Slavia Praha are favourites to win this match, and the overall shape of the match suggests a closely contested encounter. The recent form of both teams has been telling - Baník Ostrava have struggled after two straight defeats, while Slavia Praha are on a 4-game winning run.
The model predicts a 44% chance of an away win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 13.5%. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
Baník Ostrava have struggled at home, scoring 0 goals and conceding 2 on average against stronger opponents. Slavia Praha, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.92 goals and conceding 1.42 away to weaker opponents. The model's selections are Over 1.5 at 74.8%, Under 3.5 at 73.2% with a 7% edge, and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.7%. The probabilities for a home win, a draw, and an away win are 28%, 28%, and 44% respectively.
The away win by Slavia Praha extends their 4-game winning run. The final score was 0-4, with the actual result being an away win. The model correctly picked the away win, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection, the away win, was correct.
The model's selection to go over 1.5 goals hit, with a 74.8% probability. The selection to go under 3.5 goals missed, with a 73.2% probability. The selection to go over 21.5 fouls hit, with a 71.7% probability.
Baník Ostrava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.31 | 1.08 | 1.24 | 1.59 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.44 | 1.16 | 1.55 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Slavia Praha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.20 | 1.23 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 1.93 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 3.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 2.41 | 1.05 | 3.22 | 0.78 | 1.85 | 1.23 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Slavia Praha goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 13% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Baník Ostrava
Slavia Praha
Baník Ostrava| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 25.0 | 24.3 | 25.7 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 10.5 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 25.9 | 26.0 | 25.8 |
| vs Similar (39) | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 24.8 | 23.8 | 25.7 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 52% | 74% | 33% | 56% | 55% | 57% | 78% | 74% | 81% |
| % under line | 48% | 26% | 67% | 44% | 45% | 43% | 22% | 26% | 19% |
Slavia Praha| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 26.7 | 25.8 | 27.8 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 25.5 | 25.5 | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 29.5 | 29.3 | 29.8 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 11.4 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 25.9 | 24.5 | 27.2 |
| % over line | 59% | 50% | 68% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 83% | 75% | 91% |
| % under line | 41% | 50% | 32% | 46% | 52% | 40% | 17% | 25% | 9% |
Baník Ostrava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Slavia Praha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.47 | 1.33 | 0.53 | 1.07 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.27 | 0.36 | 1.67 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Baník Ostrava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Slavia Praha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.14 | 0.68 | 1.56 | 0.33 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 91.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 82.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 77.3% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +9.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -1.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.2% | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | +7.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71.9% | 1.36 | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.32 | +4.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/05/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/02/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/12/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/24 | A | 5-0 | |
| 17/12/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/08/23 | A | 1-0 |
Baník Ostrava| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 26/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
Slavia Praha| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | 10.2 | 40% | 3.6 | 60% | 27.8 | 100% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 28.4 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 3 | Sigma Olomouc | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | 9.4 | 60% | 2.8 | 20% | 26.4 | 60% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 4 | Slovan Liberec | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 1.8 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 9.4 | 40% | 6.8 | 100% | 27.2 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 47% |
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | 10.8 | 40% | 3.2 | 50% | 26.0 | 80% | 97 | 45 | 28 | 24 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 64% |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 31.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 9.0 | 25% | 4.0 | 67% | 21.2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Hradec Králové | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 45% |
| 9 | Teplice | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | 10.6 | 60% | 4.6 | 40% | 25.0 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 42% |
| 10 | Baník Ostrava | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 9.8 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 26.2 | 75% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 28.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 46% |
| 12 | Plzen | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 7.5 | 0% | 4.8 | 75% | 25.8 | 75% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 56% |
| 13 | Pardubice | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | 9.6 | 40% | 3.6 | 40% | 28.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 46% |
| 14 | Slovácko | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 20% | 8.0 | 40% | 3.4 | 40% | 34.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 15 | Artis | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.6 | 20% | 3.2 | 40% | 27.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 30% |
| 16 | Zlin | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 3.8 | 40% | 30.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 40% |