PythiaFootballBETA
Baranovichi and Bate Borisov are set to clash in the Belarus Premier League, with Bate Borisov favoured to secure an away win, according to the model's prediction. The expected total goals for this match stands at 3.3, indicating a high-scoring encounter.
In recent form, Baranovichi is coming off a defeat, having lost their last match 3-4 to FC Isloch Minsk R., while Bate Borisov is recovering from two straight defeats. However, the model still predicts an away win for Bate Borisov, with a 57% chance of success.
The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 10.2% probability. Baranovichi has averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.14 conceded at home, whereas Bate Borisov has averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 21.5 fouls (97.6%), Under 9.5 corners (96.6%), and Over 1.5 (85.0%). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 20%, 23%, and 57% respectively.
The result was a 2-2 draw, defying the model's call for an away win. Bate Borisov, the pre-match favourite with a 57% probability, failed to come through, as the model's selection was wrong. The model correctly identified the most likely total goals to be 3, with a 22% probability. Interestingly, the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 85% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selections of Under 21.5 fouls and Under 9.5 corners both missed, with probabilities of 97.6% and 96.6% respectively.
Baranovichi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.30 | 0.80 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 2.43 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.95 | 1.00 | 1.92 | 1.25 | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 3.57 | 0.29 | 3.67 | 0.67 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.57 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.90 | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.33 | 0.83 | 3.00 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Bate Borisov goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 10% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
BaranovichiBate BorisovBaranovichi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | - | 2% | 4% | 0% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | - | 98% | 96% | 100% | 0% | 0% | - |
Bate Borisov| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 12.0 | - | 12.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 27.5 | - | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (6) | - | - | - | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 12.0 | - | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 27.5 | - | 27.5 |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | - | 100% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | - | 0% | 58% | 62% | 54% | 0% | - | 0% |
Baranovichi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.43 | 1.19 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.05 | 0.55 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.43 | 0.14 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.30 | 0.85 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Baranovichi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.36 | 0.21 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.91 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.14 | 0.14 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 0.95 | 0.40 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Baranovichi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-4 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/10/25 | A | 0-2 |
Bate Borisov| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 5-0 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 21/09/25 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 |  FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 |  Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 |  FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 | Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 |  FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 |  ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 | Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 |  Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 |  Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 |  FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 |  Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 |  Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |