
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
22PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch3035
33%
1.2
4553-8
3.3
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
23Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3034
30%
1.1
4651-5
3.2
80%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
24Afan LidoAfan Lido3030
30%
1.0
3257-25
3.0
67%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
25Buckley TownBuckley Town3030
30%
1.0
5077-27
4.2
90%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.6
-
26Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds3029
20%
1.0
4562-17
3.6
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
27Flint MountainFlint Mountain3029
30%
1.0
3961-22
3.3
83%
73%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
28Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3028
27%
0.9
4787-40
4.5
90%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.9
-
29Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons3125
16%
0.8
2653-27
2.5
68%
48%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
-
30Ruthin TownRuthin Town3023
20%
0.8
3664-28
3.3
77%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
31Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions3023
17%
0.8
2756-29
2.8
80%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
32Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3010
3%
0.3
2578-53
3.4
83%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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